Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond

[mb018538]

Looks like our fortunes will hinge on what happens to the low pressure over the UK midweek onwards.


ECM starts to force the low back south towards Iberia, which allows pressure to start to build around the top:




GEM follows a similar trajectory, but allows the high to build more effectively over the UK:



GFS goes for a different outcome...with the low heights ejected out to the NE instead:



A dogs dinner as usual. One to resolve over the coming days.

[Frosty.]

I’m liking the longer term 0z ECM and even longer term Gfs!…after a slow start, June could really click into gear soon after!! ️ ? 

 

[Singularity]

We might finally be seeing a more coherent shift toward the phase 8 MJO response in the modelling, setting in during next weekend.

It supports high pressure extension across the northwest of Europe. Tricky part is how that interplays with the low that looks to be there beforehand. Does it boot that low out of the way or build across to its north?

In the midst of this, southern UK could find itself on the cool/hot boundary Thu-Fri with a lot of rain around. Or there might be narrow escape. Both options are on the table. Tense for the Jubilee!

[ANYWEATHER]

Without putting too finer point on it next week's charts are really awful. Cold and wet Depressing,  yes, it will get better ,but how can it not. Perhaps some Thunderstorms to look forward to before next week's Jubilee weekend It will be Summer by then , but not as we know it and would like it   PS not posting any charts, it will be like rubbing salt into A Summer lovers wound...

[mb018538]

24 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Without putting too finer point on it next week's charts are really awful. Cold and wet Depressing,  yes, it will get better ,but how can it not. Perhaps some Thunderstorms to look forward to before next week's Jubilee weekend It will be Summer by then , but not as we know it and would like it   PS not posting any charts, it will be like rubbing salt into A Summer lovers wound...

Next week certainly looks rubbish. From Sunday onwards it could be the worst spell of weather in quite a while. Certainly looks to be a small window of opportunity the following weekend to get out of the mire though. Models will have a hard time pinning this down, but it's the next area of interest.

[Roadrunner]

Let's hope thw low is booted out of the way sooner rarher than later. Surely her majesty has a say in this sort of thing! 

[johnholmes]

Ill try again!

Friday 27 May and an update using the 500 mb anomaly charts

Been away a few days so not been able to follow these charts but the noaa pattern has shown similar for 6-10 days for the past couple of days. I would expect this to be the upper air pattern. Also the surface high is likely to be west or nw of the UK in my view. The 8-14 is still along similar limes as well so perhaps2 weeks of this upper air pattern and the consequent low level weather.

Ec

Not sure about the upper low just off nw Iberia, it may be correct but a cool outlook for sure even on this

Noaa

Showing the upper air n of west flow into the uk for the 6-10 day period from today, similar yesterday also,; it does have a fairly marked trough over the uk down towards Iberia so looking a bit closer the two models are not that far apart.

Both show a coolish 6-10 day outlook and probably not dry for everywhere.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Climate Prediction Center - 8-14 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

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[Guest]

14 minutes ago, Roadrunner said:

Let's hope thw low is booted out of the way sooner rarher than later. Surely her majesty has a say in this sort of thing! 

Not based on the previous Jubilee weekends she doesnt….

[Frosty.]

Looking at the mid / longer term GEFS 0z mean, although less troughy than the week ahead with hints of ridging from the Azores sector… !..to me it still suggests changeable towards mid June and there are some clusters of particularly unsettled members but I did find one peach! …as they say, hope springs eternal.. with a cherry . on top?! ️
 

Edited May 27, 2022 by jon snow

[northwestsnow]

Well, its 6z and its day 10 but that run would be setting the UK up for a nice start to June.

Lots of options but it would be nice to see something a bit warmer ,locally at least its been often dry but a bit nippy !!

[Dangerous55019]

Hello everyone... Time for a quick look at the month ahead with the CFS v2...

Week 1 - 27th May to the 2nd June: High pressure over to our west, and low pressure over to our east, suggests to me a bit of a northerly/north easterly air flow. Probably feeling a little chilly in the shade, and quite possibly showery as well, but certainly not a washout either, and it'll probably feel quite pleasant in the direct sunshine.

Week 2 - 3rd to the 9th June: It looks like a Scandinavian high is coming to take control of our weather! With winds from a more easterly direction, it probably it won't feel too humid either. Possibly a spell of summery weather. 

Week 3 - 10th to the 16th June: All change! The Scandinavian high retreats eastwards back towards main land Europe, and with low pressure starting to lurk out to the west of Ireland, this could well fetch up some warm/hot southerly winds, which could give us some thundery weather! Dare I say it, a Spanish Plume scenario? ... Time will tell.

Week 4 - 17th to the 24th June: It looks like there could be a link up between the Azores High, and the Scandinavian high(!) over most of England and Wales! Scotland and Ireland could possibly be a tad more unsettled.

Will it pan out like this? Only time will tell, as this is the CFS after all. 

[MP-R]

GFS 06Z showing something much more typical of June following next week's chilly northerly spell with high pressure moving in from the west by the weekend and hanging around for a long time beyond that. As said above, all will depend on the tracking of flabby lows next week.

[richie3846]

I see the met office are plumping for a quick return to average temperatures midweek. Seeing as they use multiple models, they are either guessing or are more sure than us that it certainly is far from a disaster! 3 cool days is nothing to be concerned about, make the most of today and Saturday, then hopefully by next Thursday we'll be back to average at least. I'm personally waiting for an update from the met office, after their recent 10 day outlook, they were absolutely clear that they didn't have a scooby doo beyond about Monday, so one would expect some sort of better idea this weekend, and certainly by Sunday, when they publish the week ahead forecast. 

Meanwhile I'll continue to ignore the outputs, and the interpretations of these, until the end of the weekend at least, because there are some people here who, understandably, allow personal bias to influence posts, mainly when it comes to day 10/snow/hot/cold. That leaves the uneducated type (me!) very unclear and unable to seperate information from opinion! 

The current output from the met office does not seem to reflect some of the doom I've read in this thread the last couple days!

[Frosty.]

I must admit the ECMWF 0z ensemble mean slipped under my radar but I’m glad I’ve finally noticed it!…really quite an improvement longer term thanks to the Azores ridge / high! ️  

[StormChaseUK]

Something for everyone 

[Guest]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Well, its 6z and its day 10 but that run would be setting the UK up for a nice start to June.

Lots of options but it would be nice to see something a bit warmer ,locally at least its been often dry but a bit nippy !!

Pretty sure we’ve fallen into this 10day trap, 3 times now in the last 3 weeks. Needs to get a lot close than that to be taken seriously. 

[StormChaseUK]

15 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Pretty sure we’ve fallen into this 10day trap, 3 times now in the last 3 weeks. Needs to get a lot close than that to be taken seriously. 

Yes agreed it does appear to be a donkey carrot and stick situation.  Hopefully third time lucky

[Mike Poole]

ICON 12z is one for the optimists here (if any remain), really decent from T144 onwards, the low gets pushed NE allowing the high to take hold:

 

Edited May 27, 2022 by Mike Poole

[northwestsnow]

UKMO looking to build in HP by 144 ..

Hopefully things looking better...

[Frosty.]

23 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

UKMO looking to build in HP by 144 ..

Hopefully things looking better...

Indeed, BIG things have small beginnings! ️  

Edited May 27, 2022 by jon snow

[Mike Poole]

21 minutes ago, jon snow said:

Indeed, BIG things have small beginnings! ️  

Bigger too by T168:

GFS, meanwhile, at same time highlights the uncertainty:

Where’s your money today?

Edited May 27, 2022 by Mike Poole

[Don]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Where’s your money today?

It's staying firmly in my pocket for now! 

However, I may want to put money on a roller coaster ride starting up during the next few days.....

[Singularity]

It’s a bit odd how we keep seeing runs here and there (most prominently todays GFS12z & yesterday’s ECM 12z) that behave as if the MJO suddenly and rapidly collapsed in phase 7, despite all projections continuing it through at least phase 8 before weakening much.

For Mon-Sun. UKM & ICON fit to the phase 7-8 progression pretty well, as did the 06z GFS.

The alternative pathway featuring a second build of a ridge to our west up toward Greenland would be very surprising in the circumstances… but I daren't rule it out.

[StormChaseUK]

I'll treat the volatility with optimism

[minus10]

44 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

I'll treat the volatility with optimism

Yes even the flip flopping of the gfs is referred to by Mr Bett on the latest 10 day BBC forecast...interesting that the last few of these forecasts have been making a point of comparing ecm with gfs.

Weather for the Week Ahead - BBC Weather

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

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It's going to be cooler and more unsettled over the next few days, but how is it looking for the long bank holiday weekend? Darren Bett has the ten day forecast.

Think the only thing that can be said with reasonable certainty is that it will be cooler but with obvious variations on each day..