Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

[Battleground Snow]

The scatter has reduced markedly since the 06z, the models may have finally pinned down the solution 

[kold weather]

3 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

I expect the Met Office held fire on warnings after this mornings wobble!! If the ECM follows the model consensus tonight, and maybe more so tomorrow morning I think the level 4 action plan that we saw mentioned on Telegraph yesterday will be actioned!

Saying that maybe best to give it an extra day

My guess is they would want to see it actually come in in terms of time.

Notice in the last 48hrs we've shifted from a Sat-Sun event to a Mon-Tues event so its still sticking out at 120-144hrs range. I don't think you can have enough confidence that far out, especially in a set-up which has alot of moving parts that are very sensitive to even modest changes.

Monday may well be a record breaker for you guys, especially now the hot shot seems to be coming up from the SW to start before pivoting more due southerly.

[minus10]

This is quite an incredible chart from the ukmo..

Practically the whole of the uk within the 20 deg line...how often does that happen?

[MattStoke]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

The scatter has reduced markedly since the 06z, the models may have finally pinned down the solution 

That mean is about 2 degrees higher than this morning’s.

[Snowjokes92]

12 minutes ago, NTC said:

Maybe you need to hand in your Yorkshire passport and move elsewhere, Yorkshire people are full of grit and strength a few degrees more than 30 wouldn't phase a real Yorkshire man or woman.

Not really lol, but those sort of temperatures are unheard of here period. Especially for 2 to 3 days on trot. But even so would probably battle on

9 minutes ago, minus10 said:

This is quite an incredible chart from the ukmo..

Practically the whole of the uk within the 20 deg line...how often does that happen?

24 isothern over most of england and wales. Is 40c+ possible within that? 

Edited July 12, 2022 by Blessed Weather
Comment in quote box removed.

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, minus10 said:

This is quite an incredible chart from the ukmo..

Practically the whole of the uk within the 20 deg line...how often does that happen?

Yeah the UKMO is such an amazing looking chart at 850hpa.

20c in good sunshine should equal at least 35c, maybe a little more locally. 24c in good sunshine and your probably looking close to 40, again providing the flow is not from the north sea.

[minus10]

5 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

The scatter has reduced markedly since the 06z, the models may have finally pinned down the solution 

Yes....to keep going up by the look of it....

[minus10]

Gfs 12z still toying with heat close by in FI

Meanwhile looks like we could be in for some unexpected rain here ??

[seb]

17 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

I expect the Met Office held fire on warnings after this mornings wobble!! If the ECM follows the model consensus tonight, and maybe more so tomorrow morning I think the level 4 action plan that we saw mentioned on Telegraph yesterday will be actioned!

Saying that maybe best to give it an extra day

The MetO has no authority to issue a heat emergency. It’s the UKHSA that issues them following Cobra meetings with input from the MetO and a number of others.

But yes they would not issue the emergency until closer to the event. The MetO extreme heat warning already kicks into gear a huge amount of action.

[len]

15 minutes ago, minus10 said:

This is quite an incredible chart from the ukmo..

Practically the whole of the uk within the 20 deg line...how often does that happen?

Just a pic off a phone!
No info on run, time, date, source
????

[Frostbite80]

3 minutes ago, len said:

Just a pic off a phone!
No info on run, time, date, source
????

No disrespect mate but he has explained what the chart shows and the date will be early next week 

[richie3846]

I've been watching this thread for week with great interest, and want to say something here.

People shouldn't feel guilty or reluctant about indulging in the excitement of this potentially record breaking event. We all have people we care about, and indeed ourselves we may not want to actually suffer in the high temperatures, yet still want to indulge in the spectacle. 

It is possible to do both folks! Without guilt!! The models are exciting for sure, let's enjoy the moment AND also care for ourselves and others (oh and stop the bickering pleeeese?).

As a side note, watching the models, and people's analysis has been very interesting for me, as I am not as expert as some here, so thanks for the contributions. I've learned a lot the last couple weeks from this thread.

[kold weather]

Looking through the GFS ensembles and compared to the 12z suite yesterday they are a little cooler at the surface overall, though still blistering overall of course. More keep the heat longer however.

19 were above 37c (inc OP) at some point on the 12z suite yesterday. Today's number is 15, so with the OP run thats 16 out of 32, or half the runs getting that high. Less really extreme runs (40c+) though its got to be said, most top out at 37c.

 

[bluearmy]

The flow on ukmo is not from france but more sourced in Germany headed west and then nw across England 

Mogreps temps will be Informative latet 

[Derecho]

Decent uptick on the GFS ensembles (compared to the 06 and 00z suite) largely concentrating the peak of the plume into Monday and partly through Tuesday. A few absurd members in there but a record is within reach once again.

First time in a while we seem to have not had a pushback. Felt looking at things this morning it was heading towards a moderation of the heat but the 12z's have done another u-turn so far.

Tuesday's cloud and thunderstorm potential etc I wouldn't pay much attention to at this point, that won't get resolved until much closer to the time.

Some of the 00z GFS ens this morning were not getting hot at all really. Given the Met Office had gone amber, to see that backtrack in a big way meant there would have been a lot of flak, even though I agree with the issue of the warning based on the MOGREP ens.

Still a chance it could swing to less hot but I feel this evenings output is the first time in a while the uncertainty has decreased a bit (famous last words before the EC12z).

Edited July 12, 2022 by Quicksilver1989

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Some of the 00z GFS ens this morning were not getting hot at all really. Given the Met Office had gone amber, to see that backtrack in a big way meant there would have been a lot of flak, even though I agree with the issue of the warning based on the MOGREP ens.

Still a chance it could swing to less hot but I feel this evenings output is the first time in a while the uncertainty has decreased a bit (famous last words before the EC12z).

Whats interesting is the actual synoptic pattern is quite different from run to run in how they handle the high pressure and how quickly the upper low swings up. However most runs are still coming to the same conclusion of bringing through the heat anyways.

The cooler runs at the surface appear to be mainly because the upper low is more progressive and much cloud cover is allowed to spill in keeping things humid and hot, bit like today I'd guess.

[minus10]

15 minutes ago, len said:

Just a pic off a phone!
No info on run, time, date, source
????

Sorry....ukmo 12z for 2am Tuesday 19th...850 temps.

[Roger J Smith]

Also the 12z GFS timing and track for the (slight) breakdown late Tuesday is ideal for thunderstorm development in eastern England. In other words, whatever this could do will happen in England not further east as some ECM depictions might suggest.

My own odds for highest temperature would be:

35 or higher 85%

36 or higher 70%

37 or higher 55%

38 or higher 40%

39 or higher 25%

40 or higher 10%

The over-under is probably 37.5 or so. 

A theoretical location for best thunderstorm outcome would be Cambridge to Luton to Reading (but would not rule out Kent)

[Snowy L]

23 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The flow on ukmo is not from france but more sourced in Germany headed west and then nw across England 

Mogreps temps will be Informative latet 

Not sure about that, focusing on the isobars air sourced from Germany just about scrapes the East Coast, for most of the country it's coming from France. Focusing on the thickness we are getting a direct hit from North Africa, through Spain and France.

[bluearmy]

5 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Not sure about that, focusing on the isobars air sourced from Germany just about scrapes the East Coast, for most of the country it's coming from France. Focusing on the thickness we are getting a direct hit from North Africa, through Spain and France.

Should have been more clear re surface flow - Tues pm follows similar pattern for previous 36 hours 

 

[kold weather]

5 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Not sure about that, focusing on the isobars air sourced from Germany just about scrapes the East Coast, for most of the country it's coming from France. Focusing on the thickness we are getting a direct hit from North Africa, through Spain and France.

Surface flow looks like its through Germany, into the low countries/France and across to the UK. 850hpa airflow looks like its sourced from France. In reality it probably won't make all that much difference providing out winds don't gain too much of a easterly airflow

[Weather-history]

What are the chances of a thundery breakdown?

[kold weather]

13 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

Also the 12z GFS timing and track for the (slight) breakdown late Tuesday is ideal for thunderstorm development in eastern England. In other words, whatever this could do will happen in England not further east as some ECM depictions might suggest.

My own odds for highest temperature would be:

35 or higher 85%

36 or higher 70%

37 or higher 55%

38 or higher 40%

39 or higher 25%

40 or higher 10%

The over-under is probably 37.5 or so. 

A theoretical location for best thunderstorm outcome would be Cambridge to Luton to Reading (but would not rule out Kent)

Just to let you know todays GFS ensembles/OP/control have 16 out of 32 runs reach 37c, so that also kinda backs up your mean position as well. The average is lower due to a few much cooler runs at the surface due to the LP placement being too close before the heat really embeds. 

[hotsummer]

Hi all, 

I always just observe but when we get spells of extremes my interest goes up. This, the beast from the east, the storm this year winter. But this spell has helped me learn a bit about the models. I tend to pick up more during such spells than the benign sort of weather - things are highlighted. Plus there’s way more commentary. 

Anyway, where I struggle to read the model outlook is how the GFS seems to to be so poor at times. But it’s also been useful. So for this upcoming potential it was showing times of 40c + yet reality will be a bit of a divergence. Not only that but Tues seems to suggest a difference between SE and further North. Showers/cloud it seems coming in? Tues could see a record but towards Lincs…no?
 
The hottest point seems to push back, could we end up with it pushed back again and gain but then curtailed due to ‘unfavourable’  conditions for this ‘extreme’ heat? I guess the next day or so starts to firm up. 

Anyway, I can’t say I’ve ever seen the GFS like this. I know it wasn’t a strong consensus but it was persistent and that was in my view suggesting something. 

So, beyond this heat it seems a cool down (but above average) before a reload albeit less hot. I almost get the sense that the more intense the heat the cooler it may be after…

Cheers  

 

[qwertyK]

A little bit of much needed rain here