Spring and Summer weather moans

[al78]

6 hours ago, Summer8906 said:

Summers do repeatedly seem to feature low jetstreams meaning the southern UK is unseasonably dull and damp most years, and Scotland, particularly the north, perhaps less so. 2018 seems to have been the only real exception in recent years; IIRC the last summer month to be both warmer and sunnier than normal in the south was July 2018.

Up to 2018 the Junes tended to be better than the Julys and Augusts (e.g. fine Junes in 2015 and 2017 then led to poor second halves of the summer), but we haven't even seen a good June (through most or all of the month) since 2018.

June 2020 was warmer and a little drier than average (1991-2020 climatology) in the south central and south east. The only other parts of the UK which were dry that month were the Orkney and Shetland islands, most of the mainland was wetter than average.

[Guest]

Anyone wanting a warm settled spell don’t look at GFS this morning, it has a complete capitulation of heights over the Uk by early next week and low pressure dominant! 
 

Edited May 11, 2022 by Alderc

[SunSean]

Right, think I need to take some time away from here for a while lol. Seeing the models downgrade every single time is deflating as hell. For the 2nd time this May, in an exact carbon copy of the week prior, all the mid twenties and full sun with high pressure dominating once again turn to lower temps and mostly cloudy barring the odd day. I officially give up on forecasts and models as all they do is disappoint. Once again, UK climate is garbage.

[markyo]

Much fresher morning today, far more comfortable for working in. Thankfully the heat for next week continues to be downgraded, there's another 3 months to endure so i'm more than happy with a cooler Spring. The less time with the aircon on the better!

Edited May 11, 2022 by markyo

[weatherguru14]

Where is the met office getting this forecast from?? (guess they waiting to back track a little later on so they don't appear too be useless)

 

Sunday 15 May - Tuesday 24 May

High pressure continues across the UK at first, centring over the east and northeast, while a lower pressure develops over the west. Fine dry weather can be expected for most, with an increased chance of more unsettled weather in the west and southwest. Through the first part of this period, the east-west split becomes more apparent. With settled weather continuing in the northeast, cloudier conditions, and the possibility of showers, potentially heavy and thundery, may be expected for the west and southwest. Towards the second weekend, this unsettled weather over the west may spread further eastwards, bringing generally more changeable conditions for most. Temperatures will be widely warm or very warm for most through this period, perhaps locally hot in the south and southeast.

Updated: 15:00 (UTC+1) on Tue 10 May 2022

[Azazel]

1 hour ago, SunSean said:

Right, think I need to take some time away from here for a while lol. Seeing the models downgrade every single time is deflating as hell. For the 2nd time this May, in an exact carbon copy of the week prior, all the mid twenties and full sun with high pressure dominating once again turn to lower temps and mostly cloudy barring the odd day. I officially give up on forecasts and models as all they do is disappoint. Once again, UK climate is garbage.

Amen. Looks like the bbq is staying in the garage - maybe i'll get it out in september like last year.

[Guest]

36 minutes ago, weatherguru14 said:

Where is the met office getting this forecast from?? (guess they waiting to back track a little later on so they don't appear too be useless)

 

Sunday 15 May - Tuesday 24 May

High pressure continues across the UK at first, centring over the east and northeast, while a lower pressure develops over the west. Fine dry weather can be expected for most, with an increased chance of more unsettled weather in the west and southwest. Through the first part of this period, the east-west split becomes more apparent. With settled weather continuing in the northeast, cloudier conditions, and the possibility of showers, potentially heavy and thundery, may be expected for the west and southwest. Towards the second weekend, this unsettled weather over the west may spread further eastwards, bringing generally more changeable conditions for most. Temperatures will be widely warm or very warm for most through this period, perhaps locally hot in the south and southeast.

Updated: 15:00 (UTC+1) on Tue 10 May 2022

Embarrassingly lagging behind again with these forecasts! 

[dubmuffin]

Quick moan here about the wind. Really getting on my nerves now. We are in the middle of a 10 day van trip, we have done Southern Scotland are now in Northumberland. I can cope with the temps and showers, and had one day of rain which we drove East to escape, but there has been a constant gusty wind that we can't avoid, only had 1 day of relative calm on Sunday.

[weatherguru14]

1 hour ago, Alderc said:

Embarrassingly lagging behind again with these forecasts! 

I only really come on this site at this time of year. It seems every year  this thing happens. All the models and the media are bigging up the weather.. We had the BBC saying  a couple of days back. 24/25/26c in the south.. even my location on the 10 day weather had 23c for 2 days .now its back to slightly above average... Like like last August and the so called heatwave which never happened. The met office in their prediction made it appear it was nailed on for a week and half. Then just  a day or so before it was suppose to happen.. Alex Deakin came on the youtube channel and instead of admitting they made it appear an heatwave was going to happen. He claimed it was the results of models.. The same models they use words like 

 "Temperatures will be widely warm or very warm for most through this period, perhaps locally hot in the south and southeast"

Most people I know and spoken too, got the feeling the weather from the weekend onwards was on the way  up and we'd get a taste of summer. 

It's not a complaint just wish they wouldn't use wording like that.. 

[Guest]

30 minutes ago, weatherguru14 said:

I only really come on this site at this time of year. It seems every year  this thing happens. All the models and the media are bigging up the weather.. We had the BBC saying  a couple of days back. 24/25/26c in the south.. even my location on the 10 day weather had 23c for 2 days .now its back to slightly above average... Like like last August and the so called heatwave which never happened. The met office in their prediction made it appear it was nailed on for a week and half. Then just  a day or so before it was suppose to happen.. Alex Deakin came on the youtube channel and instead of admitting they made it appear an heatwave was going to happen. He claimed it was the results of models.. The same models they use words like 

 "Temperatures will be widely warm or very warm for most through this period, perhaps locally hot in the south and southeast"

Most people I know and spoken too, got the feeling the weather from the weekend onwards was on the way  up and we'd get a taste of summer. 

It's not a complaint just wish they wouldn't use wording like that.. 

I don’t like the fact that no one in meteorology likes to admit something is just wrong or they got something wrong. Sometimes stuff just goes wrong, I wish they’d hold they hands up and say something has changed in the mid-term, explain it and move on. Not ‘oh no, we never said that’ 

Edited May 11, 2022 by Alderc

[Weather Enthusiast91]

Whilst the posts in the model thread can certainly raise hopes as well as make for an interesting read at times, I have learned that anything mentioned in there is to be taken with a pinch of salt - likewise with BBC Weather and Inaccuweather. It is very difficult for even the most experienced weather forecasters to correctly predict the weather any more than a few days in advance, particularly in this country. Still,  there is plenty of time yet for warm/hot sunny weather.  

Edited May 11, 2022 by Weather Enthusiast91

[Ross90]

11 minutes ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

Whilst the posts in the model thread can certainly raise hopes as well as make for an interesting read at times, I have learned that anything mentioned in there is to be taken with a pinch of salt - likewise with BBC Weather and Inaccuweather. It is very difficult for even the most experienced weather forecasters to correctly predict the weather any more than a few days in advance, particularly in this country. Still,  there is plenty of time yet for warm/hot sunny weather.  

It is difficult to predict but i'm sure i'm not the only one who thinks that advances in forecasting have rather stalled over the last 5-10 years. Maybe we've just reached the peak of how accurately weather can be predicted.

[AderynCoch]

21 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

still snowing here ..woke up to snow and -4c... been a pretty damp cold spring so far save the odd day here or there

Crazy. 25C and sunny here at noon. Might reach 30C tomorrow. Snow feels like a distant memory right now!

It's been a warm and thundery May here so far, in contrast to the last three (which could have easily passed for crappy Octobers).

[weatherguru14]

I would be  happy for a repeat of last summer. It was excellent here.  apart from August.. But September made up for that 

[Azazel]

lovely and cold wet and windy november afternoon today

[stainesbloke]

Another beauty of a day here, 27°C and sunny but with a gusty SW’ly wind. I see autumn has returned to the UK  

[Guest]

Ugh, it’s another poor forecast today, the rain was meant to fragment, break and with very little getting here. It’s been raining for 5hrs so far with another several hours to come. 
 

It seems like there’s been a few instances recently of these sorts of days…

In fact it’s absolutely chucking it down now. 

Edited May 11, 2022 by Alderc

[kieranweatherfan]

Think people expect too much for may the average is only 16/17 and I have been above that each day so far, In fact this spring has been above average I ain’t complaint whatsoever,

those wanting 27 or above is still too early, 22 is absolutely perfect for may, and that’s the forecast for Saturday! Absolutely perfect 

[Petorious]

The averages are not my issue, think most know the averages. The problem is the forecasting is terrible our weather has or so it seems become very difficult to forecast, The weather changes so often and right up to the day of what's suppose to happen.

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Petorious said:

The averages are not my issue, think most know the averages. The problem is the forecasting is terrible our weather has or so it seems become very difficult to forecast, The weather changes so often and right up to the day of what's suppose to happen.

Agreed, and as for wanting 27C it’s not too early given that can be reached in Mid April. 

[al78]

1 hour ago, Alderc said:

Ugh, it’s another poor forecast today, the rain was meant to fragment, break and with very little getting here. It’s been raining for 5hrs so far with another several hours to come. 
 

It seems like there’s been a few instances recently of these sorts of days…

In fact it’s absolutely chucking it down now. 

Good, the transplanted veg on my allotment getting a good watering. We've had someone elses semi-arid climate for the last five weeks now, it is about time we had some near normal weather conditions.

[al78]

29 minutes ago, Petorious said:

The averages are not my issue, think most know the averages. The problem is the forecasting is terrible our weather has or so it seems become very difficult to forecast, The weather changes so often and right up to the day of what's suppose to happen.

The forecasting isn't terrible, it is people's expectations of the model skill more than a few days out which is terrible. If people are going to look at GFS or whatever model output and salivate over a heatwave or blizzard at lead 240, then they are asking to be disappointed.

The weather hasn't changed so often, that is one of the problems I'm having with allotment gardening. Weeks of bone dry and weeks of soaking wet seem to have become the norm over the last five years or so. The UK seems to be losing its high frequency variability and turning into some hybrid of a mid-latitude temperate and tropical wet-dry Frankenstein climate. One of the forecasting difficulties is when a blocked pattern will break down, and we have had quite a few blocked patterns in recent years.

[TwisterGirl81]

27 minutes ago, al78 said:

Good, the transplanted veg on my allotment getting a good watering. We've had someone elses semi-arid climate for the last five weeks now, it is about time we had some near normal weather conditions.

It's been a very dry winter/spring to be honest, I can't remember the last time we got a real good wet soaking period, will be interested to see met office figures for this

[summer blizzard]

Strictly speaking we are behind the average date for 25C now so while I'd be happy with not hitting that, I do understand. If we don't hit in the next week, there is a chance that we could see out May without hitting it.

[Freeze]

Half hour of light drizzle and that's it, seems like it hasn't rained properly in months. Hopeful for some good ol' thundery downpours weekend onwards.