Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond

[Cambrian]

12z GFS op with a decent setup all through next weekend (day 8), never that warm though -

 

and breaking down from the north by the end the month as the high slips west (day 10),

 

bringing a cool and changeable start to the summer (day 11).

 

Early days. 

[Man With Beard]

Looking like another good weekend in 7 days time ... unless the high retrogrades too far to the NE?

 

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

remind me again, when was the last time we had a hot easterly ?

August 2020 brought five consecutive days of 34C to the south coast off an easterly - can't remember if it was strictly driven by a scandi high.

[mb018538]

25 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Looking like another good weekend in 7 days time ... unless the high retrogrades too far to the NE?

 

Not on the GFS it isn’t. Dreadful. Low to mid teens in many areas by Sunday. I don’t want to be seeing 850 temps of -2c at the end of May thanks!

Only decent run tonight is the UKMO. GFS and GEM pull cold air down.

[Frosty.]

I admit this is broad brush from the mid / longer term GEFS 12z mean, it doesn’t and certainly wouldn’t  tell you exactly where the high is going to be positioned / orientated.. BUT it does suggest pressure will be relatively high in the vicinity of good old Blighty at the start of the meteorological summer rather than low pressure during that time!…for now, that’s good enough for me!…the finer details will become more apparent closer to the timeframe shown…I hope! ️  

[Man With Beard]

34 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Not on the GFS it isn’t. Dreadful. Low to mid teens in many areas by Sunday. I don’t want to be seeing 850 temps of -2c at the end of May thanks!

Only decent run tonight is the UKMO. GFS and GEM pull cold air down.

Yep, GFS is the worry. 

[Methuselah]

18 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Yep, GFS is the worry. 

Is the GFS not always a worry?

[Frosty.]

The ECMWF 12z operational doesn’t end as well as the 0z but there’s still lots to like about the outlook once we reach mid / late next week onwards (especially further south), plenty of high pressure and warm surface conditions, perhaps a more showery end? ..BUT day 10 is a very unreliable range.. let’s get the high in first eh!!!… ️ ? 

 

[Guest]

2 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

Yep, GFS is the worry. 

ECM and GEM also nudging the regression way too. Need the trend to halt or the first half of June could turn ugly quickly.

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, jon snow said:

The ECMWF 12z operational doesn’t end as well as the 0z but there’s still lots to like about the outlook once we reach mid / late next week onwards (especially further south), plenty of high pressure and warm surface conditions, perhaps a more showery end? ..BUT day 10 is a very unreliable range.. let’s get the high in first eh!!!… ️ ? 

 

The trend from the models today is to kick the high NW very quickly, with the trough forced down on the UK. Its a while off, and the high could end up further east, but if today's models verify.. mmm a possible poor Jubilee 4 day spell ahead, but as said long way off. In the meantime, unsettled few days ahead and cooler than recently, before settling down again by next weekend, becoming warmer. 

[Portsmouth Sun]

Just now, Man With Beard said:

August 2020 brought five consecutive days of 34C to the south coast off an easterly - can't remember if it was strictly driven by a scandi high.

Remember it well. Lovely weather, but as always the TV forecasts always had the coast much cooler. Love an easterly in Portsmouth in summer, nice and hot.

[Don]

3 hours ago, Alderc said:

ECM and GEM also nudging the regression way too. Need the trend to halt or the first half of June could turn ugly quickly.

Fine line between a flaming June and washout?!

[Guest]

Again the GFS Ops run is pretty much bottom of the Ensemble pile, a better ensemble mean but it’s hard to ignore when a repeating theme and back strongly by the control run. GEM almost identical in bringing a chilly northerly in during the start of June. Let’s just hope trends follow what normally happens in winter and the northerly ends up several hundred miles east….UKMO regresses the high to quickly to T168 but  maybe not a far. Either way cloud from the North Sea could become a major problem yet again in this setup. More runs needed. 

[clark3r]

Enjoy the warmth today, by the look of charts maybe a while before we hit the low 20s again 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

16 minutes ago, clark3r said:

Enjoy the warmth today, by the look of charts maybe a while before we hit the low 20s again 

Met office has us at 21c next Saturday. Assume the met office models are hinting at a different setup.. to be fair all of next week we around 18-21c which given the time of year is bang on average 

GFS as we all know has a tendency to over do low pressure and soemtimes struggles with high pressure location.

Be interesting to see how the next 2 weeks go and how the pan out. Could be quite cold given time of year for East Coast locations and northern areas... 

Subject to change of course 

[Man With Beard]

31 minutes ago, clark3r said:

Enjoy the warmth today, by the look of charts maybe a while before we hit the low 20s again 

ECM has the southern half of the UK in the low 20s next Saturday (away from eastern counties).

Beyond that, though, it's looking dodgy but not hopeless. Ridges to the NW are likely to be chillier than average. Could we be rescued by eastward corrections, though?

Edited May 22, 2022 by Man With Beard

[Frosty.]

Not the best ECMWF 0z op day 10 chart, as I said recently I’m not liking this retrogressive tendency on the cusp of summer, save this for winter (if only) !…but then, looking at the bigger picture, it’s not good for western, northern and Eastern Europe either..we are all in it together…however, it’s day 10, unreliable timeframe..anyway, the models don’t control the weather..so it could be wrong!

 

[Guest]

The end of the ECM is really poor, temps pinned into the mid teens under a chilly airmass, easterly undercut and tonnes of cloud from the northeast. From the ECM D10 chart its almost impossible to see how this doesn't evolve into the high regressing further NW and the upper trough plonking down over the UK for the Jubilee weekend, there is no other logical outcome. 

Also interesting that the GEM ensembles are very similar to the GFS, lots of decent members but unfortunately the Ops and Control runs offer the regressing high to the north west. 

After 20years of model watching its almost a slam-dunk in summer synoptics that when there reasonable cross model support at D9-10 for naff synoptics (using involving a trough near the UK) 8 or9 times out of 10 the actual outcome usually won't be to far from that. Yes sounds negative, no I don't have any proof but combined with a double bank holiday weekend when many off us are hoping for the best with lots of plans we all know which way its going to go. 

[Mike Poole]

I don’t think this retrogression to the NW is guaranteed in the day 7-10 timeframe.  The ECM clusters in that range have 4 different options:

Cluster 1 goes with the op with 40% probability.  The other clusters about 20% each, with 2 and 4, 4 in particular, looking much more promising. Which one will be right does not depend on when the UK bank holidays are, I shouldn’t have to point out.

[sheikhy]

We are in for a lot of dry weather but thats the only positive i can see on the models this morning!after this week the high goes northwest and we are in big trouble in chilly cloudy northeasterly air!!!at this time if the year northern blocking can prove very hard to shift as well!!we gota see that high flattened out in future runs!!obviously not too flat lol!!

[Guest]

16 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I don’t think this retrogression to the NW is guaranteed in the day 7-10 timeframe.  The ECM clusters in that range have 4 different options:

Cluster 1 goes with the op with 40% probability.  The other clusters about 20% each, with 2 and 4, 4 in particular, looking much more promising. Which one will be right does not depend on when the UK bank holidays are, I shouldn’t have to point out.

Completely agree (especially with the bank holiday timing, its just so many times its jam side down), its just the nagging trend that the Ops / Control runs are going against their own ensemble packs which gives me the most concern. This looks evident for GFS / ECM and GEM. 

Edited May 22, 2022 by Alderc

[knocker]

27 minutes ago, Alderc said:

The end of the ECM is really poor, temps pinned into the mid teens under a chilly airmass, easterly undercut and tonnes of cloud from the northeast. From the ECM D10 chart its almost impossible to see how this doesn't evolve into the high regressing further NW and the upper trough plonking down over the UK for the Jubilee weekend, there is no other logical outcome. 

Also interesting that the GEM ensembles are very similar to the GFS, lots of decent members but unfortunately the Ops and Control runs offer the regressing high to the north west. 

After 20years of model watching its almost a slam-dunk in summer synoptics that when there reasonable cross model support at D9-10 for naff synoptics (using involving a trough near the UK) 8 or9 times out of 10 the actual outcome usually won't be to far from that. Yes sounds negative, no I don't have any proof but combined with a double bank holiday weekend when many off us are hoping for the best with lots of plans we all know which way its going to go. 

But over last two days of the ecm run it develops a wave in the Denmark Straits on the elongated front that is running south from there and then develops it as it pushes through the ridge to be over Scotland at the end. I would have thought assuming that this will turn out to be anywhere near correct, withouy confirming evidence, to be fraught with danger.

Edited May 22, 2022 by knocker

[mb018538]

We got stuck under a lot of cut of low/upper low cold pools last summer and they are just a pain in the backside. Seems to be a clear trend to start pulling everything north and west though, which depending on how far it goes could be alright all the way to cold and cloudy with showers. 

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

We got stuck under a lot of cut of low/upper low cold pools last summer and they are just a pain in the backside. Seems to be a clear trend to start pulling everything north and west though, which depending on how far it goes could be alright all the way to cold and cloudy with showers. 

And we all know the history, once we are under those setups its very rarely a 2-3days spell that quickly improves. Hopefully not similar to last summer, although those further north and west and closer to the HP probably wouldn't mind.

[Captain Shortwave]

27 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I don’t think this retrogression to the NW is guaranteed in the day 7-10 timeframe.  The ECM clusters in that range have 4 different options:

Cluster 1 goes with the op with 40% probability.  The other clusters about 20% each, with 2 and 4, 4 in particular, looking much more promising. Which one will be right does not depend on when the UK bank holidays are, I shouldn’t have to point out.

I guess at this point we do have to consider that maybe the blocking high will prevail, albeit the weather will be more gloomy than washout. Still I’m not overly convinced at the moment and this does seem to be the opinion elsewhere too with high pressure more robust across NW Europe into week 2, especially as we have good agreement on low pressure setting up west of Portugal which is usually a good thing.

I guess it is a case of ‘wait and see’.

Edited May 22, 2022 by Captain Shortwave