Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

[MattStoke]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

Icon pushing the plume thru much faster on Tuesday... Quite a big change from its 00z run

It was extremely slow on the last run, so not surprising to see it move closer to the other models.

[richie3846]

2 hours ago, Marcus_surfer said:

Monday night looks to be the warmest on record...its showing lows of 24c for quite a few spots.

I don't personally believe the night record will go even with these extreme models. August holds the night record, coastal location, sea temps a massive factor there. The sea isn't at peak heat yet, I just don't see it's possible to break this record very easily at all in July. 

[Captain Shortwave]

1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

It was extremely slow on the last run, so not surprising to see it move closer to the other models.

It is approaching the point where we lose the highest heat on Tuesday. The 20c is clearing the east coast during the evening so just about okay. On the flip side Monday is hotter and the very hot temperatures (35c+) are pushing further north.

[Liam Burge]

1 minute ago, richie3846 said:

I don't personally believe the night record will go even with these extreme models. August holds the night record, coastal location, sea temps a massive factor there. The sea isn't at peak heat yet, I just don't see it's possible to break this record very easily at all in July. 

The ensembles sure do want to break that record by quite a large margin.

[mb018538]

1 minute ago, Captain Shortwave said:

It is approaching the point where we lose the highest heat on Tuesday. The 20c is clearing the east coast during the evening so just about okay. On the flip side Monday is hotter and the very hot temperatures (35c+) are pushing further north.

It's right on the edge on the 6z run. Ideally you'd want that 12z chart to be at 15z. The peak 850s are at 00z-09z, and declining after this. 00z run was a lot better in this regard - though shifts of a few hours here and there are to be expected at a lead time of 4 days. We're not going to get ultimate precision until maybe a day before.

[eastangliawx]

15 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

It was extremely slow on the last run, so not surprising to see it move closer to the other models.

Icon still ends up with a 40c in there on Tuesday, but the cut off low is more north east than the other models this run while it was the other way round previously. In my opinion, I think we will end up with a middle ground with the cold front moving across the country Tuesday late afternoon not reaching eastern areas till the late evening . Probably similar to what ukmo shows

Most importantly aswell i haven't seen any model show the heat leaving the east before midday yet

Edited July 15, 2022 by eastangliawx

[ShinyDave]

3 minutes ago, Liam Burge said:

The ensembles sure do want to break that record by quite a large margin.

 

That is indeed some way past the record minimum. Literally only one run - which has the cooler air pushing in way ahead of any of the others - doesn't have a >20C "tropical night" minimum for London. Even the other low-end runs do!

Sea temperature influence mentioned as a factor for the minima coming later; how much of that is offset by there being more daylight and hence less nocturnal cooling time in July? And that minimum record was set on 3 August 1990, which is: a) very early in August; b) the same day as the then-record maximum. So I don't see why a historically hot spell in the third week of July shouldn't be capable of producing record minima.

[MattStoke]

Red heatwave warning issued.

[Sidsnake]

Just now, MattStoke said:

Red heatwave warning issued.

Where is that Matt, just so I can look?

[MattStoke]

Met Office site. Can't paste the link for some reason.

Edited July 15, 2022 by MattStoke

[JayAlmeida]

32 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Looks that way on the day 10-15 ECM cluster this morning too - and was always the likely outcome once this broke down.

What I'm more interested in is all of the longer range models producing warm/hot temperature forecasts for W/NW Europe in August:



Nor particularly what I'd expect, though the latest MetO update goes for high pressure in the south into the start of August, with the potential for heat 

Saw Gavsweathervids long range JMA Update last night and it had a HP dominated August so fingers crossed.

Really can't be doing with a typical British August like last year.

Edited July 15, 2022 by JayAlmeida

[Sidsnake]

1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

Met Office site. Can't paste the link for some reason.

Thank you...

[Liam Burge]

First ever RED extreme heat warning issued. Insane that the whole of England, Wales and some of Scotland is now included in some form of extreme heat warning.

"Exceptional, perhaps record-breaking, temperatures are likely on Monday, then again on Tuesday."

[sheikhy]

Much quicker icon!!ecm probably on the money now!!expect next couple of gfs runs to shift toward ecm!!!

[Battleground Snow]

Randomly, they have drawn an odd patch, when the areas left out will be pushing 40 according to the models

[Skullzrulerz]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Much quicker icon!!ecm probably on the money now!!expect next couple of gfs runs to shift toward ecm!!!

What do you mean? The heat being brought in quicker or the cold air mass?

[kold weather]

A quicker icon again, the model suite as a whole have been shifting back and forth on Tuesday, still something to keep an eye on as even subtle changes will be the difference between a max of 33-35c at midday or a 40-42c at 3-4pm.

[JayAlmeida]

2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Randomly, they have drawn an odd patch, when the areas left out will be pushing 40 according to the models

Looks familiar to me and an indicator for Tuesday evenings weather perhaps...

[sheikhy]

8 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

What do you mean? The heat being brought in quicker or the cold air mass?

Yeh and heat getting pushed away quicker as well!but just as i say that the gfs 06z run looks even slower with the low at 60 hours than its 00z run which is better if you want a slow clearance of heat!!!

[andy989]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Yeh and heat getting pushed away quicker as well!but just as i say that the gfs 06z run looks even slower with the low at 60 hours than its 00z run which is better if you want a slow clearance of heat!!!

I suspect it won’t be the quicker option given the meto has just done a red warning? 

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Yeh and heat getting pushed away quicker as well!but just as i say that the gfs 06z run looks even slower with the low at 60 hours than its 00z run which is better if you want a slow clearance of heat!!!

The ECM was one of the quicker runs with how rapidly the temps drop, though that might be due yo better resolution able to get a stronger definition on the front.

Thumbing through the ECM ensembles though most remain exceptionally hot in the red zone. A bit more iffy S/W of that zone, though even here most are well into the low to mid 30s maxes before a rapid drop begins.

Not to say the front can't speed up, it wouldn't be the first time. However for now enough of the zone looks good enough that the 40c option is still very much much in the red zone for Tuesday imo.

[sheikhy]

Actually now looks to have joined ecm with a quicker push east at 84 hours!!maybe a bit better than ecm!

[Djdazzle]

Even the quicker ICON will give a 40+ day on Tuesday.

And, it's the ICON . . . 

Just now, sheikhy said:

Actually now looks to have joined ecm with a quicker push east at 84 hours!!maybe a bit better than ecm!

You are hanging on to every tiny inter-run variation! It's not good for your health . . .

[Summer Sun]

40c in the south on Monday on 06z GFS mid 30s extending up to Yorkshire

[tight isobar]

The 6z playing with the isotherma instructor.. but 40+ it is .. just minimal dynamics to be resolved!!!