Autumn 2022 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[Don]

23 hours ago, East Lancs Rain said:

What’s a Bartlett winter? A mild and wet winter would be ideal to refill the reservoirs and to ease the burden on our wallets. The ideal winter (for me anyway) this year would be to have a repeat of December 2015, January 2007 and February 2019! It would be record breakingly  mild, and the excessive rain that the north would get during December would very quickly put an end to the drought situation! ️

A Bartlett winter is one dominated by a Bartlett high where high pressure sets up over France and Spain, bathing much of the UK in mild and dry south westerlies, albeit Scotland can be wet .  This dominated much of winter 1988/89 and also February 1998 where temperatures almost reached 20C in Greenwich London on the 14th.

Although we ideally need a wetter than average winter to end the drought, a 2013/14 repeat would not be good as the last thing people need now is their homes to be flooded too!

I agree a severe winter would be bad news but as a weather enthusiast who likes snow, I do not want a record breaking mild snowless winter and something akin to 2000/01 or 2020/21 would do me as those winters were not mild but neither were they particularly cold and probably wouldn't be too impactful given the circumstances we are faced with.

As I've already said recently, if this coming winter and spring are particularly dry and the country is left with a severe drought issue, will hot summer lovers want a washout of a summer next year?!

[East Lancs Rain]

On 07/10/2022 at 23:49, Don said:

A Bartlett winter is one dominated by a Bartlett high where high pressure sets up over France and Spain, bathing much of the UK in mild and dry south westerlies, albeit Scotland can be wet .  This dominated much of winter 1988/89 and also February 1998 where temperatures almost reached 20C in Greenwich London on the 14th.

Although we ideally need a wetter than average winter to end the drought, a 2013/14 repeat would not be good as the last thing people need now is their homes to be flooded too!

I agree a severe winter would be bad news but as a weather enthusiast who likes snow, I do not want a record breaking mild snowless winter and something akin to 2000/01 or 2020/21 would do me as those winters were not mild but neither were they particularly cold and probably wouldn't be too impactful given the circumstances we are faced with.

As I've already said recently, if this coming winter and spring are particularly dry and the country is left with a severe drought issue, will hot summer lovers want a washout of a summer next year?!

Thanks for explaning. I think Winter 2018/19 would count as a bartlett winter then as that was dominated by high pressure to the south but also ridging over the UK, it was very mild, record breakingly so in February 2019 but also quite dry. It actually felt milder to me than Winter 2019/20 as although that winter was very mild temperature wise, the constant wind and rain made it feel colder. The only cold weather that winter was in the second half of January. I also remember one night in early February when the temperature dropped to about -7C.

 

I would ideally like a repeat of Winter 2018/19. December was very mild but also wet at times, so would give some useful rainfall, and that February felt more like the middle of Spring. It felt quite surreal actually. But it would be awesome to get a February like that in the middle of an energy crisis. November 2018 was pleasant too, dry, mild and sunny.

 

I suspect the coming winter will probably be mild because of the strong westerly QBO this year.

 

We are well overdue a washout summer, last one was in 2012, it will only be a matter of time until the next one...

[East Lancs Rain]

Not a bad weekend here. Stayed dry with plenty of sunshine and temperatures have been fairly mild for the time of year around 14 celcius. It's gone cloudy now though, with rain forecast tongiht.

Edited October 9, 2022 by East Lancs Rain

[Sunny76]

On 07/10/2022 at 00:06, East Lancs Rain said:

Hope not!!! That will not be good for either the drought or the energy situation. A mild, wet end to the year is what’s needed. Could do with another Nov and Dec 2015 combo..

Send it over here!

What’s a Bartlett winter? A mild and wet winter would be ideal to refill the reservoirs and to ease the burden on our wallets. The ideal winter (for me anyway) this year would be to have a repeat of December 2015, January 2007 and February 2019! It would be record breakingly  mild, and the excessive rain that the north would get during December would very quickly put an end to the drought situation! ️

 

Yes of course energy bills will be expensive no matter what happens, as we will still need to put the lights on at 4/5 pm, however the milder it is the less heating will be needed and therefore more money saved. Whether it’s damp or not won’t make a difference to indoor temperature (a bit of winter sun can warm up south facing rooms during the middle of the day though.)

I seem to remember heavy snow just before Xmas eve that year. Traffic was so bad took me about 45 mins to get home on the bus for what would normally be a 5 minute trip.

Let’s wish for a very mild winter.

[Don]

30 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

Let’s wish for a very mild winter.

If we have a very dry winter and spring, lets wish for a very wet washout summer next year! 

Edited October 10, 2022 by Don

[stainesbloke]

1 hour ago, Don said:

If we have a very dry winter and spring, lets wish for a very wet washout summer next year! 

No point to that though, as effective, replenishing rain occurs in the colder months generally. A washout summer is just an irritation 

[SunSean]

3rd day in a row of almost unbroken sunshine with another forecast for tomorrow! Best period in October i can remember and its reminding me a bit like a revisit of March 2022!

[stainesbloke]

3 minutes ago, SunSean said:

3rd day in a row of almost unbroken sunshine with another forecast for tomorrow! Best period in October i can remember and its reminding me a bit like a revisit of March 2022!

Yes, been in the UK a lot for work and it’s been beautiful  

[Sunny76]

31 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

No point to that though, as effective, replenishing rain occurs in the colder months generally. A washout summer is just an irritation 

Yeah a wet summer is a waste of time. More water evaporates quickly, even in a wet summer, compared to rainfall between October and April.

Nobody wants another 2012 summer.

[reef]

A warm, dry and sunny first 10 days of October here. We've already seen 63 hours of sunshine (108hrs is the average for the entire month), 10.8mm of rain and are running at a mean of 12.8C.

2022 has seen 1719 hours of sunshine here so far. The record is 1842 hours in 2003 - a figure we'll beat even if the rest of the year has less than 75% of normal sunshine.

As for rainfall. We need another 163mm for this year not to be the driest on record! We've only had 291mm so far.

[Don]

42 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

No point to that though, as effective, replenishing rain occurs in the colder months generally. A washout summer is just an irritation 

 

10 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

Yeah a wet summer is a waste of time. More water evaporates quickly, even in a wet summer, compared to rainfall between October and April.

Nobody wants another 2012 summer.

Hmm, not sure a wet summer would be completely pointless if the country was in dire need of rainfall and those reasons sound a bit convenient to me!  However, I won't say anymore on the matter! 

Edited October 10, 2022 by Don

[Greyhound81]

One thing that I have noticed since I started taking an interest in the weather and climate, is that April seems to have had more days with a maximum temperature of over 20 degrees (historically) than October despite being a colder month.  April seems to have more extremes of hot and cold than what October does. 

Another thing I have noticed is that spring seems to feel warmer than the autumn.  19 degrees in March feels warmer than 19 degrees in September.  Is it to do with the strength of the sun?

 

[Snowy L]

3 minutes ago, Greyhound81 said:

One thing that I have noticed since I started taking an interest in the weather and climate, is that April seems to have had more days with a maximum temperature of over 20 degrees (historically) than October despite being a colder month.  April seems to have more extremes of hot and cold than what October does. 

Another thing I have noticed is that spring seems to feel warmer than the autumn.  19 degrees in March feels warmer than 19 degrees in September.  Is it to do with the strength of the sun?

 

The 2 months are equinox months so I don't think sun strength would be too different. I think it's because by September you have just gone through 3 months of temperatures mostly in the twenties while in March you have gone through 3 months of temperatures of 10C or less.

[Frost HoIIow]

6 minutes ago, Greyhound81 said:

One thing that I have noticed since I started taking an interest in the weather and climate, is that April seems to have had more days with a maximum temperature of over 20 degrees (historically) than October despite being a colder month.  April seems to have more extremes of hot and cold than what October does. 

Another thing I have noticed is that spring seems to feel warmer than the autumn.  19 degrees in March feels warmer than 19 degrees in September.  Is it to do with the strength of the sun?

 

Funnily enough I find it's the opposite for me. If I wear a winter coat anytime through September and October I tend to take it off most years as I get too warm as temps tend to be well into double figures even under cloud, once into November though and this isn't an issue as we can start to get some genuinely cold days. I can a winter coat in Spring right through April and feel ok, especially if it's a chilly month. May though and the sun definitely gets too strong to wear winter gear and by then single figure max temps become rare anyway but not unheard of.

[Weather Enthusiast91]

1 hour ago, Greyhound81 said:

One thing that I have noticed since I started taking an interest in the weather and climate, is that April seems to have had more days with a maximum temperature of over 20 degrees (historically) than October despite being a colder month.  April seems to have more extremes of hot and cold than what October does. 

Another thing I have noticed is that spring seems to feel warmer than the autumn.  19 degrees in March feels warmer than 19 degrees in September.  Is it to do with the strength of the sun?

 

I think it's more to do with our perception. After weeks on end of temps around 12 Celsius or below, experiencing days with a high temp of 19 Celsius is going to feel very warm in comparison. Likewise, after experiencing temps of 21+ Celsius for weeks on end, 19 Celsius is going to feel relatively cool.

[MP-R]

1 hour ago, Greyhound81 said:

One thing that I have noticed since I started taking an interest in the weather and climate, is that April seems to have had more days with a maximum temperature of over 20 degrees (historically) than October despite being a colder month.  April seems to have more extremes of hot and cold than what October does. 

Another thing I have noticed is that spring seems to feel warmer than the autumn.  19 degrees in March feels warmer than 19 degrees in September.  Is it to do with the strength of the sun?

 

April has greater temperature variation potential due to sun strength comparable to August and SSTs just past their coldest.

Traditionally April does tend to offer a lot more synoptic variability than October although in many an instance they can be as repetitive or varied as each other.

[Greyhound81]

2 hours ago, MP-R said:

April has greater temperature variation potential due to sun strength comparable to August and SSTs just past their coldest.

Traditionally April does tend to offer a lot more synoptic variability than October although in many an instance they can be as repetitive or varied as each other.

Does March also have greater temperature variation potential than what November does?  March also has had more days above 20 degrees historically than November, despite being a colder month in general. 

[Turnedoutniceagain]

+1.6c and I'm scraping the car windscreen

[markyo]

Fantastic Autumns morning, just above freezing, beautiful sunrise....near enough perfect.

[mb018538]

9 hours ago, Greyhound81 said:

One thing that I have noticed since I started taking an interest in the weather and climate, is that April seems to have had more days with a maximum temperature of over 20 degrees (historically) than October despite being a colder month.  April seems to have more extremes of hot and cold than what October does. 

Another thing I have noticed is that spring seems to feel warmer than the autumn.  19 degrees in March feels warmer than 19 degrees in September.  Is it to do with the strength of the sun?

 

That would be right. It's probably due to October often being more mobile than April, which could limit the potential for reaching above 20c.

Also - by the end of April (in London for example), the day length is nearly 15 hours. The longest day on the first of October is 11h 36m, dropping to 9h 40m by the end. April just probably feels better as it averages more sunshine per month due to the much longer daylight hours. It would be warmer than October like for like, but the big deciding factor is SSTs. They are some 5-7c higher in October than April, which makes a huge difference.

[CJS_25]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

That would be right. It's probably due to October often being more mobile than April, which could limit the potential for reaching above 20c.

Also - by the end of April (in London for example), the day length is nearly 15 hours. The longest day on the first of October is 11h 36m, dropping to 9h 40m by the end. April just probably feels better as it averages more sunshine per month due to the much longer daylight hours. It would be warmer than October like for like, but the big deciding factor is SSTs. They are some 5-7c higher in October than April, which makes a huge difference.

Also, the sun is significantly stronger in April (starting on 43 degrees above horizon at midday on 1st in London and ending at 53 by 30th), whereas the October sun is relatively weak (35 deg on 1st and only 24 degrees by midday on 31st).  October sun is equivalent to late February and early March sun.  The stronger sun in April gives a perception of it being warmer, even if the air is colder.  Also the reason why 20 in April may feel warmer than 20 in Sep/Oct.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

2 hours ago, markyo said:

Fantastic Autumns morning, just above freezing, beautiful sunrise....near enough perfect.

Not near. They are perfect!

[MP-R]

9 hours ago, Greyhound81 said:

Does March also have greater temperature variation potential than what November does?  March also has had more days above 20 degrees historically than November, despite being a colder month in general. 

Exactly… and for essentially the same reasons. November is probably the most monotone month for temperatures in the whole year unless you get a freak cold spell like 2010. March on the other hand… just compare 2012 with 2013.

[Sunny76]

19 hours ago, Don said:

 

Hmm, not sure a wet summer would be completely pointless if the country was in dire need of rainfall and those reasons sound a bit convenient to me!  However, I won't say anymore on the matter! 

A wet summer hampers outdoor activities and the chance to enjoy the outdoors.

I know there’s an argument for needing the rain, but people don’t want a poor summer. 

[LetItSnow!]

12 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

A wet summer hampers outdoor activities and the chance to enjoy the outdoors.

I know there’s an argument for needing the rain, but people don’t want a poor summer. 

All a pointless argument from all sides anyway as the planet will do what she pleases regardless of our opinions and desires