Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond

[Tom Jarvis]

Ahhhhhhh these model changes are not doing my health any good. My sister has her wedding this weekend from Friday to Sunday. From saying it looks nice to now a washout. How do I tell her it now looks v wet!!!!

[terrier]

Wow what a horrible morning looking at the charts. So we have gone from a settled jubilee weekend to possibly washout conditions for many. Looks like Thursday will be the best day of the long weekend. Then unfortunately it’s all down hill from there. Was looking forward to a few days at the coast now I’m not so sure. Don’t you just love the U.K. weather

[Roadrunner]

9 minutes ago, Tom Jarvis said:

Ahhhhhhh these model changes are not doing my health any good. My sister has her wedding this weekend from Friday to Sunday. From saying it looks nice to now a washout. How do I tell her it now looks v wet!!!!

What I've found is nothing is ever as bad as predicted by the models this far out. Sweeping statement I know but that's just from personal experience. For example, in my location last night said I'd be getting rain most of the day - it's dry here and while not brilliant sunshine it's definitely not disgusting! Also shows on Met Office app that the threat of heavy rain for this afternoon has subsided somewhat - yes, I know, apps are useless but I find give a good idea what to expect, plus the Met one is the best out there I find. 

We're always told on here by people more knowledgeable than I that small changes have big impacts down the line - not sure what needs to happen to keep those lows at the weekend at bay but there is plenty of time for things to change for the better. I hope you get good weather for the wedding, keeping everything crossed for you. 

[Scorcher]

24 minutes ago, Roadrunner said:

What I've found is nothing is ever as bad as predicted by the models this far out. Sweeping statement I know but that's just from personal experience. For example, in my location last night said I'd be getting rain most of the day - it's dry here and while not brilliant sunshine it's definitely not disgusting! Also shows on Met Office app that the threat of heavy rain for this afternoon has subsided somewhat - yes, I know, apps are useless but I find give a good idea what to expect, plus the Met one is the best out there I find. 

We're always told on here by people more knowledgeable than I that small changes have big impacts down the line - not sure what needs to happen to keep those lows at the weekend at bay but there is plenty of time for things to change for the better. I hope you get good weather for the wedding, keeping everything crossed for you. 

It's also a very shallow trough which the models have real trouble with. I wouldn't be surprised if we end up with very little rain whatsoever What you say is right about the precipitation charts we have access to- they nearly always overdo the extent and intensity of the rain in this sort of setup.

[kold weather]

10 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

It's also a very shallow trough which the models have real trouble with. I wouldn't be surprised if we end up with very little rain whatsoever What you say is right about the precipitation charts we have access to- they nearly always overdo the extent and intensity of the rain in this sort of setup.

I think its kinda a little bit irrelevant how shallow the trough feature is, its going to be enough to spark some degree of instability and some convection for the north Thursday and maybe into Friday. Not saying its going to be terrible, some areas may get away with it but equally showers do look increasingly likely at this stage.

On the otherhand there is still time for the picture in the south to drastically improve. We've seen it so many times that those lows that swing up from France end up getting modelled further and further south and its quite possible that happens again. It DOES look really quite cold for the time of year though should we end up getting frontal rain in the south, it will feel basically late winter like should that happen.

If it ends up like the models suggest then yes, the Met/Beeb have somewhat messed up their jubilee forecast, particularly further south you are. With that being said I still bet on 2, maybe for some 3 days of decent weather wherever you are and I don't think you could even remotely call it a washout period for anyone, even if the worst case scenario from the 00z suite does come off.

[johnholmes]

Well I posted this yesterday, feeling reasonably confident about it! 24 hours later much less so

Looking at later outputs both anomaly and synoptic charts and the showery regime, rather cool of this week still looks to be replaced by more settled weather towards the weekend, not dry everywhere but less rainfall than the next 2-3 days. Temperatures also rising 2-3 C. Later in the BH w/e then possibly a touch lower again near N Sea coasts

Synoptic and anomaly outputs are not sufficiently consistent to be very sure of just what the weather may do from Thursday/Friday onwards.

fence sitting time I'm afraid.

 

[Roadrunner]

5 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Well I posted this yesterday, feeling reasonably confident about it! 24 hours later much less so

Looking at later outputs both anomaly and synoptic charts and the showery regime, rather cool of this week still looks to be replaced by more settled weather towards the weekend, not dry everywhere but less rainfall than the next 2-3 days. Temperatures also rising 2-3 C. Later in the BH w/e then possibly a touch lower again near N Sea coasts

Synoptic and anomaly outputs are not sufficiently consistent to be very sure of just what the weather may do from Thursday/Friday onwards.

fence sitting time I'm afraid.

 

John is it fair to say that there will be some head scratching in Exeter this morning or do you think they'll be sticking to their guns. They seemed very bullish about a decent weekend overall and knowing the importance of the forecast for people they'd want to make sure all the i's are dotted etc. 

They obviously have access to more than us so hoping their earlier forecasts will be on the money still. 

Kold, you are right. I've seen these lows dissappear into France many times - let's hope this happens again! 

[johnholmes]

19 minutes ago, Roadrunner said:

John is it fair to say that there will be some head scratching in Exeter this morning or do you think they'll be sticking to their guns. They seemed very bullish about a decent weekend overall and knowing the importance of the forecast for people they'd want to make sure all the i's are dotted etc. 

They obviously have access to more than us so hoping their earlier forecasts will be on the money still. 

Kold, you are right. I've seen these lows dissappear into France many times - let's hope this happens again! 

Yes, I would imagine a fair amount of measured discussion on the different model outputs, really ECMWF and their own various model outputs. I doubt that GFS will be in the forefront of their deliberations.

[mb018538]

1 hour ago, kold weather said:

I think its kinda a little bit irrelevant how shallow the trough feature is, its going to be enough to spark some degree of instability and some convection for the north Thursday and maybe into Friday. Not saying its going to be terrible, some areas may get away with it but equally showers do look increasingly likely at this stage.

On the otherhand there is still time for the picture in the south to drastically improve. We've seen it so many times that those lows that swing up from France end up getting modelled further and further south and its quite possible that happens again. It DOES look really quite cold for the time of year though should we end up getting frontal rain in the south, it will feel basically late winter like should that happen.

If it ends up like the models suggest then yes, the Met/Beeb have somewhat messed up their jubilee forecast, particularly further south you are. With that being said I still bet on 2, maybe for some 3 days of decent weather wherever you are and I don't think you could even remotely call it a washout period for anyone, even if the worst case scenario from the 00z suite does come off.

Yep it doesn’t matter really. If it slows down or gets stuck somewhere you’ll see a fair amount of rain. Lincolnshire suffered bad flooding in June 2019 from this set up. Wainfleet saw 75mm of rain in 2 days on the 10/11th when a trough got stuck in one place.

Not saying we’re going to see that happen again, but it just illustrates that an innocuous looking feature can dump a lot of rain down!

[mb018538]

Forecast confidence likely to be lower in the next week anyway - Ex-Agatha from the Pacific is likely to re-emerge in the Atlantic and strengthen down the eastern seaboard. Very early in the season!

[Shane]

15 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Yep it doesn’t matter really. If it slows down or gets stuck somewhere you’ll see a fair amount of rain. Lincolnshire suffered bad flooding in June 2019 from this set up. Wainfleet saw 75mm of rain in 2 days on the 10/11th when a trough got stuck in one place.

Not saying we’re going to see that happen again, but it just illustrates that an innocuous looking feature can dump a lot of rain down!

I was in Skegness that week and it was horrific !, We were on Butlins with the kids and the ground outside our apartment flooded so much there were ducks on it lol!! I really hope that this year is not the same!

[Guest]

Anyone got the latest model verification stats?

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I'm now noticing the met updated app for my area currently shows long sunny spells for the Weekend! All is not lost...This weekend perhaps far from being nailed down.

A quick look at the mean does hint at a better Weekend regarding pressure but perhaps a decline as we move into next week....but again some spread to be had. 

Looks like at could be a case of crossing everything for the big weekend....but hopefully most of you will be able to witness some at times better conditions..but overall I'm not seeing any cast iron agreements on where we may be heading.

[Guest]

Another awful run from the GFS 06Z for the weekend, bordering on as cold as it gets in early summer in some parts.

[Badgers01]

GFS certainly playing the role of the pantomime villain again - interesting that Mr Holmes thinks it wouldn’t be at the forefront of considerings for the pro’s - so maybe some hope then !!

[Roadrunner]

10 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

GFS certainly playing the role of the pantomime villain again - interesting that Mr Holmes thinks it wouldn’t be at the forefront of considerings for the pro’s - so maybe some hope then !!

That was my thinking too. Akin to what Matt said above, the Met app has changed for the better for my location as well. Baby steps. 

I'm ignoring the GFS for now as it doesn't show me what I want it to

[Mike Poole]

54 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Anyone got the latest model verification stats?

The site I used to use has been closed unfortunately.  We now only seem to get the chart for T120 unless anyone knows another source.  Here it is, but I’d like to see T144 and later too given the way the models have been behaving:

Looks like it has been worse than average last week or two, though.

[Guest]

lol dont think anyone will be fooling for this anytime soon....

[MP-R]

3 minutes ago, Alderc said:

lol dont think anyone will be fooling for this anytime soon....

Well that certainly would sort out the June 13th enigma if it transpired . We were only one day out in 2006. 

Fat chance methinks.

[Frosty.]

I adore plumes, can’t get enough of them! …I noticed the Gfs 0z op also toyed with this idea and the 6z has taken it a step further…hopefully it’s a trend! ️ ⛈….ps…great to see Matt posting again!  

Edited May 31, 2022 by jon snow

[Don]

1 hour ago, MP-R said:

Well that certainly would sort out the June 13th enigma if it transpired . We were only one day out in 2006. 

Fat chance methinks.

GFS teasing heat lovers in FI again?!  It's as bad as it is in winter when teasing the coldies lol!

Edited May 31, 2022 by Don

[StormChaseUK]

Same old story with the GFS lol  - The Met Office/Weather APP difference compared to GFS for this weekend is bizarre.
Met Office 23c some places Saturday,  GFS has 8c  - v confusing.

[Don]

47 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

Same old story with the GFS lol  - The Met Office/Weather APP difference compared to GFS for this weekend is bizarre.
Met Office 23c some places Saturday,  GFS has 8c  - v confusing.

One of the models are going to have on on their face.....

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, Don said:

One of the models are going to have on on their face.....

Even the Netweather forecast just issued is confusing IMO . Yes uncertainty mentioned and yes the hit and miss nature of showers mentioned but accumulated precip charts showing 100+mm of rain over the central south is not hit & miss showers......

[richie3846]

I actually feel sorry for the poor sods who make a living out of forecasting. With a big weekend coming up, I suspect the folk preparing the forecasts for the met and the Beeb etc must be very nervous about the crazy shenanigans taking place in the models right now. 

 

Even with all this craziness, I see the met haven't made any major changes to the forecast in this area, YET.