Spring and Summer weather moans

[al78]

1 hour ago, RJBingham said:

can't believe the grass is dead this time of the year, normally I'm fighting through it  with a machete     

I'm about to mow my lawn, for the second time this year.

[Methuselah]

11 hours ago, NEVES SCREAMER said:

We are working class you know. We go to the pub. We drink beer.

I'm also working class; I neither go to the pub nor drink beer!

[Methuselah]

13 hours ago, stainesbloke said:

Haha I’m very much enjoying the climate in Central Europe but, just like the UK, the dreary colder months seem to go on for far too long. I’d love to retire somewhere warmer, like Australia or Mexico. Only 16 years to go  

A warm week to come here, might get a couple of days reaching 28°C midweek, pretty impressive for May

I was thinking of retiring to mainland Europe but, alas, the skinheads stole that option!

[*Stormforce~beka*]

5 hours ago, al78 said:

I'm about to mow my lawn, for the second time this year.

We have chickens. We haven't mowed our lawn once. This is mostly due to the fact we have no lawn left mind ...

3 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

I'm also working class; I neither go to the pub nor drink beer!

Me either!!! I got married to a good man. I've been dragged up to middle class and off of the council estate. Lucky chick I am!

[TheOgre]

It seems to be heating up next week It seems however there is never any record breaking heat in May compared to other months.

What is the earliest and latest ever 30C in the U.K.?

[Weather Enthusiast91]

7 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

I'm also working class; I neither go to the pub nor drink beer!

Give me a nice glass of JD and cola any day. Although I am partial to a cold glass of cider on a warm day. 

[damianslaw]

Latest GFS pulling the high further away more quickly early next week allowing the Atlantic trough in.. indeed a 24 hr plume at best. Thundery showery trough highly likely there. Let's see if ECM pulls any lengthy warm dry spell away from us.

[NEVES SCREAMER]

I'm not currently in the pub or drinking beer. But I have just been for a jog down by the Staffordshire/worcester canal. It's really lovely down there and it has been a bit warmer today with a fair old breeze and hazy sunshine.  Looks like a mixed few days coming up with maybe another warm up end of the week according to the BBC weather.

[BruenSryan]

1 hour ago, TheOgre said:

It seems to be heating up next week It seems however there is never any record breaking heat in May compared to other months.

What is the earliest and latest ever 30C in the U.K.?

12 May 1945 - 30.6C at Camden Square

27 September 1895 - 30.6C at Stratfield Turgis

[Guest]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

Latest GFS pulling the high further away more quickly early next week allowing the Atlantic trough in.. indeed a 24 hr plume at best. Thundery showery trough highly likely there. Let's see if ECM pulls any lengthy warm dry spell away from us.

This warm spell is becoming farcical already. First this weeks mess now next week starting to look like slim pickings. The GFS ensemble mean also starting to look more lumpy opposed to plateaued type warm spell it was previously showing. Also GEM very similar. ICON also plumey.
 

TBH I wouldn’t be surprised if 25C is not reached at all into next week with the way things are trending. 

[Guest]

To be fair ECM is much more palatable. It stall the Atlantic for 3 or 4 days allowing some really quite plumey conditions quite far west and several rounds of fireworks. To good to be true to be honest. 

[Andy Bown]

51 minutes ago, Alderc said:

TBH I wouldn’t be surprised if 25C is not reached at all into next week with the way things are trending. 

The Points West forecast at 13.45 showed 26c for next Monday. This evening it showed 22c for next Monday!

[Frost HoIIow]

47 minutes ago, Alderc said:

This warm spell is becoming farcical already. First this weeks mess now next week starting to look like slim pickings. The GFS ensemble mean also starting to look more lumpy opposed to plateaued type warm spell it was previously showing. Also GEM very similar. ICON also plumey.
 

TBH I wouldn’t be surprised if 25C is not reached at all into next week with the way things are trending. 

Well I think most people will take 22-24C though and in the strong May sunshine it'll feel nice enough and is shorts and t shirt weather for most people. This still looks likely imo. Not a fan of proper heat myself so this will be fine for me. Heat and intense plumes are quite rare in May anyway and if anyone is looking for that they will be disappointed most of the time. Same with looking for snow in October. I'm sure there will be an opportunity for plumes between now and August with our warming world. The odds are higher these days.

[stainesbloke]

1 hour ago, Alderc said:

To be fair ECM is much more palatable. It stall the Atlantic for 3 or 4 days allowing some really quite plumey conditions quite far west and several rounds of fireworks. To good to be true to be honest. 

Would be good, some decent thundery activity always welcome, not poxy drizzle and 15°C  

Edited May 9, 2022 by stainesbloke

[Summer8906]

On 08/05/2022 at 13:24, al78 said:

The semi-arid climate is still locked into the SE. No rain forecast for Horsham for the next week according to the Met Office. Two days of low accumulations of rain in six weeks is ridiculous

Have no fear, I can almost guarantee that the rain will be coming down by the bucketload in August

Such is our climate these days, a definite seasonal pattern in rainfall seems to have emerged.

Edited May 10, 2022 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

Dull damp southwesterlies today, not particularly welcome.

However it looks like it's fairly short lived, perhaps 2 or 3 days. That said, nature is well past what it should be in early May, so what I really want right now, for the next few weeks at least, is some dry and cool weather! Maybe with the odd bit of convective action - a northerly type would be welcome. Really don't want nature to reach that jaded mid/late summer look before time. I would even go so far as to say spring is already over down here. The trees have lost that "fresh" green shade which more normally typifies early May - nature seems to resemble the very end of May or even early June.

So far, 2022 (and the last four months of 2021) seems to have been notable for perpetual mild airmasses. Any northerlies have been very short lived, and aside from the end of March/beginning of April, the spring northerlies have completely failed this year.

But perhaps this is becoming normal. We seem to be getting locked into a repeating pattern of fine but excessively warm springs and dull damp summers (cool by day, warm by night), dull mild autumns (with a fine spell in September) and dull, mild, damp winters. So much so that max temps seem to flatline at about 17-19C for about six months of the year, from mid April to mid Oct!

Edited May 10, 2022 by Summer8906

[Sunny76]

A warming world doesn’t guarantee the U.K. hotter weather or early plumes.

If anything, the summers of recent have been poor on the storm front, and hot periods have been very limited.

2021 was dreary and cloudy for most of last summer. One of the worst.

[richie3846]

1 hour ago, Sunny76 said:

A warming world doesn’t guarantee the U.K. hotter weather or early plumes.

If anything, the summers of recent have been poor on the storm front, and hot periods have been very limited.

2021 was dreary and cloudy for most of last summer. One of the worst.

A quick reminder, further north enjoyed a much better summer, the worst of the crud was localised to the south east. Even 80 miles west in Swindon we had a much better summer than you guys, even though it was not great. Further north fared much better overall. 

[Guest]

17 hours ago, Alderc said:

This warm spell is becoming farcical already. First this weeks mess now next week starting to look like slim pickings. The GFS ensemble mean also starting to look more lumpy opposed to plateaued type warm spell it was previously showing. Also GEM very similar. ICON also plumey.
 

TBH I wouldn’t be surprised if 25C is not reached at all into next week with the way things are trending. 

Gfs 06z is awful and really quite wet at times now. Max temps around 23C for a day on Sunday. What a mess! 

[Summer8906]

19 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Gfs 06z is awful and really quite wet at times now. Max temps around 23C for a day on Sunday. What a mess! 

IMO it's not too terrible but next week does look something like a repeat of this, i.e. some dull damp weather for a couple of days next week. Then it becomes drier and more settled again for the following weekend.

Edited May 10, 2022 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

3 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

A warming world doesn’t guarantee the U.K. hotter weather or early plumes.

If anything, the summers of recent have been poor on the storm front, and hot periods have been very limited.

2021 was dreary and cloudy for most of last summer. One of the worst.

Summers do repeatedly seem to feature low jetstreams meaning the southern UK is unseasonably dull and damp most years, and Scotland, particularly the north, perhaps less so. 2018 seems to have been the only real exception in recent years; IIRC the last summer month to be both warmer and sunnier than normal in the south was July 2018.

Up to 2018 the Junes tended to be better than the Julys and Augusts (e.g. fine Junes in 2015 and 2017 then led to poor second halves of the summer), but we haven't even seen a good June (through most or all of the month) since 2018.

Edited May 10, 2022 by Summer8906

[Downburst]

Well looking ahead to the Long Range and the Summer months proper. Looking like an average Summer, so a little bit of this and a little bit of that. Climate used here is 1993 to 2016. We will have to wait and see but no matter what I'll just get on with it and get out and about outdoors as it's the best time of the year always.

Temps

Sea Level Pressure - We get the mean. Which is no bad thing, even if this is over 3 months and can hide various anomalies that may happen over a week or two in that period.

Rainfal l looks average

 

[cheeky_monkey]

still snowing here ..woke up to snow and -4c... been a pretty damp cold spring so far save the odd day here or there

[reef]

4 hours ago, Downburst said:

Well looking ahead to the Long Range and the Summer months proper. Looking like an average Summer, so a little bit of this and a little bit of that. Climate used here is 1993 to 2016. We will have to wait and see but no matter what I'll just get on with it and get out and about outdoors as it's the best time of the year always.

Temps

Sea Level Pressure - We get the mean. Which is no bad thing, even if this is over 3 months and can hide various anomalies that may happen over a week or two in that period.

Rainfal l looks average

 

Not really average when its around 1C above the 1993-2016 mean! That would be a summer with a CET of around 17.0C, just 0.2C below the likes of 2006 and 2018.

It would be the joint 10th warmest in the entire CET series.

Edited May 10, 2022 by reef

[al78]

9 hours ago, Summer8906 said:

Dull damp southwesterlies today, not particularly welcome.

However it looks like it's fairly short lived, perhaps 2 or 3 days. That said, nature is well past what it should be in early May, so what I really want right now, for the next few weeks at least, is some dry and cool weather! Maybe with the odd bit of convective action - a northerly type would be welcome. Really don't want nature to reach that jaded mid/late summer look before time. I would even go so far as to say spring is already over down here. The trees have lost that "fresh" green shade which more normally typifies early May - nature seems to resemble the very end of May or even early June.

So far, 2022 (and the last four months of 2021) seems to have been notable for perpetual mild airmasses. Any northerlies have been very short lived, and aside from the end of March/beginning of April, the spring northerlies have completely failed this year.

But perhaps this is becoming normal. We seem to be getting locked into a repeating pattern of fine but excessively warm springs and dull damp summers (cool by day, warm by night), dull mild autumns (with a fine spell in September) and dull, mild, damp winters. So much so that max temps seem to flatline at about 17-19C for about six months of the year, from mid April to mid Oct!

Last spring wasn't warm. April 2021 was the frostiest for nearly a century, and had more frosts than an average winter month, thanks to a blocking high to our NW. We did have some colder weather in January this year as well as the end of March/early April.