Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond

[Don]

5 hours ago, joggs said:

You couldn't make it up. Retrogressing high, winds from n or ne to start summer. 

If what is showing on the model's were only winter.......sigh.

Background sigs also not good for the 2 Nd half of summer.

I'll see you on here in November for the mild mush chase...

Is that mainly due to the persistence of La Nina or are other signals at play, too?

Edited May 25, 2022 by Don

[StormChaseUK]

43 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Oh dear! Not the greatest Ten-Day Trend I've ever seen:

 

The end of the 10 day trend if quite funny, even the Met don't know.

The low to the SW is causing a headache.

[minus10]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

Oh dear! Not the greatest Ten-Day Trend I've ever seen:

 

Good explanation by the met of the situation of forecasting in this kind of setup. Not straighforward, although hopefully with the lighter winds , strong sun and i would have thought chance of some continental air being wafted in if low to sw is in right place....maybe not all bad...

[mb018538]

If anything the 12z runs are getting worse. Upper trough now looks like getting stuck over the uk all week and slowly filling….which means rain and torrential slow moving showers with little to no wind. Best take a brolly for the Queens Jubilee…

[Guest]

The 12Z UKMO is absolutely dreadful, low double digits for 3-4days for most, maybe 15C in the south west. Parts of eastern Scotland dont get above 7-9C for 5days. ICON, GEM, GFS all have slightly different takes but all the absolute pits Sunday to at least Wednesday. 

[mb018538]

34 minutes ago, Alderc said:

The 12Z UKMO is absolutely dreadful, low double digits for 3-4days for most, maybe 15C in the south west. Parts of eastern Scotland dont get above 7-9C for 5days. ICON, GEM, GFS all have slightly different takes but all the absolute pits Sunday to at least Wednesday. 

It’s just unbelievable in either summer or winter, if there’s a naff outlook on the cards 7-10 days away then it gets nailed and often gets worse. Heatwave or snow? Nah, we will water that down to nothing. Same as the recent hot weather. Started off modelled as a nice settled hot spell, ended up an unstable humid mess.

ECM tonight is equally as poor.

[Guest]

You can always tell the model output by who's the latest poster in the thread! 

Some poor days to get through at the end of this week, but as the much more measured 10-day trend video points out, the details are far more uncertain thereafter with such a meandering, weak pattern. It won't take much at all to see something considerably better come the end of next week.

 

[mb018538]

7 minutes ago, Steel City Skies said:

You can always tell the model output by who's the latest poster in the thread! 

Some poor days to get through at the end of this week, but as the much more measured 10-day trend video points out, the details are far more uncertain thereafter with such a meandering, weak pattern. It won't take much at all to see something considerably better come the end of next week.

 

I do like a moan when the output is bad in the summer. It’s most peoples favourite time of the year, and seeing temps of 14c in early June is depressing! 

it’s a little bit pin the tail on the donkey in these set ups. You just need to get lucky and hope the upper trough is out of the way to almost kill the showers off. The only ECM chart tonight that does this is the day 10 one:

[Guest]

14 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

I do like a moan when the output is bad in the summer. It’s most peoples favourite time of the year, and seeing temps of 14c in early June is depressing! 

it’s a little bit pin the tail on the donkey in these set ups. You just need to get lucky and hope the upper trough is out of the way to almost kill the showers off. The only ECM chart tonight that does this is the day 10 one:

We can probably write off the start of next week, but as you say we need a bit of luck for the situation to improve as we pass by midweek next week. I'd rather it not be an ECM day 10 job, but beggars can't be choosers. Either way, hoping for a better trend from the weekend's output.

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

If anything the 12z runs are getting worse. Upper trough now looks like getting stuck over the uk all week and slowly filling….which means rain and torrential slow moving showers with little to no wind. Best take a brolly for the Queens Jubilee…

no anomaly support so id ignore it

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

[ANYWEATHER]

Not the way most summer lovers want to see synoptically at the start of June, but for storm lovers It looks pretty good next week. Cold unstable air aloft, given any surface heating a good recipe for home grown thunderstorms

[mb018538]

23 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

no anomaly support so id ignore it

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

That looks odd to me. Notable dip in the flow but above average heights? Surely that doesn’t add up?

[LetItSnow!]

6 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Not the way most summer lovers want to see synoptically at the start of June, but for storm lovers It looks pretty good next week. Cold unstable air aloft, given any surface heating a good recipe for home grown thunderstorms

Indeed. Some of the best thunderstorms can come from cool air aloft. I've read many reports over the years from some of those cold Victorian-era summers that had very intense thunderstorms. You don't always need heat.

[summer blizzard]

Out to day 7 and the GFS surrenders to the Euro. Upper trough close to the U.K.

[Guest]

18 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Not the way most summer lovers want to see synoptically at the start of June, but for storm lovers It looks pretty good next week. Cold unstable air aloft, given any surface heating a good recipe for home grown thunderstorms

I know what you mean but this is a dry airmass generally cold at the surface with little heating and lots of cloud, can’t imagine any decent convection to be honest In this setup.

[clark3r]

Time for a break from model watching Something more summery will return when I next log in in couple of weeks 

[mushymanrob]

36 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

That looks odd to me. Notable dip in the flow but above average heights? Surely that doesn’t add up?

the heights are surface, the flow is 500 mb.. so imho its a no mans land... neither high or low dominant but a mix of both at differing levels?

27 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

. Upper trough close to the U.K.

but only briefly?

 

[damianslaw]

Main theme is heights developing and staying strong to the NW, a chilly north easterly airflow prevails, below average temps for late May. Signal for the atlantic trough to make a beeline for the UK which would bring cool wet cyclonic conditions. We've had months of mostly sustained above average temps only a matter of time a more locked in colder than average spell happens, but really not what many including myself want to see Late May into early June - my favourite time of year.

[Cheshire Freeze]

8 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

Oh dear! Not the greatest Ten-Day Trend I've ever seen:

 

GFS 18z goes for one of the options discussed for the later outlook...LP pushes up across the UK from the S/SW. It then sits over the UK for a few days bringing diurnally driven convection. Seen some of my best summer downpours under such a set up

Edited May 25, 2022 by CreweCold

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 0z operational flirts with a plume in early..ish June… ..my cup runneth over! ️ ⛈  

Edited May 26, 2022 by jon snow

[tight isobar]

1 hour ago, jon snow said:

The Gfs 0z operational flirts with a plume in early..ish June… ..my cup runneth over! ️ ⛈  

As so the ens to a degree ( or at least begins hints).. as a few other starting to carry the same battern!!.. I get the feeling this will be a creep into heat scenario here..

[Frosty.]

The ECMWF 0z operational kind of redeems itself towards the end…and I’ve seen worse day 10’s! ? 

 

[Roadrunner]

1 minute ago, jon snow said:

The ECMWF 0z operational kind of redeems itself towards the end…and I’ve seen worse day 10’s! ? 

 

Yes, models all over the place at the moment as mentioned before. I still think there's hope for the jubilee weekend to be honest. Even if not 25 degrees I'd personally take it being dry - you can always stick a hoodie on at a street party! 

This is far from over, but then again I am an optimist - bit like Mr Snow above! 

[chapmanslade]

15 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

I think that was a bit of a freak occurrence though. Yes it is possible for northern France to sizzle while we miss out completely, but I don't think it's as common as many make out on here.

Obviously if France is hot it gives us a better chance of being hot too.

Exactly. You only have to look at the day 10 ECM (hot air over southern UK) and day 10 GFS (hot air stuck over Spain) at the moment to see how small changes make big differences to the weather we get. If the heat is 100 miles south of the UK it takes very little to get to us compared to coming from Spain. I always assume about 500 miles per day for airmass movement, so if the heat is over Spain it takes about 3 days to reach the UK with a southerly, if it is over France it takes a day. Getting a south wind for 3 days is a lot harder than for 1 day.

 

14 hours ago, Alderc said:

I know what you mean but this is a dry airmass generally cold at the surface with little heating and lots of cloud, can’t imagine any decent convection to be honest In this setup.

A dry airmass with lots of cloud ???

[Guest]

GFS 06z is a shocker for the bank holiday, blows up the low pressure to south west and develops it while moving over the uk.