Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

It's looking a very unstable blink and you'll miss it affair (which often happens in Nina settings) where a quick blast of heat can go across the UK before being swept away by unsettled conditions.

GFS and ECM go full on Nina payback in the following days....so it could be short term gain for some longer term pain in the week afterwards! 

ECM has almost a 20C drop in 36-48hrs across the south. 
 

It’s a long way off but all the models that go out that far that bring the heat in leave a rapid a bitter aftertaste. 

Edited June 10, 2022 by Alderc

[sheikhy]

I will take the ecm this morning but we defo need to see a more cleaner flow from it!!gfs and ukmo look better!!!but an improvement from the 12z last night!!

[MattStoke]

Looks similar to the GEM, to me.

[Captain Shortwave]

35 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

I presume the GEM hasn't fixed its problem with uppers in a heatwave, though?

One of Wednesday or Thursday looking good for a day at the beach on many runs this morning.

The heat is well in line with other output, the only difference is the slower and as such cleaner push northwards compared to the GFS.

The ECM has 850s of 22c across the south east at day 9.

 

I suspect that the more precise iteration that comes out later will show a very hot day on Saturday (Prior to this chart), given the 20c is touching the south coast on the previous frame.

[ANYWEATHER]

There's been on and off  output from models of some kind of plume event for next week modelled for a good few days now. Certainly caution needed, a very complex situation, but as always computer models struggle with the complexity of Mother nature. Whatever happens it looks to be a brief if not an illusive affair, and proper Summer looks like remain distant for some time to come......

[Frosty.]

Holy Carp! Day 9 ECM 0z op is just INSANE! ⛈ …I won’t bother showing day 10… for obvious reasons!  

[bluearmy]

Yet again we see a nw euro trough modelled in the extended output 

gfs has been laying with this for a few days and ec now has it in its timeframe 

another opportunity to see if this solution will verify or lift north once we get to day 6/7 output 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

2 hours ago, Alderc said:

Well interesting times, UKMO slowly coming on board with a warmer spell however like icon it looks much slower than GFS which deliver something a little more substantial. However GFS is also persistent in delivering a week of ‘payback’ weather post our one or two day warm spell and anchors a major trough over the uk for the remainder however I’m not really bothered this as 1. Looks very extreme and more importantly 2. I’m holiday. 
 

 

That low spinning round the UK like that on the GFS won't happen like that can almost gaurntee the 06z will be different.

GFS has a habit of doing that seen it so many times.. usually what happens is the warm spells get longer as the breakdown gets pushed back as the models try work it out.

This assumes that the warm spell even happens. I say warm spell, above average spell as we have been bang on average here for the last 8 weeks weather wise 

Edit: to add we only have to look at this week as an example where by we were due a washout weekend  didn't happen here and a very wet week didn't happen  here as low pressure was forecast to barrel in of the Atalantic but that never materialised 

Edited June 10, 2022 by Surrey

[sundog]

Wonder will this summer be like many recent ones? The odd plume here and there, very warm /hot for a few days ,every now and again. Like getting summer weather in bits and pieces, but when it's hot it's very hot. 

Edited June 10, 2022 by sundog

[cfbath]

I tend to only frequent or "lurk" within these forums in the run up to my beloved Glastonbury festival to see what ground conditions will be like in the days leading to it and also for overhead conditions when i'm on site myself. Everyone would have seen pictures in the past to show what rain onsite is capable of doing to the floor!

I love reading everyone's posts (although given it's less than 2 weeks away now i'd love them to be more positive for next weekend onwards!) 

I'd quite like it if the "payback" spoken about following the potential hot spell could wait until 27th June if possible please 

Keep up the good work all.

[Singularity]

27 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Yet again we see a nw euro trough modelled in the extended output 

gfs has been laying with this for a few days and ec now has it in its timeframe 

another opportunity to see if this solution will verify or lift north once we get to day 6/7 output 

It’s become evident to me that ECM/EPS has some of GFS’ tendency to lower AAM too far, which has lately led to the very negative AAM pattern being expected too soon. 

I imagine this has to do with shorter timescale interference with the La Niña base state being picked up on more nearer the time.

It makes sense for AAM to drop again later next week before a probable rebound, but perhaps not far enough to force a full-on -NAO, NW Euro trough pattern.

With which in mind, in the 10-16 day range, I feel that yesterday’s GFS 18z is a more useful guide than today’s GFS 00z.

[mb018538]

If you are a summer lover then look away now....the period from 20th June-11th July on the ECM weekly updates last night is ghastly.
Low pressure dominating for three weeks solid!

The day 10 low pressure over the UK does have some support - though it's not universal yet. I'd be feeling a bit edgy though for prospects beyond next weekend.



The ECM op run was overly pessimistic - but there is a clear downward trend beyond next weekend:

Edited June 10, 2022 by mb018538

[sheikhy]

12 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

If you are a summer lover then look away now....the period from 20th June-11th July on the ECM weekly updates last night is ghastly.
Low pressure dominating for three weeks solid!

The day 10 low pressure over the UK does have some support - though it's not universal yet. I'd be feeling a bit edgy though for prospects beyond next weekend.



The ECM op run was overly pessimistic - but there is a clear downward trend beyond next weekend:

A plume for next week but then being punished for it after that with low pressure and plenty of rain!how many times have i seen this happen to us over the years!!so depressing!!!

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

GFS and ECM go full on Nina payback in the following days....so it could be short term gain for some longer term pain in the week afterwards! 

.......... and closely  supported by these charts too..

[Frosty.]

The ECMWF 0z ensemble mean certainly becomes much more summery across southern u k for a few days around mid month! …hopefully longer term will trend better on future runs!  

[sheikhy]

34 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

.......... and closely  supported by these charts too..

These mushynomalies are too negative to look at recently!!need some high pressure and a bit of positivity injected in these!!!

[Methuselah]

2 hours ago, jon snow said:

Holy Carp! Day 9 ECM 0z op is just INSANE! ⛈ …I won’t bother showing day 10… for obvious reasons!  

I'm not at all sure I like the idea of 22C T850s, Karl. Especially not without any hint of an easterly undercut!

[sheikhy]

Gfs 06z it looks like a race against time between the plume and the northerly afterward!!!can we manage a plume before it gets shoved further south!!!?

[mb018538]

1 hour ago, sheikhy said:

Gfs 06z it looks like a race against time between the plume and the northerly afterward!!!can we manage a plume before it gets shoved further south!!!?

It's looking like a very swift breakdown after. It manages 3 days of heat though, peaking at 32c on Friday, which is about what we can expect in this setup.
I'm just hoping it doesn't go full on low pressure over the UK for a week after. The 6z does it again with a gale force deep low pressure stuck over us!

[sheikhy]

12 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

It's looking like a very swift breakdown after. It manages 3 days of heat though, peaking at 32c on Friday, which is about what we can expect in this setup.
I'm just hoping it doesn't go full on low pressure over the UK for a week after. The 6z does it again with a gale force deep low pressure stuck over us!

Man i got a terrible feeling we gona pay the price!!today its beautiful outside!!currently 21 degrees here and sunny!!

[clark3r]

I really can’t moan at the 06z warming up from Tuesday, with peak at the moment on Friday, if you add the normal couple of degrees on top we may peak at 33/34 Friday and still have values as high as 28 on Saturday, still a long way a head and lots more changes expected 

[Methuselah]

Well, I'm not entirely convinced by talk of a hot spell (though one does look increasingly likely) let alone mention of any post-heat northerly.

[mushymanrob]

4 minutes ago, clark3r said:

I really can’t moan at the 06z warming up from Tuesday, with peak at the moment on Friday, if you add the normal couple of degrees on top we may peak at 33/34 Friday and still have values as high as 28 on Saturday, still a long way a head and lots more changes expected 

Exactly, commenting on what the models are currently showing is all well and good, but this development is far from nailed.

[Don]

4 hours ago, sundog said:

Wonder will this summer be like many recent ones? The odd plume here and there, very warm /hot for a few days ,every now and again. Like getting summer weather in bits and pieces, but when it's hot it's very hot. 

That's been the trend during otherwise mediocre summers in recent years.  2018 was very hot but never reached the dizzy heights recorded during the summers of 2019 and 2020!

Edited June 10, 2022 by Don

[Earthshine]

Despite a big drop in AAM later in the month I wouldn't worry too much since it will likely recover into July.  Remember that many of the classic summers started off with a pretty meh June but quickly settled down into July.