Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

i think the downgrades have begun... We are just exactly where we were two days ago, everythings being pushed back. Sunday looks to be now off the cards for record breaking  40C.. 

[mb018538]

20 minutes ago, WheresTheSnow said:

The last 2 or 3 GFS runs seem to have decreased this Fridays temperatures to around 23c from around 29/30c yesterday morning. I don’t have access to UKMO and ECM surface temps, does anyone know what they’re predicting for Friday? 

Friday afternoon on the 00z ECM shows around 26-27c in the SE. UKMO fairly similar. For many I feel it'll be a nice little break between the really hot stuff today and tomorrow and next weekend!

Edited July 11, 2022 by mb018538

[minus10]

5 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

M8, ive worked outside (  as a gardener) for 49 years, through the summers of 75, 76, 83, 95 etc... When the ground is dry and usually hard, a thunderstorms rain will just wash off, it wont penetrate and moisten the ground below a couple of mm ... For any useful rain to relieve the drought situation many places are in... we need more that one cherry picked predicted spell of rain - and IMHO the anomaly charts do not support that. For the 8 days that mean chart covers, suggesting that "There wont be much rain IF that Anomaly chart is accurate," is a perfectly reasonable statement to make.... whether it becomes reality or not is yet to be determined and cannot be disproven with one predicted cherry picked chart that covers only a few hours.

Now that is my reasoned opinion on what the Anomaly chart i posted suggests to me.... whether its accurate/im accurate or not remains to be seen, some might agree with me, some might not, but its pointless bickering about predictive charts in that timeframe.

 

I can vouch for that Mushy. Ground is rock hard now in many places and heavy rain from Thunderstorms (which i love) does not penetrate..what is needed is steady prolonged rain...which of course in summer unless it is at night people dont want for obvious reasons. Storms do fill up the waterbutts though. Models dont show much if any sustained rain presently.

Interesting you were a gardener for 49 years ! Credit to you for working in those heatwaves...when temp goes above 30 i stop working as just cant cope with it. Been doing it for 10 years now ...love it btw...anyway I digress...lets hope we can get some rain even if just storms...

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

We probably won't really know for sure until midweek. It's still 6 days off, which is ages away for something that needs to be so precise. Forecast accuracy drops markedly after 5 days.

And the peak of the heat keeps getting pushed back. Historically, extreme weather being pushed back by the models is never a good confidence indicator that it will verify at all.

[Scorcher]

11 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

i think the downgrades have begun... We are just exactly where we were two days ago, everythings being pushed back. Sunday looks to be now off the cards for record breaking  40C.. 

Downgrades? Give it a rest! What were you expecting- the 43C temps to just stay on every run until it actually happened? The GFS 06Z run is actually an upgrade for Manchester- 3 consecutive days of temps over 30C and probably breaking the local all-time record on Monday and Tuesday on this run!

If that's a downgrade then I'll take it!

[Man With Beard]

2 hours ago, bluearmy said:

Apologies - you’re right … I checked midnight on the 25th and it shows it at 18c with the plume seeming to be headed east - I should have checked  the remainder of the 25th more closely!  I had a recollection that it wasn’t ridiculously high but as your charts show it was probably around 22c in Cambridge so I’m completely wrong !

However I believe one of the previous records, from 1990 (37C), was set with 18C uppers?

[mushymanrob]

14 minutes ago, minus10 said:

I can vouch for that Mushy. Ground is rock hard now in many places and heavy rain from Thunderstorms (which i love) does not penetrate..what is needed is steady prolonged rain...which of course in summer unless it is at night people dont want for obvious reasons. Storms do fill up the waterbutts though. Models dont show much if any sustained rain presently.

Interesting you were a gardener for 49 years ! Credit to you for working in those heatwaves...when temp goes above 30 i stop working as just cant cope with it. Been doing it for 10 years now ...love it btw...anyway I digress...lets hope we can get some rain even if just storms...

Still am working.. i chose to... funny, back in the day we didnt have health n safety... we were contracted to work, so work we must... but 30c back in the 70's and 80's was uncommon. Since being self employed (since 90) i can dodge the hottest part of the day.

[Scorcher]

4 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

And the peak of the heat keeps getting pushed back. Historically, extreme weather being pushed back by the models is never a good confidence indicator that it will verify at all.

At least some heat is within the reliable time frame now- so it looks almost certain it will be 'hot' for the south at the weekend and probably for most of England, although the extreme heat is still up in the air.

[Man With Beard]

2 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

Well this post wont be popular, except perhaps on the heathaters thread! lol..

These charts suggest that after the heat event, next week returns to pretty much average. A moderate Westerly upper flow with only a slight anomaly over Southern areas. This suggests a mobile pattern, and not one with a lengthy spell of high pressure (or low) domination.

 

Although the lines are from the west, there's also a good positive anomaly, meaning heights are generally higher throughout our region, and therefore I'd expect the jet to be further north. Reasonable weather south (with a further potential plume/breakdown judging by the Biscay trough). More changeable further north.

[seb]

Well we have the first amber warning for extreme heat in history….

 

Edited July 11, 2022 by seb

[bluearmy]

8 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Downgrades? Give it a rest! What were you expecting- the 43C temps to just stay on every run until it actually happened? The GFS 06Z run is actually an upgrade for Manchester- 3 consecutive days of temps over 30C and probably breaking the local all-time record on Monday and Tuesday on this run!

If that's a downgrade then I'll take it!

I think that recent runs (let’s leave the 06z op until we get the 12z runs to back it up) have dragged the heat further north but reduced the ridiculous numbers in the south 

[Skullzrulerz]

2 minutes ago, seb said:

Well we have the first amber warning for extreme heat in history….

 

I don't recall seeing a warning like this before?

[Staffmoorlands]

2 minutes ago, seb said:

Well we have the first amber warning for extreme heat in history….

 

Amber warning along with a forecast of 27c here

[Scorcher]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I think that recent runs (let’s leave the 06z op until we get the 12z runs to back it up) have dragged the heat further north but reduced the ridiculous numbers in the south 

Yes which is probably better for all really- could be seen as an upgrade in fact, with much of England getting well into the 30s.

2 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

Amber warning along with a forecast of 27c here

I think you know that will go up a lot before Sunday. The BBC and Met Office had 25C here only a few days ago for today. We reached that by 11am this morning.

[Man With Beard]

Sorry I know it's not strictly model output but it does give credibility to model output - here's the Met Office wording:

Temperatures will build again later this week and over the coming weekend, likely peaking on Sunday and Monday. Some exceptionally high temperatures are possible and cumulative effects of warm nights and hot days are expected to bring widespread impacts to people and infrastructure. This period of hot weather is expected to continue into the early part of next week, hence an update extending this warning into Monday is likely.

I also see the warning is on the trajectory leading to a red warning - that must be where they are expecting this to go.

Wow.

[ShinyDave]

1 minute ago, Skullzrulerz said:

I don't recall seeing a warning like this before?

I think the Met Office only started incorporating heat warnings separate from the existing Heat Health Watch very recently. I definitely remember the first one was last July, my partner's mum went on a coach trip to Wales and was hoping to see us in Cardiff but I absolutely backed out because of the heat. Was that amber too? I forget.

[JayAlmeida]

Crazy times when a single day high of of 40c is considered a downgrade. GFS OPS didn't get anywhere near that temp yesterday on the 17th/18th.

Edited July 11, 2022 by JayAlmeida

[seb]

3 minutes ago, ShinyDave said:

I think the Met Office only started incorporating heat warnings separate from the existing Heat Health Watch very recently. I definitely remember the first one was last July, my partner's mum went on a coach trip to Wales and was hoping to see us in Cardiff but I absolutely backed out because of the heat. Was that amber too? I forget.

I stand corrected. The SW had the first ever amber extreme heat warning in July 2021 as you say. Heat warnings were added in June 2021.

Completely missed that.

Still, this one is one step from red which last year's wasn't so confidence must be high... especially a week out.

Edited July 11, 2022 by seb

[Alexis]

2 hours ago, Djdazzle said:

Don't forget though - the BBC will be using old data for their forecasts. This time yesterday, the record looked more likely to be broken. However, if the trend on the GFS 6z continues on the 12z runs, we may well be back in business.

Yes but they still look at the newest runs, like anyone can instantly do on their phone. If the latest run has done a U turn it's not difficult to cut out the record breaking segment. 

Edited July 11, 2022 by Alexis

[ShinyDave]

1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

Sorry I know it's not strictly model output but it does give credibility to model output - here's the Met Office wording:

Temperatures will build again later this week and over the coming weekend, likely peaking on Sunday and Monday. Some exceptionally high temperatures are possible and cumulative effects of warm nights and hot days are expected to bring widespread impacts to people and infrastructure. This period of hot weather is expected to continue into the early part of next week, hence an update extending this warning into Monday is likely.

I also see the warning is on the trajectory leading to a red warning - that must be where they are expecting this to go.

Wow.

And the explanatory article on the Met Office website announcing this warning has a quote that suggests the model consensus is at least tracking towards approaching the record even if smashing it doesn't happen:

Some models have been producing maximum temperatures in excess of 40C in parts of the UK over the coming weekend and beyond. At longer time scales temperature forecasts become less reliable, so whilst these figures can’t be ruled out, they are still only a low probability. A number of weather scenarios are still possible and at the current time, mid- or perhaps high-30s are looking more likely.

And that does track with comments on this thread where people have been talking about "downgrades" that are still highly relative.

[Brucie]

Don't often post in here - but read messages daily.

We really are facing an exceptional spell of weather, irrespective of whether the extreme temperatures materialise.  Charts are ominous also due to the ongoing lack of rain being forecast for much of England and Wales in particular.  IF we potentially have electrical 'rainless' storms next week like has been noted, wouldn't that run the real risk of grass / moorland fires given the tinder dry ground??

 

[Polaris]

Will the 12’s pair up to the 06z model and yesterday’s charts, keep a real possibility of 38.7c being beaten?
 

Meto amber extreme heat warning that has just been issued along with the continued media play out to the general public of potential record breaking heat is an eyebrow raiser for sure. 

Edited July 11, 2022 by Polaris

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, Brucie said:

Don't often post in here - but read messages daily.

We really are facing an exceptional spell of weather, irrespective of whether the extreme temperatures materialise.  Charts are ominous also due to the ongoing lack of rain being forecast for much of England and Wales in particular.  IF we potentially have electrical 'rainless' storms next week like has been noted, wouldn't that run the real risk of grass / moorland fires given the tinder dry ground??

Excellent point - I stand to be corrected if ‘rainless storms’ are less likely to produce as many CG strikes ??

[sheikhy]

With that heat warning  out maybe we should expect some extreme heat to be shown on the 12zs and notch up the levels again?!!met office seem pretty confident!!!!

[minus10]

12 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Sorry I know it's not strictly model output but it does give credibility to model output - here's the Met Office wording:

Temperatures will build again later this week and over the coming weekend, likely peaking on Sunday and Monday. Some exceptionally high temperatures are possible and cumulative effects of warm nights and hot days are expected to bring widespread impacts to people and infrastructure. This period of hot weather is expected to continue into the early part of next week, hence an update extending this warning into Monday is likely.

I also see the warning is on the trajectory leading to a red warning - that must be where they are expecting this to go.

Wow.

Yes, coming out 6 days in advance with amber warning must mean they are more than 50% confident of this or something like this happening now...must admit i didnt expect to see it this early...but given the models recently and the ens support for 20 + deg 850 and relative consistency of these runs i suppose they felt time was right ....