Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond

[mushymanrob]

3 hours ago, bluearmy said:

That 8/14 looks pretty poor to me with the upper trough centred on nw Europe and ridging too far to our east to hold it back - Anyway, day 12 is still some way into the distance 

 

The point is that its changed from the previous one, not by much but in the right direction. By lifting the trough Northwards/Northeastwards its finially allowing the Azores high to become more dominant and with pressure on the high side over Europe then this isnt bad. It rules out a 2012 style June with a Southerly tracking jet. The upper trough isnt overly deep either.
Temperatures wont be overly summery, but the general conditions shouldnt be bad and IF this change carries on evolving then towards late month we could see some very pleasant weather.

[StormChaseUK]

Surprising how the pattern just seems to repeat, a plume of warmer air nearly makes it in then down swoops the low pressure from NW, x 20 times.

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 6z… I just buried my head in the sand and pretended everything would turn out peachy!.. !…at least some did! ️…my message is, don’t take the weather too seriously…  

[dryfie]

7 hours ago, mb018538 said:

All looking very average and 'meh' indeed. 

 

Morning ECM really shows the rainfall starting to pile up in the NW. Scotland especially looking at risk of flooding. Temperatures average to below average, suppressed in unsettled conditions. Best of the conditions towards the SE.

Apologies but I can only see an insignificant half of the UK on most of those.  Please could you reload?

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Looking at the icon I would say Low pressure moves NE next week and conditions look pretty good away from the NE...West and SW is best perhaps. Plenty of decent weather on offer but that risk of rain and showers further N/NE

Turned out grand again here folks...im sensing the ice cream van is getting close...me dog can't wait...he's getting ready to cue

[StormChaseUK]

It's trying, slowly to recover and produce warmth.

[Cambrian]

Some warmer afternoons creeping in to the 7-9 day range according to the 12z GFS op. 20-24 degrees for much of central and eastern England a week today, a reasonable 16-20 degrees for many other parts, next Wednesday typically beating today by around 4-6 degrees. Most places dry too. 

 

Some rain moves across central and northern parts from the west next Thursday (day 8), further south staying dry but cooler than the day before.
 

A week Friday (day 9) temperatures quickly back up again to the Wednesday’s values, responding to the sunshine as the rain clears away. 

 

Typical of June, northwestern parts of both Scotland and Ireland cooler with more frequent spells of cloud and rain. But for many other parts, on the frequent fine afternoons between occasional cloudier damp spells, with the high June sun, showing plenty of potential for warming up very nicely. 

[Guest]

I see the pub run from GFS was on the Jaeger last night? 
 

35C next Friday. 
 

[Captain Shortwave]

Nothing like that on the 00z, though to be frank I would probably be binning the GFS output at the moment given it is an outlier handling that cut off low (It continues to drag this north east whilst the others tend to hold it close to the Azores where it fills).

Not a bad set of runs so far, low pressure seemingly more likely to remain close to Iceland, so there is a good chance that dry conditions will hold across the south and potentially push northwards in time if heights over Europe are allowed to extend northwards.

UKMO

 

GEM

 

The GEM gets temperatures into the mid (or possibly high twenties) in the south from the middle of next week onwards.

Just for a laugh, here is the 850 profile from pet 1 of the GEFs…

completely stupid 

Edited June 9, 2022 by Captain Shortwave

[tight isobar]

15 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Nothing like that on the 00z, though to be frank I would probably be binning the GFS output at the moment given it is an outlier handling that cut off low (It continues to drag this north east whilst the others tend to hold it close to the Azores where it fills).

Not a bad set of runs so far, low pressure seemingly more likely to remain close to Iceland, so there is a good chance that dry conditions will hold across the south and potentially push northwards in time if heights over Europe are allowed to extend northwards.

UKMO

 

GEM

 

The GEM gets temperatures into the mid (or possibly high twenties) in the south from the middle of next week onwards.

Just for a laugh, here is the 850 profile from pet 1 of the GEFs…

completely stupid 

.. maybe not so??!. The moggeys also sliding in the same park..and a start of support from the reflecting notes

[Captain Shortwave]

23 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

.. maybe not so??!. The moggeys also sliding in the same park..and a start of support from the reflecting notes

That assumes the GFS has the handling of that low correct. At the moment I consider it unlikely. That said the general trend into the heart of next week looks decent.

 

Winds still from the west, but feeling pretty warm, especially in the south that might tap into some of the warmth over the continent.

Edited June 9, 2022 by Captain Shortwave

[Guest]

37 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Nothing like that on the 00z, though to be frank I would probably be binning the GFS output at the moment given it is an outlier handling that cut off low (It continues to drag this north east whilst the others tend to hold it close to the Azores where it fills).

Not a bad set of runs so far, low pressure seemingly more likely to remain close to Iceland, so there is a good chance that dry conditions will hold across the south and potentially push northwards in time if heights over Europe are allowed to extend northwards.

UKMO

 

GEM

 

The GEM gets temperatures into the mid (or possibly high twenties) in the south from the middle of next week onwards.
 

While the 00Z Ops run isn’t as extreme there’s been a big shift in the ensembles, plenty of extreme members, in fact over half now being in 30C at some point and the mean is well up too. At the moment the low dropping down from the northwest during the middle of next week which looked the form horse now appears to be much less likely. 
 

[bluearmy]

23 hours ago, bluearmy said:

 

we see another low modelled to affect the U.K. day 8 and in contrast to what we saw with the upcoming weekends modelling at day 8, this looks much more likely to me. We still have some output which could again take it further north but I dont see much in the way of euro ridging to help this time. 

24 hours on and it seems that rather than euro heights coming to the rescue, the Azores ridges in to keep the low anomolys further north - again.  Assuming the models have a handle on this, it seems that we continue to repeat poor outlooks in the 8/10 day period becoming more than reasonable conditions for most once the models pick up the ‘correct solution’ around day 7.  

[Penrith Snow]

We better hope this mornings GFS is a rogue run cos it's a stinker, with very cool and unsettled conditions from the middle of next weekonwards even in the SE.

I am not convinced and the MetO certainly doesn't think such an outlook is likely.

In SE Spain at the moment and temperatures way above average with August like temperatures, much of the Med is the same.

Andy

[sheikhy]

Much better ecm this morning!!!next 10 days are dry for most of us bar the far north and west!!!most of england only gets 2 to 3mms of rain in the next 10 days!!

[mb018538]

ECM op run at day 9 & 10 teasing some eye candy this morning.

Seeing as though the GFS has the polar opposite at day 10, it's quite unhelpful.
That said - there are a significant number of hot plume ensemble members around that time on the 00z ensemble now showing, and the mean touches 10c for a few days in a row, so perhaps not as outlandish as we may think.




Nice to see the orange marker pens getting an outing!

Edited June 9, 2022 by mb018538

[mountain shadow]

12 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Much better ecm this morning!!!next 10 days are dry for most of us bar the far north and west!!!most of england only gets 2 to 3mms of rain in the next 10 days!!

It better not be taking the P!

For once, let's hope this is sign of the end to the Atlantic driven profile.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Penrith Snow said:

We better hope this mornings GFS is a rogue run cos it's a stinker, with very cool and unsettled conditions from the middle of next weekonwards even in the SE.

I am not convinced and the MetO certainly doesn't think such an outlook is likely.

In SE Spain at the moment and temperatures way above average with August like temperatures, much of the Med is the same.

Andy

Stinker? The Ops run has 30C for Thursday / Friday and then rapidly becomes a cold outlier against the ensemble pack during the weekend. 

[Frosty.]

I’m dreaming of a …HOT day 10! ….thanks ECM!  

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, jon snow said:

I’m dreaming of a …HOT day 10! ….thanks ECM!  

ECM ends amazingly, if it did day 11 & 12 charts they'd have temps widely into the 30's across most of E+W

[mb018538]

ECM is an outlier this morning as you'd expect - but much like the GFS, the mean is now up at 10c by day 9. So perhaps some sort of brief warmer spell is being sniffed out by the models...

[Captain Shortwave]

GFS 06z looks be producing something similar to the pub run…

 

ECM for the same time

 

That low is further north east, close to Portugal whilst the ECM has this close to the Azores. This will draw hot air northwards more readily.

[sheikhy]

Gfs 06z looking very nice indeed up to 168  hours so far!!!warm sunny and dry!!!!

[mushymanrob]

These charts would have to be very wrong for the ECM to be right.... and they might be, but it would be highly unusual if they were far out.
Average unsettled turning cool unsettled...

 

[mb018538]

Well the 6z also produces some very hot weather. We could be seeing this via the back door - the small cut off low over the Azores that drifts to the Portugal coast props up the building high. This could be appearing out of nowhere...34c on that Friday chart (very unlikely at this stage of course)

Edited June 9, 2022 by mb018538