Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond

[northwestsnow]

EC 00z is poor- 

Not a chart I want to see mid June.

[The Tall Weatherman]

The GFS is pumping low pressure systems constantly which is good for occasional hot southerly winds !

[mb018538]

43 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC 00z is poor- 

Not a chart I want to see mid June.

Tropical system firing up the jet and Nina background response. Hopeful the last 10 days will see an improvement! One thing that has been notable for me in the complete lack of the Azores high again. Either not there or retracted miles back in the Atlantic.

[mountain shadow]

1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

Tropical system firing up the jet and Nina background response. Hopeful the last 10 days will see an improvement! One thing that has been notable for me in the complete lack of the Azores high again. Either not there or retracted miles back in the Atlantic.

Another set up dreadful runs with next weekend looking a washout particularly the further North and West. 

June 13th looks like a continuance of not achieving 30C, be lucky to get 20C!

[sheikhy]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

EC 00z is poor- 

Not a chart I want to see mid June.

Defo gone backward over the last 48 hours!gone is the warmth and we are now replaced with rain and average/cool temperatures!

[ANYWEATHER]

7 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Defo gone backward over the last 48 hours!gone is the warmth and we are now replaced with rain and average/cool temperatures!

Yes models in agreement of the trough sitting out in the Atlantic to gain more control as we move into next week, certainly looks the trend...

[The Tall Weatherman]

Cheer up everyone! Think about the positives and how hard it is to predict a long range model and as we all know things change rapidly. There are always the nice runs including these midnight runs.

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Yes models in agreement of the trough sitting out in the Atlantic to gain more control as we move into next week, certainly looks the trend...

Better out in the Atlantic than stuck over the North Sea?

[Cambrian]

The ECM operational run is at it again at 0z for development of secondary lows too. 

A mere loop in the 1010 mb isobar about 1000 miles to the south of the centre of the main low in the early hours of next Thursday (144h) catches some of the energy in that little curl of jet stream, 

  

forms a secondary low that deepens 10 mb on its approach and with very humid air in the feed up the west coast of France,
 

drops 15-25mm of rain widely on the UK and Ireland next Thursday evening and into Friday. 

  
Putting understandable preferences for June weather to one side for a moment, this is an interesting day 6 / 7 possibility to keep an eye on.

[kold weather]

ECM is absolutely shocking, however it is certainly the worst of the bunch. 

Still the models will need to be taken with considerable pinch of salt as how they handle soon to be TS Alex will vary from run to run and the exact positioning of it will do much to determine how things set-up afterwards.

With that being said, the models do remind me of a classic La Nina type pattern, especially one that is stronger than you'd normally expect at this time of year. Probably near average temperatures but probably pretty wet.

[Snowy L]

49 minutes ago, The Tall Weatherman said:

Cheer up everyone! Think about the positives and how hard it is to predict a long range model and as we all know things change rapidly. There are always the nice runs including these midnight runs.

In the last couple of months there have been 0 short range corrections to high pressure over the UK, while there have been countless short range corrections removing a predicted high pressure. The models keep missing something until it comes into a short timeframe and it seems the out of this world met office models have the same problem too, seeing as they have made the met office look very amateur this weekend. Things can change, but I think it's important to notice these patterns and unfortunately we are stuck in a nasty one at the moment.

[mushymanrob]

Theres some strange comments on here, some seem to be delighting in a cool outlook whilst others are bemoaning the lack of heat.

These charts are consistent, and have a high confidence rating..

Its all looking very average to me! This is the UK after all... A mean moderate Southwesterly upper flow courtesy of low pressure to our near West and high over the Continent. Id expect a bright sky (cloud will be an issue) muggy but warm feel to the air. There will be spells of rain, and of course some might be heavy, but there will be brighter/sunnier spells too. And theres the old NW/SE split ..

In all... id suggest its all pretty average, which isnt bad . With high to our East, chances of a plume are there... who knows, the high may even develop.

As for the Azores high.... thats only ever of any use when it displaces or ridges Eastward. If it sits there over the Azores as it does most of the time - it feeds us Westerlies or Northwesterlies ... Nah, id prefer troughing to our West, more chance of heat and thunderstorms.

[sheikhy]

Sundays rain is not moving as far north now on the last 2 gfs runs!outliers or has it picked up a genuine southern movement?!!

[ANYWEATHER]

12 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Sundays rain is not moving as far north now on the last 2 gfs runs!outliers or has it picked up a genuine southern movement?!!

In such a situation like this gfs or even any other computer model precipitation forecasts are never truly accurate. Best device is the rainfall radar in the next few days

[kold weather]

Just peering through the latest UKV and it still looks rough for Sunday, particularly for the Midlands. Basically anyone stuck under that rain band temperatures basically stick between 10-13c, which for the time of year isn't great, indeed wouldn't be out of place in March as maxes.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Is it just me or are others noticing that when the output flips too encouraging theres less being said about it,but as soon as it flips poor some are quick to state how bad things are looking!

The models are struggling big time and show know signs of consistency whatsoever! Even the forecast for Sunday is shrouded in mystery....its not certain by a long stretch how far North the rain may edge North!

At this stage towards the South of the Midlands is a good call...very warm sunny spells here today people walking around with know tops on....mind you us Black Country folks are as tuff as geordies

Saturday looks a repeat with sunny spells and showers.. again warm in the sun....Sunday could be wet towards the South,but this as scope for adjustment...

Beyond that perhaps more of a NW/SE split to our weather....so the South could end up decent....not a write off by any means.

Whatever the weather have a great jubilee folks...things will improve with time.

 

 

 

 

[Methuselah]

5 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Is it just me or are others noticing that when the output flips too encouraging theres less being said about it,but as soon as it flips poor some are quick to state how bad things are looking!

The models are struggling big time and show know signs of consistency whatsoever! Even the forecast for Sunday is shrouded in mystery....its not certain by a long stretch how far North the rain may edge North!

At this stage towards the South of the Midlands is a good call...very warm sunny spells here today people walking around with know tops on....mind you us Black Country folks are as tuff as geordies

Saturday looks a repeat with sunny spells and showers.. again warm in the sun....Sunday could be wet towards the South,but this as scope for adjustment...

Beyond that perhaps more of a NW/SE split to our weather....so the South could end up decent....not a write off by any means.

Whatever the weather have a great jubilee folks...things will improve with time.

Afternoon, Matt! I call it the Annual Race to be The One Who's Gonna be Right to Write Off Summer. It happens every year at this time!

Personally, and FWIW, I'm looking forward to next week: long-track southwesterlies with a chance of the odd plume cannae be that bad?

Edited June 3, 2022 by Ed Stone

[Penrith Snow]

After 3 months of predominantly dry, anticyclonic weather a change to a more normal westerly flow must be anticipated.

The question now is how wet, how cool and for how long?

The absence of the Azores High ridgeing northwards on this mornings ECM is notable, but rest assured if the AH is absent for the next 5 months it is sure to reappear strongly in November!

Andy

[Summer8906]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

Afternoon, Matt! I call it the Annual Race to be The One Who's Gonna be Right to Write Off Summer. It happens every year at this time!

Personally, and FWIW, I'm looking forward to next week: long-track southwesterlies with a chance of the odd plume cannae be that bad?

Depends where you are really, down here (Hampshire) southwesterlies produce poor weather much of the time, in summer generally it's cool and clammy by day, by contrast warm and stuffy by night, and the air feels constantly damp, with rain slow to evaporate after it's passed through. Very cloudy and dull too - if we get locked into southwesterlies I suspect we'll end up with yet another summer month with well-below-average sunshine totals.

I'd much prefer a northwesterly outlook in all honesty.

That said the GFS looks pretty slack and ill-defined at times, suggesting low confidence in the outlook, almost an "anything could happen" scenario?

Edited June 3, 2022 by Summer8906

[SqueakheartLW]

It would seem the models keep toying with the idea of low pressure just out to our west giving the chance of brief bursts of heat from the south at times. Here are several examples from the most recent output.

GFS 12z

There isn't a whole lot to pick from on the GFS and GFS is less keen for a warmer or hot outlook.

P22

P25

Both of these options give a brief burst of heat, particularly further east and south and could potentially bring thundery activity in off the continent. Also storms could be triggered as the fresher air pushes in from the west into this heat.

GEM 00z

The GEM has been more bullish for a warmer or hotter outlook compared with the GFS and there's more of a selection of charts to choose from here

Control

P19

P14

P07

P10

P13

    As with the GFS but only a bigger selection but the theme is generally the same. Low pressure out to the west and a burst of heat ahead of it. Some are more widespread heat whilst others are more of a glancing blow but all have a thunderstorm risk and chances of 30C + maxes in the mix for some.

GFS Extended

Now for some real heat chances with some fun from the GFS Extended run today. 2 members caught my eye in particular.

GFS Extended P09     +444 hours (Thu 21st June 2022)

This member very much has us under the grip of heat and with the +15C isotherm very much covering most of the UK and the +20C isotherm very much over the whole of England then with this wind direction the east of England could see some very high temperatures from this setup if sunshine is widespread.

However with pressure quite low here then a lot of home grown thunderstorms could be sparked off here and if any cold front moves into this heat then that could trigger even more storms too.

GFS Extended P21     +666 hours (Wed 29th June 2022)

I have saved the best one till last and when you see the 850hpa chart you'll soon see why

This has most of England and Wales under the grip of some quite extreme heat for late June with like the previous option the +20C isotherm very much over all of England and this time Wales as well. The big one for me here is the +25C isotherm which is into the south of England too and some serious heat is just over the channel too.

Note that thundery low on the 500mb chart forming in that heat as well as the wind direction ahead of this. Could be the perfect recipe for a June record to fall, a date record or if things fell right an all time record.

[Don]

1 hour ago, SqueakheartLW said:

 

This has most of England and Wales under the grip of some quite extreme heat for late June with like the previous option the +20C isotherm very much over all of England and this time Wales as well. The big one for me here is the +25C isotherm which is into the south of England too and some serious heat is just over the channel too.

Note that thundery low on the 500mb chart forming in that heat as well as the wind direction ahead of this. Could be the perfect recipe for a June record to fall, a date record or if things fell right an all time record.

That looks like a June 2019 repeat, virtually on the same day!  I wouldn't describe those charts as being the best but that's me and each to their own!

[summer blizzard]

Euro tonight sticks with its prior runs and largely maintains a cyclonic pattern through the run.

[NEVES SCREAMER]

44 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Euro tonight sticks with its prior runs and largely maintains a cyclonic pattern through the run.

Might as well keep the shorts in the wardrobe.

[Weather-history]

 

Grotesque for mid June 

[mountain shadow]

As Summer begins, we plunge straight into Autumn with relatively deep lows on our doorstop.

Enjoy today as next week and thereafter look awful.