Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

[ribster]

12 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

I'm looking beyond the projected intense heat, indications where we may be heading latter part of July. Always good to look at the jetstream profile forecasts for a broad indication of likely direction of travel. Whilst these often fluctuate at long timeframes 7 days plus, they can be a good barometer for general expected conditions, i.e. will we be locked on the warm side of the jet or not, where is energy transferring to, the northern arm, is there a split flow on the way, how zonal may it be etc..

Looking at the immediate future you can see the cut off low feature and weak southern arm languishing off Portugal going nowhere with a weak jet riding to the north of the UK, by mid week next week, the low has moved north into the UK, and a slow transition then takes place with a much more invigorated jet taking a crash course for the UK, and eventually we go on the colder side, indeed looks quite a typical flow, ridge and trough pattern and atlantic dominated. Traditionally the jet moves into gear later July, mind since Dec 2020 it really has been a weak entity. My guess is the azores high will remain a strong feature but much further west, more of a mid atlantic high allowing frontal systems to move in from the NW from time to time, and these will have more gusto about them than recently, ties in with La Nina base state for second half of summer.

Might it be a good time to create a focus on the shorter term - heatwave thread, and allow this one to go back to longer range model watching, I fear it is fast becoming lets show charts showing most intense heat, and broader picture and longer term forecast watching not really being given much attention.

Amen to that, thank-you.

[Man With Beard]

17 minutes ago, hotsummer said:

This brings me onto another thought. Further pushbacks then meaning higher uppers come at the wrong time and it all falls short? All finely balanced indeed 

Oh absolutely could, but the ECM ensembles tonight definitely give me the feeling this is not going to happen. I'd give them a 75% chance of landing now.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

42 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

No consensus yet

and models are poor at picking up convective thorms at range of more than a few days.  Fwiw, the eps mean precip total by next Thursday is 5mm in your region. 

Cheers.

[Man With Beard]

29 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Ok im not courting popularity here... and im a John Holmes convert... but this chart has (since the last post two days ago) suggests that high pressure will diminish, weaken, in a moderate Westerly upper flow. There is slight troughing over the UK with a hint of a possible return of a mid Atlantic ridge.

Now heat haters will welcome this pretty average (not bad) conditions. But these charts are consistent in not supporting a strong high pressure over/near us.

That is my assessment on this chart... it might be accurate, it might not.. lets wait and see eh?..

Bit more westerly flow here, not great for Scotland, but heights still a little raised above normal and of course July on a westerly flow can be quite different to January. And it's still hinting at a Biscay low, could be plumetastic once again

[Singularity]

EPS have raised an eyebrow as I dare to contemplate the later stages of July for a moment. Just one cluster, usually meaning huge spread when at 11-15 days range, yet it manages to somewhat resemble another case of a cut-off low leading to a big heat build over France & potentially the UK.

I know where @Tamara & @Man With Beard are coming from regarding potential for a pattern repeat (but not precisely, of course).

Sitting here in a near 30°C room at gone 10 pm with many more heatwave days in the outlook, I'm not best pleased by that signal to be honest, even though it's at low confidence.

[pages]

Shame icon 18z only goes out to 120hr. It looks like it may keep the low to west of Portugal in situ or significantly slow down its push north.

1st run I seen that phases the low with the lower pressure over north Africa/western med

Doesn't make any difference to the uppers over UK on Sunday. But starts to intensify the heat over Spain and couple of frames further on I would expect a straight draw from Africa to us. Tuesday would be record breaking again and maybe prolongs the heat.

[Jeztec]

45 minutes ago, ribster said:

Amen to that, thank-you.

Its does look like there's going to be a dip in temps from the 23rd onward!

Edited July 12, 2022 by Jeztec

[Earthshine]

ECMWF suggesting a cooler outlook end of July but remains keen on something rather summery as we head into August.  Long way off of course but interesting that the signal for high pressure centred to the south east of the UK is still there

[bluearmy]

15 minutes ago, Singularity said:

EPS have raised an eyebrow as I dare to contemplate the later stages of July for a moment. Just one cluster, usually meaning huge spread when at 11-15 days range, yet it manages to somewhat resemble another case of a cut-off low leading to a big heat build over France & potentially the UK.

I know where @Tamara & @Man With Beard are coming from regarding potential for a pattern repeat (but not precisely, of course).

Sitting here in a near 30°C room at gone 10 pm with many more heatwave days in the outlook, I'm not best pleased by that signal to be honest, even though it's at low confidence.

that day 15 cluster with a stonking high anomoly west of scandi whilst the mean shows a low one ………

Edited July 12, 2022 by bluearmy

[Allseasons-Si]

42 minutes ago, Singularity said:

EPS have raised an eyebrow as I dare to contemplate the later stages of July for a moment. Just one cluster, usually meaning huge spread when at 11-15 days range, yet it manages to somewhat resemble another case of a cut-off low leading to a big heat build over France & potentially the UK.

I know where @Tamara & @Man With Beard are coming from regarding potential for a pattern repeat (but not precisely, of course).

Sitting here in a near 30°C room at gone 10 pm with many more heatwave days in the outlook, I'm not best pleased by that signal to be honest, even though it's at low confidence.

Was just about to post these but you beat me to it @Singularity(been watching manu v's L'pool) a good friendly game and yes i support manu

as i stated earlier on the 00z EPS that the Azores hp cell might ridge in on the ext'd towards the UK,this gives credence or should i say more confidence as this is two runs on the bounce that this scenario might happen,a long way to go though as we still don't know how this heat low in Iberia will act within the northern arm of the jet,a couple of hurdles to get past i would say,one being will the heat low travel NE towards Scandinavia or tradject SE towards mainland Europe,the latter would push heights over the top of the heat low sending it towards the med helping the Azores ridge in faster towards the uk keeping the heat low south of the jet resulting in a warmer period  of temps from the E/SE,the former would be a slower build of of heights from the SW thanks to the heat low engaging the northern arm of the jet north of the UK resulting in a more W/NW flow

the slower the phasing with the northern arm of the jet the better in my eyes in terms of keeping the UK south side of unsettled,yes these temps keep getting pushed back a day or two but this is a good sign that things arn't getting blown away to unsettled

have a good evening all,...i have

well done Man U

P.S,...where is Karl @jon snow,hope you are OK mate.

 

Edited July 12, 2022 by Allseasons-si
typo

[MP-R]

29 minutes ago, Jeztec said:

Its does look like there's going to be a dip in temps from the 23rd onward!

Of course there is... it’s the next outdoor event I have planned since the last one I had to change due to rain on 2nd July  

More positively though, not a lot of frontal rain on offer after the (yet to be resolved) breakdown. Either showery or N/S split looks more likely. Lots to happen before then though.

[Mark wheeler]

Icon 18z run is poised once more .

 

[Lincs Observation]

Here in Lincolnshire it almost feels like the summer of 76 with no meaning ful rain in weeks and near stable low to mid twenties in temps. If my memory serves me at all that year the top temps were low 30’s. This time it’s 76 on steriods

LO

[Mark wheeler]

Gfs slightly slower than 12z run  , its coming though .

Edited July 12, 2022 by Mark wheeler

[Wold Topper]

21 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Was just about to post these but you beat me to it @Singularity(been watching manu v's L'pool) a good friendly game and yes i support manu

as i stated earlier on the 00z EPS that the Azores hp cell might ridge in on the ext'd towards the UK,this gives credence or should i say more confidence as this is two runs on the bounce that this scenario might happen,a long way to go though as we still don't know how this heat low in Iberia will act within the northern arm of the jet,a couple of hurdles to get past i would say,one being will the heat low travel NE towards Scandinavia or tradject SE towards mainland Europe,the latter would push heights over the top of the heat low sending it towards the med helping the Azores ridge in faster towards the uk keeping the heat low south of the jet resulting in a warmer period  of temps from the E/SE,the former would be a slower build of of heights from the SW thanks to the heat low engaging the northern arm of the jet north of the UK resulting in a more W/NW flow

the slower the phasing with the northern arm of the jet the better in my eyes in terms of keeping the UK south side of unsettled,yes these temps keep getting pushed back a day or two but this is a good sign that things arn't getting blown away to unsettled

have a good evening all,...i have

well done Man U

P.S,...where is Karl @jon snow,hope you are OK mate.

 

As a reader, (learning?) not a poster! because i don't understand alot of this, but where is @JonSnow, & @tight isobar  and @MATTWOLVES

Edited July 12, 2022 by Wold Topper

[kold weather]

Gfs faster moving the Iberian low through, so less extensive heat on Tuesday but still very hot, particularly for the east of England.

[Don]

11 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Well, that tweet as done nothing to cheer me up!! 

[Lincs Observation]

3 minutes ago, Don said:

Well, that tweet as done nothing to cheer me up!! 

If that scenario plays out it could mean real trouble for the east, on look north tonight reports of the reservoirs in Yorkshire are dangerously low and even talk of a water shortage very soon. It could be feasible restrictions could be in place within weeks.LO

[Staffmoorlands]

GFS 18z suggests a cloudy Tuesday now and slightly less heat but still hot

33-34c tops

Edited July 12, 2022 by Staffmoorlands

[sheikhy]

3 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

GFS 18z suggests a cloudy Tuesday now and slightly less heat but still hot

Are we looking at the same charts mate!!latest 18z out and it has clear skies and very hot for most of the day!!very similar to the 12z!!

[Mapantz]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Are we looking at the same charts mate!!latest 18z out and it has clear skies and very hot for most of the day!!very similar to the 12z!!

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

Must be very high cloud then as temps get to mid thirties!!!

[Mark wheeler]

10 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Must be very high cloud then as temps get to mid thirties!!!

No cloud at all for @Staffmoorlands location.

[Mark wheeler]

Wowzers . 

[Captain Shortwave]

GFS - Sunday 32c, Monday 36c, Tuesday 38c (Possibly 39c). Thundery breakdown on Wednesday but rainfall only for the south that sweeps through pretty swiftly with fine weather returning for Thursday.

 

The UKMO at day 6 (Tuesday morning) doesn’t look like the breakdown will occur until late that day or  into Wednesday too, so it is probably similar to the GFS.

Edited July 13, 2022 by Captain Shortwave