Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond

[StormChaseUK]

Should always take anything further out than a few days with a pinch of salt. 

[TwisterGirl81]

21 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Show me? We had one day with 13.5hrs which was the 3rd June. Not had another day with more than 10hrs since 28th May. 
 

Can you let me know where you got the graph please as I'd like to see if there's one for where I am from in Devon

[swilliam]

1 hour ago, chapmanslade said:

Indeed. Some would make you think we WERE in October already. Plenty of 20C plus days in the last 2 weeks here, currently 21.6C with every suggestion that the ex TS Alex will scoot up towards Iceland on Friday leaving us to pull in the very warm air off the continent. OK it will be warmest in the south but that is ALWAYS the case in most summers. Mid 20's entirely possible, but from that source there will always be the risk of thundery downpours.

We are having an entirely average spell of UK summer weather, not dross, not scorching, just average.

Indeed just average so not too bad  the further S and E you are.

[AltonMatthew]

Well of to Great Yarmouth for a week from Saturday. Any model posters who can advise what to expect for the 7 days beginning Saturday? 

[Guest]

1 hour ago, TwisterGirl81 said:

Can you let me know where you got the graph please as I'd like to see if there's one for where I am from in Devon

Ranking weather

WWW.OGIMET.COM

Just edit the countries and the number of results you want returned. 
 

Believe you can search by station as well.

Edited June 7, 2022 by Alderc

[clark3r]

Latest gfs run shows quite a few warm days in the se 26 possible, with exceptional heat in France, won’t take too much tweaks to get some of the heat from France if it materialises

[Cambrian]

Just for the fun of a striking chart or three, here’s the 12z GFS operational run for day 14. What’s the opposite of a plume? I struggled to find an antonym, so I can only propose the syntactic reversal, I.e. “emulp”, or the phonetic reversal, i.e. “moolp”, which I think is my favourite.

  

Yes, it’s a summer solstice moolp. Well, at least it would be dry. D’oh!

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean hints at a window of opportunity  for the Azores high to build in which would be great news regarding the last third of June and these perturbations show the potential most of us would love to become reality!…anyway, fingers crossed…and all that jazz! ️ ?  

 

 

 

[Captain Shortwave]

ECM at day 5

 

Good agreement on low pressure setting up over the Azores. This is further west that modelled yesterday. As such the only real benefit is that the jet stream will shift a little further north. So winds remaining from the west but perhaps a period where more of the U.K. is dry.

Otherwise, there isn’t much to say, plenty of useable weather, especially in the south up to day 10. Temperatures look ok, if unspectacular (Pushing into the low twenties in the south, mid/high teens in the north). There is a chance that the pattern could adjust to draw warmer air from the south, but it would require more amplification of the long wave pattern or a favourable shift in that Azores low to bring this. The former looks unlikely with a broad west/south west pattern favoured, the latter? I wouldn’t throw away the ticket quite yet, though the odds are significantly worse today than 24 hours ago.

[Frosty.]

Just flicking between T+216 / 240 hours…to me, the ECMWF 12z operational indicates a window of opportunity for the Azores high to build / ridge in and gain a foothold between mid / late June! …anyone agree..or is it just me? ️  

Edited June 7, 2022 by jon snow

[Guest]

Once tomorrow's showers fizzle out, we have several days of settled weather, especially the further south you are with temperatures close to average, meaning it'll feel more than acceptable when the sun shines. Attaching the Brighton ensembles to cheer Alderc Grumbletrousers up  

[Alexis]

Looks like the idea of the low over Spain moving north over us has been dropped.

[Kentspur]

5 hours ago, clark3r said:

Latest gfs run shows quite a few warm days in the se 26 possible, with exceptional heat in France, won’t take too much tweaks to get some of the heat from France if it materialises

How's the SW looking? im vacating Kent for Devon for all of next week on hol

[Guest]

It’s all very meh, still no real indication of anything more settled, parts of the south and east could be pleasantly warm at times this weekend but that’s depending on cloud cover and decaying frontal activity fizzling out. GFS, UKMO & ICON all look poised to drop another low pressure down from the north west in about a weeks so possibly becoming quite unsettled once again. 

[mushymanrob]

19 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

But why are you so hung up on the 12z trends? are the 12z runs more accurate?..

Well im going on these and these alone, rightly or not, as most of the time they do spot more accurately than other suites the most likely emerging pattern in the 6-14 day timeframe . A couple of months ago i did a bit of research on how they had performed in the first few months of the year... and were 80-85% accurate, getting only 1 major change wrong.

These may be wrong this time, my forecast is based upon what i think they are predicting. As i see it, they are predicting a moderate/strong Southwesterly upper flow throughout the period June 12th - 20th. Theres troughing to our near West, ridging to our East, neither are particually strong  but the UK is slightly more under the troughs influence. That doesnt allow for much settled/ridge type conditions although transient ridges are likely. Id expect frontal systems, so unsettled or changeable.. mixed with brighter but showery conditions with the NW/SE split. Temperatures around average, so not bad, feeling muggy too. Id be surprised if these charts were far wrong, but it is possible.

 

And the latest 8-14 day chart has changed a little, by lifting the Western trough and bringing in a stronger Azores high.

So maybe not as unsettled? Looking average to me, but average for mid June isnt bad.

[bluearmy]

That 8/14 looks pretty poor to me with the upper trough centred on nw Europe and ridging too far to our east to hold it back - Anyway, day 12 is still some way into the distance 

we see another low modelled to affect the U.K. day 8 and in contrast to what we saw with the upcoming weekends modelling at day 8, this looks much more likely to me. We still have some output which could again take it further north but I dont see much in the way of euro ridging to help this time. 

[mb018538]

All looking very average and 'meh' indeed. 

 

Morning ECM really shows the rainfall starting to pile up in the NW. Scotland especially looking at risk of flooding. Temperatures average to below average, suppressed in unsettled conditions. Best of the conditions towards the SE.

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

All looking very average and 'meh' indeed. 

 

Morning ECM really shows the rainfall starting to pile up in the NW. Scotland especially looking at risk of flooding. Temperatures average to below average, suppressed in unsettled conditions. Best of the conditions towards the SE.

Maybe 2022 will be the summer of ‘meh’ 

 

[sheikhy]

Dead charts this morning man!!!!nothing special on the horizon!!just your average westerly flow and if anything maybe more dry than wet!!

[mb018538]

9 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Maybe 2022 will be the summer of ‘meh’ 

 

I could put up with a meh summer of 21 degrees, and a bit of rain. So long as there's plenty of sunny and dry days mixed in then it isn't too bad.

Still hopeful of better things to come as we leave June and head into July. Looking like June 2022 won't go down as the worst in history, but will be pretty forgettable on the whole. Nothing exciting to get the juices going before the solstice at the earliest, and by then the month is pretty much done with anyway.

[Frosty.]

Once again, the GEFS mean shows a window of opportunity for the Azores high to really build in strongly and bring an entirely better complexion to the second half of June…will it grasp this opportunity?.. if indeed, there even is an opportunity to grasp!? ️ 

[Penrith Snow]

The output is better than it was a few days ago and going forward conditions in the SE look decent enough.

However, here in the NW a continuous flow of air off the Atlantic will make for poor conditions evening pressure rises.

Our best spell of weather so far in 2022 was the fine spell in March, since the its been very average with very few warm, sunny days.

Andy

Just now, Penrith Snow said:

The output is better than it was a few days ago and going forward conditions in the SE look decent enough.

However, here in the NW a continuous flow of air off the Atlantic will make for poor conditions even if pressure rises.

Our best spell of weather so far in 2022 was the fine spell in March, since the its been very average with very few warm, sunny days.

Andy

 

[Cambrian]

More edgy stuff for the coldies, coolies, mildies and hotties (a word of warning, I got quite a shock when I googled that last one). These are based, I believe, on the latest GFS run, so today’s 0z run shown here, and indicate another two-week spell of uncannily average conditions. Not popularly posted these kinds of chart, probably because they’re more of a readout of the models than the dynamics themselves and by week 2 a rather wild extrapolation, but I quite like them for the general “feel” that they give. 

The temperatures for the first week look like they’ve been taking lessons in averageness. The anomaly chart for the first week (at the bottom) can hardly manage a hue over the UK and Ireland, though it’s striking how above average it is for Iberia and indeed is slightly above for most of the continent.

Actually slightly drier than average in the southern half of the UK in week 1, more normal in the north, looking to possibly be a bit wetter overall in week 2, but never far from average. 

A look at the 0z GFS ensemble confirms only narrow deviation of the op and ensemble mean from the long term average T850 in red, maybe something above average for a couple of days around day 9 (Birmingham).

 

I’m actually alright with it, not so much the concept of it being average - I love the seasons to hold a real taste of what they traditionally hold, and nearly everyone wants to feel some warm sunshine in the summer and have spells of reliably dry weather - get up early, feel the growing warmth of the morning and know you can do something good with the long day. 

Plenty of time, this will come for sure, but I wouldn’t want it too hot and dry too soon as it can really stall the developing fruit, better to have some heat later on for filling out and ripening. So it’s all good in the hood for now. Some proper warmth at the end of June into next month would be grand. 

[SunSean]

32 minutes ago, jon snow said:

Once again, the GEFS mean shows a window of opportunity for the Azores high to really build in strongly and bring an entirely better complexion to the second half of June…will it grasp this opportunity?.. if indeed, there even is an opportunity to grasp!? ️ 

Since it has failed to grasp any high pressure systems the last 4000 times, we will probably get a lovely little low trough smashing into us instead, but there's always hope haha.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

We are looking OK on the 6z suite...Azores trying to flex a little bit harder..Low pressure still trying to influence conditions towards the NW though...but further South is looking OK for the Weekend into next week.

On a side not the elderly gent across the road from me does nothing but moan about our weather conditions back home..its to cloudy...its to wet...its not very warm...all year round...I said the other day...for crying out loud Barry you have a villa in Benidorm why don't you get over there! Just checked in...and he's gone!! Had to laugh though

Whatever your weather enjoy...something better for many this Weekend though..