Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond

[Man With Beard]

Well all 3 main models have the 20C uppers line touching the UK by D7. Wow!

[Frosty.]

Tonight’s ECMWF 12z ensemble mean is a doozy in these timeframes!..for the south it becomes very summery for a time!…i think at this point we should just get the heat in first and see how things go from there, there’s still time for favourable changes beyond that?…I’ve never seen day 10 verify..ever!

 

 

[Captain Shortwave]

ECM ens out, the mean 850s across central southern England reach or exceed 15c. The other point is (and is seen across the other models) is that the period after this potential brief spell of heat is looking far drier than previous suites, more a cooler north westerly with high pressure in the Atlantic exerting some degree of influence. 
That said expect a lot of swings to be expected in the output, there are elements that look quite similar to the June 2019 spell where we had an extremely hot airmass to the south and a messy surface pattern with the Euro ridge and another amplified ridge in the Atlantic. Given the week 2 trends, you do wonder whether high pressure might end up more resilient and effectively squeezes out any rainfall for most and offers the chance of keeping warmer conditions (especially in the south).

Day 7 mean 850s

   

Day 9 mean pattern

Edited June 10, 2022 by Captain Shortwave

[MattStoke]

3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Well all 3 main models have the 20C uppers line touching the UK by D7. Wow!

Quite a bit more than touching! It’s handy that we can now see 3-6 hour frames on the ECM instead of the 24 hour jumps between one frame and the next.

Edited June 10, 2022 by MattStoke

[Don]

3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Well all 3 main models have the 20C uppers line touching the UK by D7. Wow!

And to think how rare that would have been 30 years ago.  Nothing out of the ordinary now!

[clark3r]

6 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Well all 3 main models have the 20C uppers line touching the UK by D7. Wow!

Will be getting excited if it is is still showing 3/4 days out fingers crossed 

Just now, clark3r said:

Will be getting excited if it is is still showing 3/4 out fingers crossed 

 

Edited June 10, 2022 by clark3r

[Mark wheeler]

 

[minus10]

How often do you see the op go 'off the scale' with the mean at 15 850s on gfs.

An all be it brief mountain of heat...

[Man With Beard]

Some fun charts from the ECM ensembles. First, the absolute maximum chart for any one spot:

Second, the bottom 10% of runs. Still warm!

And this is the middle run of the 51 runs (not the average, this is the 26th ranked run in any one spot out of 51). Hot!

[Methuselah]

27 minutes ago, minus10 said:

How often do you see the op go 'off the scale' with the mean at 15 850s on gfs.

An all be it brief mountain of heat...

And not that it's by any means cold once the extreme heat goes away? I do suspect the heat will return, maybe in mid to late July?

[clark3r]

On 07/06/2022 at 17:56, clark3r said:

Latest gfs run shows quite a few warm days in the se 26 possible, with exceptional heat in France, won’t take too much tweaks to get some of the heat from France if it materialises

Happy so far with the tweaks let’s hope they continue, we all deserve some of that heat

[Mark wheeler]

59 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Quite a bit more than touching! It’s handy that we can now see 3-6 hour frames on the ECM instead of the 24 hour jumps between one frame and the next.

Where Matt ? Thanks in advance .

[MattStoke]

1 minute ago, Mark wheeler said:

Where Matt ? Thanks in advance .

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf_hres.php?ech=6&mode=1&carte=0#

Edited June 10, 2022 by MattStoke

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, RabbitEars said:

@MATTWOLVES and any other peeps who track the anomalies? Why wasn’t this heat up shown? I’m sure I remember you saying that the anomalies were showing cooler more average features over the next few weeks? Genuine question as I still don’t understand much and I don’t track things run to run 

Because the Anomalies are the mean charts for the 6-10 and 8-14 day period.

Short lived features are unlikely to impact on these charts.

The outlook remains unsettled and turning cooler next weekend.

[Mark wheeler]

3 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Because the Anomalies are the mean charts for the 6-10 and 8-14 day period.

Short lived features are unlikely to impact on these charts.

The outlook remains unsettled and turning cooler next weekend.

To be honest , unless I dreamt it ( I hope not ) I swear you kind of called this out a few days ago as a possibility. 

[Snowy L]

2 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Because the Anomalies are the mean charts for the 6-10 and 8-14 day period.

Short lived features are unlikely to impact on these charts.

The outlook remains unsettled and turning cooler next weekend.

High pressure is over us for a week. Don't know why anomalies are seen as something special. Just like every other model a few weeks back, first the high was over the UK, then the high was touching the south, then low pressure was over us. 

[Mark wheeler]

8 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf_hres.php?ech=6&mode=1&carte=0#

Wow thanks, this has gone straight in to my favourites list .

[bluearmy]

1 hour ago, RabbitEars said:

@MATTWOLVES and any other peeps who track the anomalies? Why wasn’t this heat up shown? I’m sure I remember you saying that the anomalies were showing cooler more average features over the next few weeks? Genuine question as I still don’t understand much and I don’t track things run to run 

The cpc anomoly charts are based on day 8 (6/10) and day 12(8/14). this plume is driven by the cut off low to the west of Iberia.  This feature wasn’t a mean anomaly at day 12 on the nwp. way too far away for something like that to show, infact, todays output shows it as an upper low but it’s still not going to show as a convincing plume driving upper flow. It may well do by tomorrows 00z but then that at day 7 and day 8 will probably be beyond it. 
 

as rob says, these charts are a macro guidance tool. 

[Paul]

On 10/06/2022 at 21:57, Mark wheeler said:

Where Matt ? Thanks in advance .

You can also see this on netweather.

ECMWF Weather Charts - Netweather.tv

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

---

Weather charts from the ECMWF model - updated twice daily

We've updated the metoffice global model recently to show 3 hourly slots or to 168 hours as well.

 

Metoffice Global Model | Netweather

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

---

Charts from the Met Office global forecasting model

 

[Mark wheeler]

5 minutes ago, Paul said:

You can also see this on netweather.

ECMWF Weather Charts - Netweather.tv

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

---

Weather charts from the ECMWF model - updated twice daily

We've updated the metoffice global model recently to show 3 hourly slots or to 168 hours as well.

 

Metoffice Global Model | Netweather

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

---

Charts from the Met Office global forecasting model

 

Thanks, this is brilliant news  . Just been fleeting in and out recently hoping for something to crop up so sorry if this is all old news to you all . 

[mushymanrob]

15 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

To be honest , unless I dreamt it ( I hope not ) I swear you kind of called this out a few days ago as a possibility. 

 

In convo with Blue Army, we were discussing the developing situation and he pointed out that a plume was possible to which i agreed

15 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

High pressure is over us for a week. Don't know why anomalies are seen as something special. Just like every other model a few weeks back, first the high was over the UK, then the high was touching the south, then low pressure was over us. 

Then you havnt been paying attention... im not going to go into a detailed explanation again... ignore them if you chose.

[bluearmy]

20 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

High pressure is over us for a week. Don't know why anomalies are seen as something special. Just like every other model a few weeks back, first the high was over the UK, then the high was touching the south, then low pressure was over us. 

The anomolys have been too a bit far south with any troughing. The overall pattern at day 8 and 12 pretty good but they’ve been painting a too miserable outlook for our part of nw europe. This has been an ongoing discussion on here through the past week. 

[JayAlmeida]

On 03/06/2022 at 19:37, SqueakheartLW said:

It would seem the models keep toying with the idea of low pressure just out to our west giving the chance of brief bursts of heat from the south at times. Here are several examples from the most recent output.

GFS 12z

There isn't a whole lot to pick from on the GFS and GFS is less keen for a warmer or hot outlook.

P22

P25

Both of these options give a brief burst of heat, particularly further east and south and could potentially bring thundery activity in off the continent. Also storms could be triggered as the fresher air pushes in from the west into this heat.

GEM 00z

The GEM has been more bullish for a warmer or hotter outlook compared with the GFS and there's more of a selection of charts to choose from here

Control

P19

P14

P07

P10

P13

    As with the GFS but only a bigger selection but the theme is generally the same. Low pressure out to the west and a burst of heat ahead of it. Some are more widespread heat whilst others are more of a glancing blow but all have a thunderstorm risk and chances of 30C + maxes in the mix for some.

GFS Extended

Now for some real heat chances with some fun from the GFS Extended run today. 2 members caught my eye in particular.

GFS Extended P09     +444 hours (Thu 21st June 2022)

This member very much has us under the grip of heat and with the +15C isotherm very much covering most of the UK and the +20C isotherm very much over the whole of England then with this wind direction the east of England could see some very high temperatures from this setup if sunshine is widespread.

However with pressure quite low here then a lot of home grown thunderstorms could be sparked off here and if any cold front moves into this heat then that could trigger even more storms too.

GFS Extended P21     +666 hours (Wed 29th June 2022)

I have saved the best one till last and when you see the 850hpa chart you'll soon see why

This has most of England and Wales under the grip of some quite extreme heat for late June with like the previous option the +20C isotherm very much over all of England and this time Wales as well. The big one for me here is the +25C isotherm which is into the south of England too and some serious heat is just over the channel too.

Note that thundery low on the 500mb chart forming in that heat as well as the wind direction ahead of this. Could be the perfect recipe for a June record to fall, a date record or if things fell right an all time record.

This post from last week seems to have predicted the pattern that all the models seem to now be hinting at. Congrats to the OP for compiling the charts that's mighty impressive considering the range.

[Don]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

And not that it's by any means cold once the extreme heat goes away? I do suspect the heat will return, maybe in mid to late July?

Perhaps like what happened during summers 2019 and 2020?  IF the UK is subject to extreme heat as modelled for next week, I too suspect it will return sometime in July as what happened in July 2019.  It was a similar story in 2020 when we had the brief surge of extreme heat on the final day of July, for it to return during the second week of August.  

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

Because the Anomalies are the mean charts for the 6-10 and 8-14 day period.

Short lived features are unlikely to impact on these charts.

The outlook remains unsettled and turning cooler next weekend.

Just too add Rob, I wasn't having a pop at you over your good work on the noaa charts....more of a dig at those 3 and 4 week long range anomalies from the ec46...they very often send us up the garden path with Heights towards the NW during the winter months and more often than not are miles out...which tbh is to be expected at such a timeframe. Far to many variables at play with UK conditions to nail down a pattern at such a long range.

Check out the 18z guys...the heat pump cut off low looks to be our friend...it could get very warm...even hot....for how long is as always subject to change...but my thoughts are we could see similar set ups as we move through next month! I'm not promising a 2018...far from it...but there will be occasions when it will get very warm possibly hot....

Breakdowns and thundery activity also a risk....there is at least some interest to be found right now!

Ok lads and lasses I'm off to watch chainsaw massacre remake now...to ease the tension

Edited June 10, 2022 by MATTWOLVES