Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond

[sheikhy]

Gfs 06z is actually a shocker!!gimme ecm all day long!the gfs is woeful man all over the place as usual!less i say about the model the better!ecm is the one!!!

[StormChaseUK]

All that hot air over europe has to descend somewhere unfortunately it does look like the UK will be the low pressure breeding ground for June.

I think this happened before in 2017, or 2018 during June the Shropshire hills were 6c and Paris was 36c 

[mushymanrob]

52 minutes ago, chapmanslade said:

Exactly. You only have to look at the day 10 ECM (hot air over southern UK) and day 10 GFS (hot air stuck over Spain) at the moment to see how small changes make big differences to the weather we get. If the heat is 100 miles south of the UK it takes very little to get to us compared to coming from Spain. I always assume about 500 miles per day for airmass movement, so if the heat is over Spain it takes about 3 days to reach the UK with a southerly, if it is over France it takes a day. Getting a south wind for 3 days is a lot harder than for 1 day.

 

A dry airmass with lots of cloud ???

i wouldnt agree with those distances or timings... we can get a plume here within a day, of course it depends on the wind speed, but your 500 miles per day is only 20 mph...

but this is off topic

 

[mountain shadow]

40 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Gfs 06z is actually a shocker!!gimme ecm all day long!the gfs is woeful man all over the place as usual!less i say about the model the better!ecm is the one!!!

I think that's the worst early Summer run i have ever seen. Truly horrendendous and therefore unlikely

[Frosty.]

I’ve been called many things… …realistic isn’t one of them ….but looking at the GEFS 6z, I choose to believe there is hope for June in terms of sunshine, heat and storms! ️ ⛈  

 

 

[Blessed Weather]

Can we stick to Model Output discussion in here please folks. I've moved several posts discussing heat in Europe and past summers, etc, over to the Spring 2022 Chat thread. Thanks.

 

[Guest]

12Z's off to a bad start, ICON has the trough anchored over the UK all next week. Hopefully not a sign of things to come especially following that awful 06Z GFS run. 

 

 

[StormChaseUK]

All is not lost , next weekend could show promise again.   The area of low pressure that gets stuck next week slowly appears to erode when HP comes in from SW.

Northerly about to get Terminated.

Edited May 26, 2022 by StormChaseUK

[Guest]

8 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

All is not lost , next weekend could show promise again.   The area of low pressure that gets stuck next week slowly appears to erode when HP comes in from SW.

Northerly about to get Terminated.

I thought that but the surface conditions, while warmer are damp and cloudy especially further south. Really need that low to end up a couple hundred miles further west. 

 

 

Edited May 26, 2022 by Alderc

[kieranweatherfan]

I thought the GFS run wasn’t actually too bad for temps, better than previous runs, around average for most, just no sign of any heatwaves yet 

[Guest]

Spot the odd one out.....UKMO a massive outlier compared to GEM, ICON & GFS. 

I suspect surface conditions will be extremely slow to improve through next week. Sunday to Thursday looking pretty rotten. 

 

Edited May 26, 2022 by Alderc

[mb018538]

Well the ECM is also truly vile for the jubilee 

I’m hoping this is just a bad dream. For summer those are about 2 of the worst charts you could ever see. Low pressure pinned over the UK with nowhere to go.

[sheikhy]

8 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Well the ECM is also truly vile for the jubilee 

I’m hoping this is just a bad dream. For summer those are about 2 of the worst charts you could ever see. Low pressure pinned over the UK with nowhere to go.

That is bad man!!could be some torrential downpours amongst that green snot!!

[Captain Shortwave]

Well we have the low stalling enough to build a ridge over Europe. The question is whether this can build enough to actually bring better conditions to the UK. The ECM is a no to this tonight.

 

At day 6 though, this could change (I doubt it could much worse than this).

 

I guess this could be good for the convective discussion thread given a lot of warm air on the eastern flank and cold air aloft afterwards that could bring slow moving downpours.

Edited May 26, 2022 by Captain Shortwave

[mountain shadow]

11 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Well the ECM is also truly vile for the jubilee 

I’m hoping this is just a bad dream. For summer those are about 2 of the worst charts you could ever see. Low pressure pinned over the UK with nowhere to go.

Bloody heck. And I thought today's 6z GFS was the worst early Summer run I had ever seen. 

Horror show for the jubilee.

[Guest]

9 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Well the ECM is also truly vile for the jubilee 

I’m hoping this is just a bad dream. For summer those are about 2 of the worst charts you could ever see. Low pressure pinned over the UK with nowhere to go.

We’re staring down the barrel of an awful awful start to summer. Whatever he models come up with it’s awful whether it was looking like a cold northeasterly like 24-48hrs ago or a damp, wet, overcast southwesterly. Seems to be very little time to avoid the Jubilee weather curse. 

[Roadrunner]

Wow the output at the moment is truly astonishingly bad for the jubilee. It is unbelievable how unlucky we'd be to get this again almost 10 years to the day. Still a week to go but if things don't improve in the output during the next few days there will be a few street parties being cancelled. Such a shame. I need a straw to clutch. 

[slater]

Absolutely unbelievable charts, as others have said, 10 years ago we had a street party and we had to cancel due to cold wind and rain, then the whole summer turned out the same, when this kind of set up sets in, will be a bugger to shift…are  we heading for a 2012 summer wash out ???

[jamesthemonkeh]

Clutching at straws but the precipitation charts are only showery rather than washout.  Of course, only indicative of what could be...so it could be far worse...or better.

My working assumption is that we'll all see some showers at some point, but hopefully some warmish sunshine in between.

Yet I remain nervous...memories of 2012 are strong.

[Roadrunner]

Can someone with more knowledge than me (probably most on here) explain if there is a chance this low could be kept more out west? Anyone familiar with these set ups and have knowledge if the models struggle with them or over egg eastward movement? 

[summer blizzard]

We don't have to go back far for a poor start to summer (2019) but tonight's Euro is a cracker for those who don't much want summer to arrive. Cool, cyclonic and ends on a northerly.

 

[damianslaw]

3 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Well the ECM is also truly vile for the jubilee 

I’m hoping this is just a bad dream. For summer those are about 2 of the worst charts you could ever see. Low pressure pinned over the UK with nowhere to go.

2007 summer charts ..

[Snowy L]

Massive shock we have a UK high at day 10 on the 18z. 175th time lucky?

[summer blizzard]

The difference in modelling appears to be heights near Greenland once the low moves over the UK from the south. The GFS has a more developed low and so the high is pushed south east towards the UK, the Euro has a weaker low out west and so heights rebuild over Greenland and the pattern more or less repeats.

[sheikhy]

That is one hideous ecm 00z!!very wet!!!make the most of the next 3 or 4 days of dry weather if that ecm is correct!!