Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond

[clark3r]

8 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Yes given the previous two days were also very warm you'd be starting for a high baseline on the Saturday, its a 30C by 9am sort of day. With SST's already at early July levels sea breezes would also be less of an issue. 

I think the models have been on the Stella early today

[kold weather]

GFS probably would result in a 37-38c type situation. The models certainly agree on a probable warm-up, even if brief. Given Europe has been running very hot should we get a direct import it may well become exceptionally hot very rapidly.

At this point a 28-32C type event seems more than reasonable, but with the caveat that it wouldn't take much both for it to never make it here (and we stay with warm but nothing too impressive) nor would it take much for it to blow up into a real exceptional hot shot.

[Captain Shortwave]

6 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Yes given the previous two days were also very warm you'd be starting for a high baseline on the Saturday, its a 30C by 9am sort of day. With SST's already at early July levels sea breezes would also be less of an issue. 

An interesting surface pattern for Saturday. The winds are very slack and from the east, so essentially afternoon sea breezes at most and pretty still inland. It would feel like a furnace.

The UKMO is slightly flatter than the GFS at day 6, but would probably go in a similar direction for the end of next week. For the sake of balance, the ICON is not really going anything of note, just a couple of very warm days with winds remaining westerly for all.

[Eagle Eye]

The GFS is, let's say, on the warm side.

[StormChaseUK]

30c at 9am 

[minus10]

1 minute ago, Eagle Eye said:

The GFS is, let's say, on the warm side.

Heat Island effect of London in full prominence here...

[FetchCB]

2 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

30c at 9am 

Last time I saw that temp at 9am was 2003. 

Worth bearing in mind we are approaching summer solstice so the sun really packing a punch 

[Methuselah]

A tad on 'the warm side' indeed, @Eagle Eye!

Saturday's temps:     The M3: 

 

[Guest]

Just now, Ed Stone said:

A tad on 'the warm side' indeed, @Eagle Eye!

Saturday's temps:     The M3: 

 

Lol hope thats not the M3 I need to use it on the Sunday morning.....

[mb018538]

3 minutes ago, FetchCB said:

Last time I saw that temp at 9am was 2003. 

Worth bearing in mind we are approaching summer solstice so the sun really packing a punch 

It was above 30c here by 9am when we had the 38.7c day in July 2019…it’s all a bit exciting anyway. This for me is the equivalent of getting the -10c line covering the UK in January. Love both, but as a summer lover this is right up my street.

What will the other runs say!?

UKMO day 7…..wowzers  

[Don]

2 hours ago, Earthshine said:

Warmer than average JJA period with La Nina thrown in for good measure

Looks like the La Nina is being ignored there!

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

It was above 30c here by 9am when we had the 38.7c day in July 2019…it’s all a bit exciting anyway. This for me is the equivalent of getting the -10c line covering the UK in January. Love both, but as a summer lover this is right up my street.

What will the other runs say!?

It all reminds me of late June 1976: 35C in London at midday -- and it stayed at that all afternoon -- the next day (a Sunday?) Southampton peaked at 97 degrees Fahrenheit. I guess the Thames estuary is that much cooler in June?

[Guest]

9 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

It was above 30c here by 9am when we had the 38.7c day in July 2019…it’s all a bit exciting anyway. This for me is the equivalent of getting the -10c line covering the UK in January. Love both, but as a summer lover this is right up my street.

What will the other runs say!?

UKMO day 7…..wowzers  

Seems to have been a shift this evening, that is an exception chart. ECM over to you (please dont be the party pooper)

Edited June 10, 2022 by Alderc

[Guest]

The GFS ensembles have a taken a big jump upwards, the mean @850pha is now above 15C for three days down here. 

[Don]

3 minutes ago, Alderc said:

The GFS ensembles have a taken a big jump upwards, the mean @850pha is now above 15C for three days down here. 

That was my fear!  I can only see this hot spell gain traction now.

Edited June 10, 2022 by Don

[Frosty.]

I can see why this is a HOT topic.. …phew.. … BIG upgrade in the GEFS since the 0z!…could be a sizzler on the way..flaming June indeed! ️ ?  

[Earthshine]

20 minutes ago, Don said:

Looks like the La Nina is being ignored there!

Teleconnections weak for UK summer.  Stronger impacts in winter.

Gone bonkers 

[Methuselah]

13 minutes ago, jon snow said:

I can see why this is a HOT topic.. …phew.. … BIG upgrade in the GEFS since the 0z!…could be a sizzler on the way..flaming June indeed! ️ ?  

With any luck, once the heat gets in, it'll carry on right through September -- that should be enough time for us all to get used to it? Not that the models suggest any such thing!

[Don]

Just now, Ed Stone said:

With any luck, once the heat gets in, it'll carry on right through September -- that should be enough time for us all to get used to it? Not that the models suggest any such thing!

No thank you.... 

[Eagle Eye]

The overmixing of Dewpoints seems to be happening on a lot of the Models I guess then. This is teetering on the edge of being a possible thundery breakdown but I think that the atmosphere might be relatively dry in the day and will have to wait for air parcels to be replaced for anything to go off Thunderstorm wise. So in other words a strong CAP might be in place but if it breaks then that may stop a Convective mess forming and so may help Thunderstorm development, isolated as well, with the possibility for some strong low-level shear (that's only based off the latest tuns though and I don't think that's exactly what will happen). As well as that I would think that a proper Plume Thunderstorm would be possible from this, making its way across the channel and bringing the CAPE with it. With all the runs varying, something ridiculous could happen, or just a few Storms maybe firing off on one of the less capped days.

The GFS is ridiculous 

Let's talk about the CAPE over Northern France on the ECM though.

It's all a bit of fun because it's a while out yet but if this happened, all combined into one event, IMAGINE THE STORM THREAD .

Edited June 10, 2022 by Eagle Eye

[Methuselah]

13 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

The overmixing of Dewpoints seems to be happening on a lot of the Models I guess then. This is teetering on the edge of being a possible thundery breakdown but I think that the atmosphere might be relatively dry in the day and will have to wait for air parcels to be replaced for anything to go off Thunderstorm wise. So in other words a strong CAP might be in place but if it breaks then that may stop a Convective mess forming and so may help Thunderstorm development, isolated as well, with the possibility for some strong low-level shear (that's only based off the latest tuns though and I don't think that's exactly what will happen). As well as that I would think that a proper Plume Thunderstorm would be possible from this, making its way across the channel and bringing the CAPE with it. With all the runs varying, something ridiculous could happen, or just a few Storms maybe firing off on one of the less capped days.

The GFS is ridiculous 

Let's talk about the CAPE over Northern France on the ECM though.

It's all a bit of fun because it's a while out yet but if this happened, all combined into one event, IMAGINE THE STORM THREAD .

Now I am worried. I'm worried we might have another El Gordo on our hands!

[Eagle Eye]

11 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Now I am worried. I'm worried we might have another El Gordo on our hands!

2012 was mentioned as an analogue year on twitter by a pretty reliable source a while ago (can't remember exactly who though,pretty sure is was based off a Model that can compare analogue years),don't get me excited, I'll only end up disappointed, it wont happen (reverse psychology).

[Guest]

Would be surprised if ECM goes any else than  from here. 

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

2012 was mentioned as an analogue year on twitter by a pretty reliable source a while ago (can't remember exactly who though,pretty sure is was based off a Model that can compare analogue years),don't get me excited, I'll only end up disappointed, it wont happen (reverse psychology).

TBH, I don't put much faith in analogues, EE, but I'm pretty sure El Gordo was before 2012 anyway -- it might even have been during NW's infamous 'Shades of '76' summer. Who knows?  It's nae only the UK Meteorological Office what gets things embarrassingly wrong!

[Mark wheeler]

Ecm out to 144hrs so far .