Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond

[mushymanrob]

2 hours ago, bluearmy said:

That’s a brave call rob …… if forced to punt I’d be changeable at worst rather than unsettled 

 note the correction wnw of the upper trough for the weekend continues ……..

 

Changeable/unsettled.... is there much difference?

To me the Anomaly charts are suggesting average UK weather, that is Westerly based which will bring systems across us, but also ridges. Periods of cloud breezes and rain - concentrated mainly in the Northwest, mixed with sunnier/showery spells. Very much like what we expecting this week... so not bad, itll be pleasant in the sunny spells, muggy too with an Atlantic mild flow, but with wet spells.
Average for June isnt bad.

Im not sure that calling the outlook "average" unsettled/changeable given the charts, is a "brave" call, id have thought its rather safe? And until/unless the Anomalies start to suggest positive heights for the UK then average it is.

[StormChaseUK]

Long way off, but with temps that hot in NW France we are bound to get some scraps leftover on the plate for Southern UK. 

[bluearmy]

23 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Changeable/unsettled.... is there much difference?

To me the Anomaly charts are suggesting average UK weather, that is Westerly based which will bring systems across us, but also ridges. Periods of cloud breezes and rain - concentrated mainly in the Northwest, mixed with sunnier/showery spells. Very much like what we expecting this week... so not bad, itll be pleasant in the sunny spells, muggy too with an Atlantic mild flow, but with wet spells.
Average for June isnt bad.

Im not sure that calling the outlook "average" unsettled/changeable given the charts, is a "brave" call, id have thought its rather safe? And until/unless the Anomalies start to suggest positive heights for the UK then average it is.

Unsettled doesn’t really allow for a two or three day period of fine weather which is very possible (especially the further se you are) 

and I don’t agree that a settled spell is not possible later week two - before mid month is definitely outside the realms but to say pre solstice is where the brave comes in - imo of course 

[Dangerous55019]

Hello everyone. 

Time for my quick look at the CFS v2 four weekly anomaly charts, just to see if they can help other out a little bit...

Week 1 - 5th to the 11th June: High pressure is to our south over Spain and Portugal, low pressure out to the west of Ireland... Pretty much what's forecast for this coming week. Wet and potentially wind at times, but with sunny intervals in between the bands of rain. 

Week 2 - 12th to the 18th June: The low pressure out to our west, meanwhile the high pressure to our south move eastwards into main land Europe. Looking at this, I'm gonna say that an even slightly more unsettled week than this one is lurking on the horizon. 

Week 3 -  19th to the 25th June: High pressure out to our west in the Atlantic, and high pressure out to our east over central Europe... Nothing showing over us here in the UK, but that could be trough of low(er) pressure... I think we need to see how this one progresses.

Week 4 - 26th June to the 2nd July: High pressure still out to our west, low pressure over Scandinavia, to me this would put us in a northerly air flow. Certainly not a wash out, but no heatwave either.

So there you go... Sorry if that's not what people want to se or hear, but that's what the charts are showing.

I'll pop back in a few days to see what's changed. 

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 6z mean suggests a broadly NW / SE split developing in the mid range and then a general improvement across much of the u k longer term which could bode well for the second half / last third of June?…the outlook certainly isn’t terrible, especially further S / SE! ️ 

Edited June 6, 2022 by jon snow

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

Unsettled doesn’t really allow for a two or three day period of fine weather which is very possible (especially the further se you are) 

and I don’t agree that a settled spell is not possible later week two - before mid month is definitely outside the realms but to say pre solstice is where the brave comes in - imo of course 

I wouldnt have thought "changeable" either allows for a two/three day settled spell... by definition... but yes the Southeast is likely to fare better, i did single out the Northwest as getting the worst..

A settled spell is possible next week, but not, imho, on the Anomaly charts and i was (as ever) referring to what they are currently predicting. From my POV the Anomaly charts would need to change, or be wrong to have a settled spell for all of the Country (or nearly all) that lasted 3 or more days. A transient ridge may bring a more settled spell for upto 48 hours though, but that is well within what id expect from an "average" outlook!

The current 8-14 day chart goes out to the 19th, which is only 2 days away from the Solstice, given that these charts are consistent and therefore likely to be pretty accurate, then id suggest the chances of the trough to our near West disappearing before the Solstice and thus allowing high pressure to build and settle things down, are remote.

Anyway, thats my take on what i think the Anomaly charts are suggesting currently, i might be wrong, they might be wrong and change - no one would be happier than me for that to happen because i want warmth by day, clearer skies by night for NLCs

[chapmanslade]

1 hour ago, StormChaseUK said:

Long way off, but with temps that hot in NW France we are bound to get some scraps leftover on the plate for Southern UK. 

Yes, increasing number of really very hot possibilities starting to show up mid month. Control and Op on the GFS 06Z appear at odds with the ensembles, but for Paris they have a lot more support. All as a result of the troughing staying out slightly further west of the UK. 

 

[Cambrian]

No-one is entirely sure whether the number of posts criticising the recent outputs of the GFS has reached the 15% necessary to trigger a vote of confidence. 

The big questions are whether we can rely on it to get the big calls right at a time of northern hemispheric instability in the wake of tropical storm Alex; and if the no confidence vote did get passed, what would we replace it with and would we be any better off? Personally, I can’t see JMA doing any better. Some are even touting NAVGEM.

06z GFS op for 180h

 

Is it a case of just taking the poor outlook at face value, accepting that we’re reluctantly in a position of having to accept that more runs are needed and just hoping for something better down the line? Equally, the fear is, if we don’t move now, we could be stuck with this all summer. 
 

[bluearmy]

The gefs continue to drift away from low anomolys over the weekend and indeed begin to sniff a sceuro ridge exerting influence west across us next week.  that’s not the narrative!  

[mb018538]

11 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The gefs continue to drift away from low anomolys over the weekend and indeed begin to sniff a sceuro ridge exerting influence west across us next week.  that’s not the narrative!  

Probably best not look at the 12z GFS op run then. Another run for the bin.

[Roadrunner]

I'm not sure I believe any output at the moment. Just got back from a weekend camping in Winchester where I have to say we were very lucky with the weather. Yes, we had a few showers at night but overall the weather was pretty hot at times, especially Thursday and Friday. Experienced none of the doomsday scenarios some alluded to last week and, certainly where I was anyway, was overall a pretty decent few days. Tent packed away in the dry and no need to re-erect at home which was brilliant! 

GFS hasn't covered itself in glory at all of late (latest 12z is shocking BTW) but then again no model has been a front runner for me. Having visited Stonehenge at the weekend, I've a new found belief that the solstice and before will be fine. No scientific evidence for this however, just my guess. I look at it like this - I've got as much chance of being right than the models do 2 weeks down the line! 

[Guest]

An odd set of GFS ensembles, lots of uncertainty about the handling of the extratropical system this weekend about half support a stronger developed low much further north west like the Ops run advecting warmer conditions in the south for a time, the other half develop the system much less and it ambles over the UK probably taking several days to wash through. The Meto forecast issued earlier was somewhere in the middle, whereas the GEM for instance was slightly more supportive of the GFS Ops run. 

What's interesting further out is the utter dross served up, bar a couple of ensembles posing as ridiculous outliers the mean would be dreadful. In fact the mean for the 12Z s borderline utterly pointless as its represents almost none of the ensembles.  

 

 

[Captain Shortwave]

Week 1 looking solidly like a north/south split with mixed or unsettled conditions in the north and drier and warmer conditions in the south with temperatures into the low twenties with winds from the west/south west.

ECM

   
 

Week 2 is probably going to go the same way, however just hints that we could pull something warmer up from the south, but this depends on whether we can develop a cut off low towards the west of Iberia. The ECM looks more more likely to do this with the 20c isotherm already into central France, the UKMO doesn’t even reach northern Spain at the same time.

Overall, not great in the north but probably not a washout, the south looks ok with plenty of useable weather and pleasantly warm temperatures.

Edited June 6, 2022 by Captain Shortwave

[Cheshire Freeze]

5 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Week 1 looking solidly like a north/south split with mixed or unsettled conditions in the north and drier and warmer conditions in the south with temperatures into the low twenties with winds from the west/south west.

ECM

   
 

Week 2 is probably going to go the same way, however just hints that we could pull something warmer up from the south, but this depends on whether we can develop a cut off low towards the west of Iberia. The ECM looks more more likely to do this with the 20c isotherm already into central France, the UKMO doesn’t even reach northern Spain at the same time.

Overall, not great in the north but probably not a washout, the south looks ok with plenty of useable weather and pleasantly warm temperatures.

Looks to me at 168 that the ECM is about to develop that low ala GFS.

Will be interesting to see if it gains any traction in upcoming runs- could be some severe rainfall associated with it, given the energy available to tap into

[Cheshire Freeze]

Indeed, it does develop, just west/southwest of the UK...ECM says pyrotechnics for some

[Captain Shortwave]

4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Indeed, it does develop, just west/southwest of the UK...ECM says pyrotechnics for some

The first 30c maximum across central/Eastern England. There is a feature moving north east out of France. Textbook plume event 

 

Edited June 6, 2022 by Captain Shortwave

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

The first 30c maximum across central/Eastern England. There is a feature moving north east out of France. Textbook plume event 

 

Yep would be some severe storms knocking about with that chart I'd imagine.

As it stands tonight it looks like it's all about where that LP forms (if it forms at all) and how it interacts with the plume modelled to move N. GFS shows it could end up as a LP slap bang over the UK bringing copious rainfall.

Edited June 6, 2022 by CreweCold

[mb018538]

28 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Indeed, it does develop, just west/southwest of the UK...ECM says pyrotechnics for some

An interesting chart there for sure. With that amount of heat and instability then it’d go up in fireworks!

[Man With Beard]

38 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Indeed, it does develop, just west/southwest of the UK...ECM says pyrotechnics for some

That's woken me up! Surprisingly not too thundery on the relevant charts (I mean, I know it shows some, I just expected more) and of course unlikely to happen like this. But at least things are being stirred up a little rather than a jet dominated month, which is what I'd been fearing.

Edited June 6, 2022 by Man With Beard

[Guest]

43 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Yep would be some severe storms knocking about with that chart I'd imagine.

As it stands tonight it looks like it's all about where that LP forms (if it forms at all) and how it interacts with the plume modelled to move N. GFS shows it could end up as a LP slap bang over the UK bringing copious rainfall.

Nope to storms and nope to any heat on the surface conditions. The ECM maintains a west or south westerly surface flow for all but a couple of hours and we don’t tap into the potential of the hot uppers, there’s also a lack of anything convective. 

Obviously a long way but remember June 2019 when the surface north easterly stopped us tapping into 25C uppers so can easily happen.

[mb018538]

15 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

That's woken me up! Surprisingly not too thundery on the relevant charts (I mean, I know it shows some, I just expected more) and of course unlikely to happen like this. But at least things are being stirred up a little rather than a jet dominated month, which is what I'd been fearing.

Somehow - despite 850s touching 19c, that ECM run only produces 25c!

[northwestsnow]

11 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Somehow - despite 850s touching 19c, that ECM run only produces 25c!

Atlantic influence ..

[Snowy L]

Plausible route to an Azores ridge detected by GFS and ECM from day 7 onwards, a bit more hopeful of this as opposed to previous attempts that would just magic a big UK high out of nowhere on day 10.

Edited June 6, 2022 by Snowy L

[mushymanrob]

2 hours ago, bluearmy said:

The gefs continue to drift away from low anomolys over the weekend and indeed begin to sniff a sceuro ridge exerting influence west across us next week.  that’s not the narrative!  

But the NOAA anomalies continue their consistent prediction of low pressure to our near West.... Who will be proven more accurate? only time will tell...

[bluearmy]

42 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

But the NOAA anomalies continue their consistent prediction of low pressure to our near West.... Who will be proven more accurate? only time will tell...

NOAA cpc charts never include 12z runs 

if tomorrows runs continue the theme of the 12z’s then expect the cpc 6/10 to back the upper trough west a bit more tomorrow 

 

Edited June 6, 2022 by bluearmy