Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

[Cheshire Freeze]

We’re getting 44-45c modelled for the Sunday on this run. I can see it.

[Snowman.]

9am and high 30s 

 

In all seriousness that would insufferable.

[Man With Beard]

This is getting beyond a joke. Each run today has taken the previous insanity and made it even more insane. This 18Z run is not just 40Cs, it's mid 40s. It would be considered a heatwave by Iberian standards.

[Guest]

Speechless.

[Battleground Snow]

Very uncertain in 6 days. Foolish to write off anything past 144.  Iberian low off the  peninsula notoriously hard to model.

 

Edited July 9, 2022 by Battleground Snow

[Cheshire Freeze]

Risk of 40c as far N as Manchester on this run. Shocking.

A country crippler run

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, Steel City Skies said:

Speechless.

That really is boiling!

[Snowman.]

Is 40c at Midnight actually possible?

[sheikhy]

This is concerning now!!ecm i feel was too quick!come 12z tomorrow if both models are showing the same thing then we are on the verge of something serious!!!

[tight isobar]

18z upping the anti.. it’s a heat crippling run .... scorching heat advecting northward.. and some values.. that make the mind boggle

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

You know the next couple of clicks are going to be exciting when you see charts like this for 9am 

[Wold Topper]

19 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

It's amazing how meny newbies are on here ,You are all going to be dissapointed by computer models 

Are 'Newbies' not permitted? Surely learning by experience is the best way? Be that by disappointment, it is a learning curve after all, 

We all have to start somewhere  

 

[Mark wheeler]

3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

This is concerning now!!ecm i feel was too quick!come 12z tomorrow if both models are showing the same thing then we are on the verge of something serious!!!

Yep serious indeed , despite my light humoured post just now  I have been becoming increasingly concerned by this , its just not going away , I can't believe I am saying this but id prefer the Gem outcome .

Edited July 9, 2022 by Mark wheeler

[Singularity]

Just now, Snowman. said:

Is 40c at Midnight actually possible?

The max temp variable is actually the max of the preceding 6 hours (so probably at 6 pm in this case) - something that could do with being specified on these charts considering how often I’ve seen them misinterpreted.

Says something about the extremity of the airmass GFS is modelling that even as it’s on the way out on the Monday on this run, the noon temp is close to the record max here (33*C versus 34.3*C set in early Aug 1990). Or at least what would have been the record had it not been shattered the preceding day (this run has 39*C here in the Sunday… mind-blowing)!

[Lukesluckybunch]

6 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

Is 40c at Midnight actually po

 

5 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

This is concerning now!!ecm i feel was too quick!come 12z tomorrow if both models are showing the same thing then we are on the verge of something serious!!!

Concerning how,we have seen 40c close to before and 37c etc..it can't feel much different surely a few degrees?

Edited July 9, 2022 by Lukesluckybunch
Added wrong

[Snowman.]

1 minute ago, Singularity said:

The max temp variable is actually the max of the preceding 6 hours (so probably at 6 pm in this case) - something that could do with being specified on these charts considering how often I’ve seen them misinterpreted.

Says something about the extremity of the airmass GFS is modelling that even as it’s on the way out on the Monday on this run, the noon temp is close to the record max here (33*C versus 34.3*C set in early Aug 1990). Or at least what would have been the record had it not been shattered the preceding day (this run has 39*C here in the Sunday… mind-blowing)!

Right, so its not a snapshot of the temp at current time.

I imagine that meto 2m charts are actually at that time?

[Mark wheeler]

28c uppers scraping the south east . Oh boy . 

[tight isobar]

Just now, Mark wheeler said:

28c uppers scraping the south east . Oh boy . 

!!!- mid 40s.. this has to be taken seriously now perhaps not the absolute extremes- but by the way of persistence, the record looks a certainty to be gone within the 8/10 day period..And tbh .. I’d rather not think of what else may possibly be!!!!

[Snowman.]

14:00

Torched.

[sheikhy]

5 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

 

Concerning how,we have seen 40c close to before and 37c etc..it can't feel much different surely a few degrees?

As exciting as it is mate it is concerning!!!40 degreees is unreal for this part of the world!!every degree counts as well lol!!!mate forget 40 this now showing 42 or 43 degrees widely!!!it surely aint gona happen!!this is as extreme as it gets for our part of the world!!

[JayAlmeida]

15 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Risk of 40c as far N as Manchester on this run. Shocking.

A country crippler run

Yay we might finally get above 30c in the North.

Really can't see this happening if the GFS struggles with temp accuracy 5 days out.

The GFS 18z always seems to take that days trend and turn the volume up to 11

Edited July 9, 2022 by JayAlmeida

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

In my honest opinion i dont think this will verify.. Most certainly if the comments are true that the GFS problem of under-estimating max temps has been fixed then i think the GFS needs another looking at as its now over-estimating. Could these temps just be  "feels like" temps? Or maybe the GFS programming could been programmed and is now displaying the "feels like" estimates 

I mean 42C for York, Seriously??  and 40C for Manchester..... oh jesus come on?  Its a struggle to get 31C here never mind 40C.  

[Lukesluckybunch]

You can imagine On BBC weather talking next weekend,Sunday is going to be hot..with highs of 42c! haha that will sound strange

[Met4Cast]

8 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

 

Concerning how,we have seen 40c close to before and 37c etc..it can't feel much different surely a few degrees?

High temperatures have generally peaked on a single day and then cooled off in past events. This is concerning because not only is the GFS showing temperatures (widely) exceeding 40c, it shows an overnight low in the high 20's followed by yet another day of widespread 40c. 

We know that when temperatures exceed just 24c, heat related deaths increase. Prolonged intense heat like the GFS has been showing would be catastrophic. Very warm nights make it difficult to cool off, being hot puts pressure on the body and the heart and unfortunately in the case of the vulnerable, that leads to death. 

However unlikely the GFS is, the fact it has consistently showed this outcome & is seemingly upping the anti with each run is a concern. The model  has either gone completely bonkers, or it's onto something. This isn't simply a bit of "lovely hot weather". this would be a severe weather event.

Edited July 9, 2022 by Met4Cast

[JayAlmeida]

3 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

14:00

Torched.

The irony of your username juxtaposed next to this chart.