Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond

[MattStoke]

There’s the 20’C isotherm into the south again on the GFS 18z  

[Mark wheeler]

Its not over until the Navgem 18z sings .

[Captain Shortwave]

The pub run isn’t as extreme as the 12z and the cold front moves southwards quicker.

On the other hand the post plume event now has this instead of a deep trough near or east of the U.K.

 

High pressure still there and it is warm for all on this run (Back to the low twenties but pleasant enough). It looks like this should hang on to day 10.

Edited June 10, 2022 by Captain Shortwave

[Singularity]

The 18z GFS reminds me of the strange 850s record-setting June 2019 event with the unusual means to limit surface heat in the UK; an unusually strong ridge building across from the west.

Doesn’t do so as much on this run as back then though. That time was bonkers with a NE flow keeping max temps mainly mid-high 20s when 850s were widely low 20s.

Curious to see the Atlantic pattern adjusting so much flatter. AAM drop being toned down, perhaps?

[StormChaseUK]

Looks like the long awaited summer spell is finally about to arrive.  18z suggesting the warmth becomes not as intense but sticks around longer. 

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

The anomolys have been too a bit far south with any troughing. The overall pattern at day 8 and 12 pretty good but they’ve been painting a too miserable outlook for our part of nw europe. This has been an ongoing discussion on here through the past week. 

Yep, although the general pattern was more or less correct, or looks like it will be, they certainly over estimated the troughing this week, my punt of "average unsettled" looks like being on the pesimistic side, ..... But im still confident that we will turn cooler from the Northwest next weekend onwards.

[clark3r]

Very good run again from the gfs this morning, if you add the normal couple of degrees then Friday we could be looking at 32/33 degrees Saturday 34/35 degrees possibly 36 degrees going to be interesting how this plans out 

there is like a 15 degree drop in temperature on the Sunday though crazy extremes of weather 

Edited June 11, 2022 by clark3r

[Cheshire Freeze]

19 minutes ago, clark3r said:

Very good run again from the gfs this morning, if you add the normal couple of degrees then Friday we could be looking at 32/33 degrees Saturday 34/35 degrees possibly 36 degrees going to be interesting how this plans out 

there is like a 15 degree drop in temperature on the Sunday though crazy extremes of weather 

And it goes out with the biggest whimper you could ever imagine after being bathed in 20c uppers. The very least I expect after uppers like that is a decent thunderstorm.

[Ben Sainsbury]

6 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

And it goes out with the biggest whimper you could ever imagine after being bathed in 20c uppers. The very least I expect after uppers like that is a decent thunderstorm.

This is not something I'm too bothered about at this range. Let's just get the heat in first and see what happens as often in these setups, thunderstorms don't appear in the hi-res models until we're at very short ranges. Classic loaded gun setup looking likely, where all it takes is enhanced convergence or increased moisture to kick off a beast!

Edited June 11, 2022 by Ben Sainsbury

[mb018538]

 

Low to mid 30s again showing for Saturday on the 00z run. Big drop on Sunday, so It could be a short but sweet blast here of a couple of days, but boy it could pack a punch.

Edited June 11, 2022 by mb018538

[MattStoke]

Just now, mb018538 said:

 

Low to mid 30s again showing for Saturday on the 00z run. Big drop on Sunday, so I could a short but sweet blast here of a couple of days, but boy it could pack a punch.

Add on the usual 2/3’C and we could be challenging the June record of 35.6’C if such a chart were to verify.

[Guest]

12 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Add on the usual 2/3’C and we could be challenging the June record of 35.6’C if such a chart were to verify.

It’s amazing we’re talking like this given most of the country hasn’t been above 22-23C so far this year. It would feel hot. 

[The Tall Weatherman]

50 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

This is not something I'm too bothered about at this range. Let's just get the heat in first and see what happens as often in these setups, thunderstorms don't appear in the hi-res models until we're at very short ranges. Classic loaded gun setup looking likely, where all it takes is enhanced convergence or increased moisture to kick off a beast!

Talking about storms it looks like the GFS has activated its spoof mode again !

[MattStoke]

UKMO the latest to have the 20’C isotherm into the U.K. Wafting in across the South West by early Friday before likely spreading across more of the south through the day.

[MattStoke]

And the ECM. The heat is on!  

 

[thestixx]

I've seen a few allusions to this outcome after next week's hot spell. My heart goes out to the Glastonbury goers if this trough sets up over the UK. Where else can be It go though? Huge highs either side..

Edited June 11, 2022 by thestixx
Typo

[Man With Beard]

22 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

And the ECM. The heat is on!  

 

Consistency quite good over recent runs. But it does require perfection to get this kind of heat to the UK. So still early days in forecasting terms. If it's still there tomorrow night...

[mb018538]

Starting to get a little bit more clarity today.

Thursday looks like being a warm day. Friday could be very warm or very hot.....and Saturday is possibly starting to emerge as the bullseye day when everything aligns and the heat peaks.

ECM shows 30c Saturday. Probably a little undercooked with upper air that high, but a long way off at this stage.


GEM goes for 31c on Friday and 32c Saturday:



GFS going 31c Friday and 35c Saturday:



All of this still 6-7 days away and subject to lots of change at this stage of course!

[mb018538]

Interestingly there are actually more GFS ensemble runs that don't bring in any extreme heat. Most are clustered between 10-15c at 850hpa, which would still mean a very warm day in the mid to high 20s....but the Op and control runs sticking out like a sore thumb there.

[mb018538]

Sorry for all of the spam and posts this morning!

I should also probably point out that amid the chaos and extreme runs that we've been seeing the last couple of days...Wednesday is actually looking very warm (if not hot) in a few areas. The UKV run this morning has quite a large area showing 25-27c with mainly clear skies from a line around Merseyside/S. York/Lincs south.
Apologies to parts of Scotland where it shows 9/10c. That's vile.

[clark3r]

3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Interestingly there are actually more GFS ensemble runs that don't bring in any extreme heat. Most are clustered between 10-15c at 850hpa, which would still mean a very warm day in the mid to high 20s....but the Op and control runs sticking out like a sore thumb there.

Mmm we need to get through to Monday Tuesday to get a clearer picture of the potential heat, still all to play for 

[Captain Shortwave]

A fair amount of differences to work through regarding late next week and the following Weekend. Some questions regarding how quickly the heat will push northwards and how long it can hang on for. The ECM does take a different path to the others in so much as the Atlantic trough does dig south through the UK (Though it is nowhere near as bad as the previous UK trough solution). The UKMO looks like it could hold the heat into the south into Sunday as the solution is a little slower than the GFS. The GEM still doesn’t quite get the level of heat shown on the other models, but it is better than yesterdays (850s of 16c across the south for a couple of days).

The ICON is still not buying this solution at the moment, offering a flatter solution with a north/south split. There are a lot of complications due to the amplified upstream pattern and as such questions on how certain areas of low pressure will behave.

Edited June 11, 2022 by Captain Shortwave

[RabbitEars]

12 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

Some fun charts from the ECM ensembles. First, the absolute maximum chart for any one spot:

Second, the bottom 10% of runs. Still warm!

And this is the middle run of the 51 runs (not the average, this is the 26th ranked run in any one spot out of 51). Hot!

So what's the surface weather likely to look like in this scenario.  When we have 850s showing the opposite we hope for wintery snowy conditions and sometimes...we get them.

Is this muggy, sultry, humid and possibly thundery or is this wall to wall blue skies and factor 100 sunscreen? Either way I suspect its fans/aircon (which we can't afford the electricity to run) and plenty of water to drink! 

[sheikhy]

Not the best ecm this morning in terms of more widespread heat!!gimme the gfs and ukmo all day long!!

[mb018538]

13 minutes ago, RabbitEars said:

So what's the surface weather likely to look like in this scenario.  When we have 850s showing the opposite we hope for wintery snowy conditions and sometimes...we get them.

Is this muggy, sultry, humid and possibly thundery or is this wall to wall blue skies and factor 100 sunscreen? Either way I suspect its fans/aircon (which we can't afford the electricity to run) and plenty of water to drink! 

Impossible to say at this stage - there could be troughs etc embedded in this flow by then. If it's straight off the continent without any spoiler features & with 850s above 15c then expect dry furnace heat, surface temps 30c+ and humidity below 50%. If we see 850s around 20c then a chance of 35c.
If some moisture gets scooped up from Biscay then it could be a nasty soupy heat with humidity up above 50% and the chance of storms.
Will probably be a few days before any finer details start to emerge. Just speculation at the moment, there are loads of things that could affect conditions.