Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond

[mushymanrob]

13 minutes ago, Alderc said:

We can't forget about the GEM model 

 

 

.............. you can....

[Frosty.]

Tonight’s ECMWF 12z ensemble mean hints at a very summery spell developing across at least southern u k…for a time!…fingers crossed it’s on to something in the mid range and that longer term into the last third of June improves on subsequent runs!… ️ ? …something like the end of the Ecm 0z op will do nicely!  

Edited June 9, 2022 by jon snow

[Guest]

25 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

.............. you can....

Well the verification stats suggest otherwise. All of the them taking a hit at the moment but the GEM regular verifies high than GFS & UKMO.

[Bradley in Kent]

Evening all, been a while since my last post, hello.

Like others I'm holding back as a week is a long time, but by the weekend we'll start to have an idea especially on the West side of the Atlantic. 

Low pressures can be a heat lovers friend especially when one reins the one in front back encouraging heights to build in front.

For that though you need a really deep trough off the Eastern Seaboard. Too far North you just end up with heights in the mid-Atlantic with lows bumbling over the top, worse still,  ridges towards greenland.

So, all in all, time to watch what happens over there

[Panayiotis]

On 05/06/2022 at 04:14, Panayiotis said:

Don’t think it’s a bad thing having low pressure to the SW/W; does give way to southerly winds if we can get HP building ahead/over Europe. A potential for a hot to very hot setup + convective thunderstorms (I.e plumes). At the end of the day we want high pressure over the UK not over the Azores. Interesting to see how this develops over the next few days ….

Nice to see this prediction finally being shown in the models. Obviously we still have a few days left for things to go pear shaped but it’s looking promising…

[sheikhy]

Might be speaking to soon but gfs 18z looking really good at 120 hours!!

[JayAlmeida]

55 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Might be speaking to soon but gfs 18z looking really good at 120 hours!!

I have seen the models push heat and warmth back but the GFS 18z brings it forward by a full day compared to the 12z. 144 hours is pretty close with regards to reliability and would make the GFS look very bad (not for the first time this month) if the suggested setup fails to verify.

 

Interesting to see that the max temps have been downgraded aswell

 

If it does come off the GFS was actually the model that spotted the trend first. All to be revealed over the next few days I suppose.

Edited June 9, 2022 by JayAlmeida

[Captain Shortwave]

The models this morning tending to bring that cut off low in play earlier (Well except the GFS, which already was going for a more progressive solution).

Day 6 UKMO

 

GFS

 

Turning very warm on Wednesday with 30c possible on Thursday from the GFS. The UKMO similar with a breakdown occurring later on Thursday into Friday. Obviously a long and hotter plume would come from the movement of this low being delayed by a day(ish), any longer and there is the risk with cool air from the north might block of advection northwards of hot air from the south.

The GEM is coming out now, but is in a similar position to the rest at day 5.

[Guest]

Well interesting times, UKMO slowly coming on board with a warmer spell however like icon it looks much slower than GFS which deliver something a little more substantial. However GFS is also persistent in delivering a week of ‘payback’ weather post our one or two day warm spell and anchors a major trough over the uk for the remainder however I’m not really bothered this as 1. Looks very extreme and more importantly 2. I’m holiday. 
 

 

[The Tall Weatherman]

The GEM to the end of the 00z run is playing out 850hpa temps pushing far into southern england, if the run is slightly longer that is !

[Captain Shortwave]

An operational run getting the 24c isotherm into the UK…

 

The GEM is slower than the GFS, but ultimately ends up hotter, though the timing is slightly off for a proper scorcher given the heat on offer.

[clark3r]

Well looks like a nice warm up Wednesday Thursday and prob another one Friday, not as good as yesterdays runs let’s see what the ECM will bring, be nice to see some upgrades at the weekend

[Guest]

Well the GFS ensembles are quite split, there’s a grouping similar to the Ops run that have the ‘blink and you’ll miss it’ scenario while a pretty large number have the slower UKMO / GEM keeping the warmth in for 3-4days but slightly later. 

 

[mb018538]

Pretty messy this morning - back end of next week does still have support for some temporary heat though. Perhaps from Thursday onwards depending on timings.

GEM Op as others have stated showing 24c 850s in 8 days time (though perhaps annoyingly they occur at midnight!), but still a couple of days into the 30s C



GFS just has Thursday touching 30c



UKMO at this stage has 28c maxima, with not quite so much of the heat making it:



Over to you ECM...

[Man With Beard]

45 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

An operational run getting the 24c isotherm into the UK…

 

The GEM is slower than the GFS, but ultimately ends up hotter, though the timing is slightly off for a proper scorcher given the heat on offer.

I presume the GEM hasn't fixed its problem with uppers in a heatwave, though?

One of Wednesday or Thursday looking good for a day at the beach on many runs this morning.

[sheikhy]

Ecm really struggling to get on bored this morning and until it comes around im afraid you can forget about a plume!!although ukmo is a surprising upgrade!!

[Guest]

Looks like @T144 ECM is going for the slow load. Would’t be surprised to see quite an extreme run from here. 
 

Edited June 10, 2022 by Alderc

[mb018538]

4 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Looks like @T144 ECM is going for the slow load. Would be surprised to see quite an extreme run from here. 
 

Prepare to be surprised!

[Guest]

Just now, mb018538 said:

Prepare to be surprised!

Lol was meant to say ‘wouldn’t’ there was only one place that T144 chart was going and it was

 

[Guest]

7 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Prepare to be surprised!

Well I was not expecting this to be the T216 slide

 

[clark3r]

I will take ECM

[The Tall Weatherman]

The GEM is a joke waiting to happen !

[Guest]

1 minute ago, The Tall Weatherman said:

The GEM is a joke waiting to happen !

ECM is exactly the same and has the 23C isotherm into the south. Interestingly none of the models hinting at ridiculous dew points or CAPE (like they normally do at this stage) and absolutely zero thundery breakdown. 

[mb018538]

It's looking a very unstable blink and you'll miss it affair (which often happens in Nina settings) where a quick blast of heat can go across the UK before being swept away by unsettled conditions.

GFS and ECM go full on Nina payback in the following days....so it could be short term gain for some longer term pain in the week afterwards! 

[Man With Beard]

Oh it's just for fun...

but seriously, the models this morning are starting to get keen on something hot during the second half of next week.