Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards

[Weather-history]

7 minutes ago, AWD said:

03z UKV, as a broad brush view at this point, shows the potential for quite a widespread attribution of storm activity Tuesday night into Wednesday morning;

 

 

 

 

That would be typical, my area is in the gap. 

[The Tall Weatherman]

This set up does remind me of 25th July 2019 slightly, possibly some big surfaced based storms setting up around northern Britain with possible giant hail based on the CIN and very frequent lightning. Got some SVR soundings coming in with a 6-7 on the supercell composite in some northern areas. Then it looks like possibly the midlands and the south west could see some big night time storms.

[camturbo]

7 minutes ago, The Tall Weatherman said:

This set up does remind me of 25th July 2019 slightly, possibly some big surfaced based storms setting up around northern Britain with possible giant hail based on the CIN and very frequent lightning. Got some SVR soundings coming in with a 6-7 on the supercell composite in some northern areas. Then it looks like possibly the midlands and the south west could see some big night time storms.

That's sounds good for my locale but it would be good if all of us could catch something after all this heat we've endured. Still a few days out yet but hope is there 

[The Tall Weatherman]

1 minute ago, camturbo said:

That's sounds good for my locale but it would be good if all of us could catch something after all this heat we've endured. Still a few days out yet but hope is there 

I’m hoping Northern England gets out of it and it’s a southern event.

[camturbo]

3 minutes ago, The Tall Weatherman said:

I’m hoping Northern England gets out of it and it’s a southern event.

Still time for it too change,bit of hope casting for the time being

[ChannelThunder]

25 minutes ago, The Tall Weatherman said:

This set up does remind me of 25th July 2019 slightly, possibly some big surfaced based storms setting up around northern Britain with possible giant hail based on the CIN and very frequent lightning. Got some SVR soundings coming in with a 6-7 on the supercell composite in some northern areas. Then it looks like possibly the midlands and the south west could see some big night time storms.

I would happily settle for a repeat of that date's storms right now!

A few radar and sferic grabs from my phone that night:

[Joey.GII]

1 hour ago, ResonantChannelThunder said:

I would happily settle for a repeat of that date's storms right now!

A few radar and sferic grabs from my phone that night:

That was a great night. Super frequent lightning though very high based where I was. There was a lot more CG activity as the system developed further north. Photo and a radar grab from that night:

 

 

[tomp456]

I know we in the south have already had a few storms this year, but I still think its a monumental fail on an epic scale from mother nature, that the north look set to be getting them after this heatwave.

If I'd had known, I'd have given the north the May storms! 

 

Having said that....who knows what will happen here early next week..... my all time favorite thunderstorm occurred almost 8 years ago to the day....wasn't forecast at all. Got a pasting early in the morning! 

 

[Weather-history]

1 hour ago, ResonantChannelThunder said:

I would happily settle for a repeat of that date's storms right now!

A few radar and sferic grabs from my phone that night:

 

20 minutes ago, [email protected] said:

That was a great night. Super frequent lightning though very high based where I was. There was a lot more CG activity as the system developed further north. Photo and a radar grab from that night:

 

 

 

[viking_smb]

@staplehurst any thoughts yet on tues please mate?

[ChannelThunder]

I do keep banging on about this, but we're now into the territory where I want to see more slowing of the low on models while they're honing in on the detail between 48-72 hours. The more delayed it is, the better the chances of a night time light show for more of us, and the more chance of a July '19 style event like spoken about above.

Edited July 16, 2022 by ResonantChannelThunder

[camturbo]

1 hour ago, viking_smb said:

@staplehurst any thoughts yet on tues please mate?

I would be interested in those thought to?? 

[viking_smb]

2 hours ago, ResonantChannelThunder said:

I do keep banging on about this, but we're now into the territory where I want to see more slowing of the low on models while they're honing in on the detail between 48-72 hours. The more delayed it is, the better the chances of a night time light show for more of us, and the more chance of a July '19 style event like spoken about above.

i doubt mother nature will listen to us mate. I personally think we will get storms during the day not at night

[Sunny76]

8 hours ago, ResonantChannelThunder said:

I would happily settle for a repeat of that date's storms right now!

A few radar and sferic grabs from my phone that night:

We didn’t get any storms from the 2019 hot spell. It was a weak storm in the early morning. 

2 minutes ago, viking_smb said:

i doubt mother nature will listen to us mate. I personally think we will get storms during the day not at night

Any chance it will be like the August 1981 event where it went pitch black during the daytime due to high altitude storm clouds of 60,000 feet?

[Sunny76]

7 hours ago, tomp456 said:

I know we in the south have already had a few storms this year, but I still think its a monumental fail on an epic scale from mother nature, that the north look set to be getting them after this heatwave.

If I'd had known, I'd have given the north the May storms! 

 

Having said that....who knows what will happen here early next week..... my all time favorite thunderstorm occurred almost 8 years ago to the day....wasn't forecast at all. Got a pasting early in the morning! 

 

July 2014, on a Thursday night. Think that was the week after the World Cup final in Brazil. 

[AWD]

Latest, 15z UKV, shows a distinct lack of anything notable, convective wise through Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Isolated storms in SW England Tuesday evening into Tuesday night, becoming a bit more scattered on Wednesday over Southern England and the Midlands.  Very hit and miss though.

I won't post the charts because there really isn't a great deal to see.

[ChannelThunder]

29 minutes ago, AWD said:

Latest, 15z UKV, shows a distinct lack of anything notable, convective wise through Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Isolated storms in SW England Tuesday evening into Tuesday night, becoming a bit more scattered on Wednesday over Southern England and the Midlands.  Very hit and miss though.

I won't post the charts because there really isn't a great deal to see.

Wow, that run really is beyond awful 

[pad199207]

ECM holds a bit of hope

[Frosty hollows]

9 hours ago, tomp456 said:

I know we in the south have already had a few storms this year, but I still think its a monumental fail on an epic scale from mother nature, that the north look set to be getting them after this heatwave.

If I'd had known, I'd have given the north the May storms! 

 

Having said that....who knows what will happen here early next week..... my all time favorite thunderstorm occurred almost 8 years ago to the day....wasn't forecast at all. Got a pasting early in the morning! 

 

Google July 1969. South of England sizzler while Yorkshire was struck by some of the most severe storms on record

[LeeKay/]

ECMWF - Via windy.com

Tuesday to Wednesday 19th to 20th July

Posted the same 24 hrs ago. No real change, depends on your model run

Edited July 16, 2022 by LeeKay/
Dates

[Harry's House]

19 minutes ago, Frosty hollows said:

Google July 1969. South of England sizzler while Yorkshire was struck by some of the most severe storms on record

I thought it was in June 1969. I remember about the middle of that month in Essex enjoying gin clear skies at the same time as Yorkshire were suffering from thunder and floods.  

[A Face like Thunder]

11 hours ago, Weather-history said:

That would be typical, my area is in the gap. 

BBC NW weather forecast this evening showed the 'big heat' on Monday and Tuesday, and the 'big bang' on Wednesday, with temperatures falling back to 19C from a high approaching 40C.

Reminded me of Alton, Hants in mid-September 2016 - extreme heat on 13th and 14th followed by the 'big bang' overnight 14th / 15th. 

[Sprites]

Convective Weather

WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

---

Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

Day 1 Convective Outlook: Sat 16 Jul 2022    

 

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 16 Jul 2022 - 05:59 UTC Sun 17 Jul 2022

 

ISSUED 11:29 UTC Sat 16 Jul 2022

ISSUED BY: Dan

While the risk is very low in any one location, a stout EML will advect northeastwards through Saturday evening and night across the Irish Sea and adjacent portions of Britain and Ireland. Gradual moistening of the mid-upper troposphere above this EML in the vicinity of a subtle shortwave cresting the northern periphery of the western Europe ridge may be sufficient to generate some very high-based convection during the overnight period, and hence a low risk of a few lightning strikes. The risk (albeit very low) appears greatest in the northern half of the LOW threat area.

Edited July 17, 2022 by Sprites

[The Tall Weatherman]

Something to watch on Windy for us but like usual the Main cape is away from the extreme heat and gives energy to storms in the places that have not been hit hardest.

[AWD]

A somewhat more interesting, convective forecast for Wednesday from the 03z UKV model this morning.   Storms breaking out over SW England and the far west of Wales early hours Wednesday morning, spreading east through Wednesday afternoon to many places;

Edited July 17, 2022 by AWD