Autumn 2022 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[damianslaw]

Just now, Mapantz said:

Don't forget, they don't just name low pressures due to wind speeds, but also rain/snow.

Oh ok, has there been any storms for rain yet. Not had many weather warnings so far this Autumn. 

[Mapantz]

Just now, damianslaw said:

Oh ok, has there been any storms for rain yet. Not had many weather warnings so far this Autumn. 

Not for rain, yet. Storm Claudio was named by Meteo France, that brought some quite destructive winds for down here. If it had developed slightly further north and west, it would probably have been our first named storm.

There's been about 5 or 6 warnings down here. Rain is slowly becoming the issue now, plenty of flood alerts and warnings starting to appear.

[damianslaw]

3 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Not for rain, yet. Storm Claudio was named by Meteo France, that brought some quite destructive winds for down here. If it had developed slightly further north and west, it would probably have been our first named storm.

There's been about 5 or 6 warnings down here. Rain is slowly becoming the issue now, plenty of flood alerts and warnings starting to appear.

Yes so far we've been spared flooding this Autumn, but suspect won't take much from hereon to give localised flooding. Next 48 hrs are looking wet. 

[Sceptical]

Cairngorm looking suspiciously white.

 

[JoeShmoe]

I don’t mind a wet spell of weather coming up, having seen the state of the rivers and resivoirs this summer and just how bone dry everything was I think some refilling of the aquifers and ground water is much needed 

[Azazel]

This weather is revolting - the worst example of our climate.

 

I'm struggling to remember a day recently (even the nicer, abnormally mild ones) where it hasn't rained at some point. I haven't checked the models in ages because I generally lose interest at this time of year, but every evening i have a peek at my weather app and it'll say "20 percent of showers" or something which always translates into hours of absolutely lashing it down.

My kitchen entrance looks like the battle of the somme at the moment where everything is so muddy. The roads on my estate have flooded several times and everything is just dank, wet and gross.

[Weather-history]

Leaf litter that becomes mushy and slippery on paths. Yuck.

[Scorcher]

16 minutes ago, Azazel said:

This weather is revolting - the worst example of our climate.

 

I'm struggling to remember a day recently (even the nicer, abnormally mild ones) where it hasn't rained at some point. I haven't checked the models in ages because I generally lose interest at this time of year, but every evening i have a peek at my weather app and it'll say "20 percent of showers" or something which always translates into hours of absolutely lashing it down.

My kitchen entrance looks like the battle of the somme at the moment where everything is so muddy. The roads on my estate have flooded several times and everything is just dank, wet and gross.

Must have been worse down there then- we had no rain over the weekend at all and pretty much nothing between Thursday and Tuesday. Unbroken sunshine on Sunday along with the exceptional temps.

That said it is vile today and looks like remaining that way all day.

[A Face like Thunder]

Strange set-up. We have a yellow weather warning here in Cheshire but steady rather than heavy rain (as per normal) at the moment. Weather warning further south has expired, yet radio weather reports of serious flooding around Crawley and the M23 / A23 area. The cumulative effects of recent rain perhaps?  

[mb018538]

33 minutes ago, Azazel said:

This weather is revolting - the worst example of our climate.

 

I'm struggling to remember a day recently (even the nicer, abnormally mild ones) where it hasn't rained at some point. I haven't checked the models in ages because I generally lose interest at this time of year, but every evening i have a peek at my weather app and it'll say "20 percent of showers" or something which always translates into hours of absolutely lashing it down.

My kitchen entrance looks like the battle of the somme at the moment where everything is so muddy. The roads on my estate have flooded several times and everything is just dank, wet and gross.

I'm sick of it as well. Another utterly vile day in the offing. A nice anticyclone wouldn't go amiss now following weeks of this tripe.

[Yarmy]

Ironically, the Scandi HP that everyone craves is stalling the depression over the SE today.

[Summer8906]

On 15/11/2022 at 12:38, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

Yes, I am actually glad we are having a wet autumn this time round. Those who hate the rain have been very fortunate really as we have had three consecutive seasons drier than average. I am glad we are experiencing something different and more interesting. 

Was winter 21/22 and spring 22 especially dry everywhere though?

Here, December 2021 was rather wet, February 2022 probably a little wetter than average, March about average (wet start, dry later) and May somewhat wetter than average. Thus I would guess that both winter and spring were close to average overall.

Flooding I think will be the big problem in central southern England unless the pattern changes soon. A wet December will cause big problems round here I suspect, and certainly I suspect a wet winter could bring a really major disruptive flooding event.

Edited November 17, 2022 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

14 hours ago, damianslaw said:

I did comment though on how often protracted very dry periods tend to be followed by very wet periods and vice versa, many occasion this has happened, have we entered a long wet period I wonder.. certainly has gone very unsettled past few weeks and wet. 

Does seem to be the case though we have had very bad luck with autumn/winter in recent years for the wet weather, which has heightened the gloom of the darker months. Autumn/winter 21/22 was fairly benign on the whole, but 19/20 and 20/21 both wet and unsettled on the whole, and now this year is following the same path.

The GFS 06Z is a true horror show. I think if that does come to pass then there's the possibility November 2022 could challenge January 2014 (?) for the wettest month of the past 100 years. We certainly do not need endless cyclonic weather like that, and the extreme amounts of rainfall that will bring. Better drought than potentially dangerous flooding.

I actually think 2022 could end up a wetter-than-average year in south Hampshire, due to likely historic rainfall in November, and the same low-jetstream horror show persisting into December.

While this year is particularly extreme, people would have to be mad to voluntarily visit the UK between November and January.

 

Edited November 17, 2022 by Summer8906

[A Face like Thunder]

Summer 8906, I don't think we're far off a major problem in Sussex, given the current flood alerts and warnings. Wondering what the water levels are like in reservoirs such as Bewl and Ardingly? And are the hosepipe bans still in force? 

[Nick L]

4 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

Does seem to be the case though we have had very bad luck with autumn/winter in recent years for the wet weather, which has heightened the gloom of the darker months. Autumn/winter 21/22 was fairly benign on the whole, but 19/20 and 20/21 both wet and unsettled on the whole, and now this year is following the same path.

The GFS 06Z is a true horror show. I think if that does come to pass then there's the possibility November 2022 could challenge January 2014 (?) for the wettest month of the past 100 years. We certainly do not need endless cyclonic weather like that, and the extreme amounts of rainfall that will bring. Better drought than potentially dangerous flooding.

I actually think 2022 could end up a wetter-than-average year in south Hampshire, due to likely historic rainfall in November, and the same low-jetstream horror show persisting into December.

While this year is particularly extreme, people would have to be mad to voluntarily visit the UK between November and January.

 

The patterns we're seeing in recent years are definitely concerning, not just this year. It's another period where we've switched from drought conditions to immediate flooding rains. There never seems to be a happy medium any more.

[Summer8906]

3 minutes ago, A Face like Thunder said:

Summer 8906, I don't think we're far off a major problem in Sussex, given the current flood alerts and warnings. Wondering what the water levels are like in reservoirs such as Bewl and Ardingly? And are the hosepipe bans still in force? 

Heard about major problems in Sussex on the radio last night. e.g. the A27 completely closed between Havant and Chichester. Thankfully, here, last night's storm wasn't too extreme.

Despite what some say, we need anticyclonic weather soon and an end to this extreme rainfall. I count myself lucky that I live in a fairly elevated location, well away from any rivers.

Edited November 17, 2022 by Summer8906

[Nick L]

2 minutes ago, A Face like Thunder said:

Summer 8906, I don't think we're far off a major problem in Sussex, given the current flood alerts and warnings. Wondering what the water levels are like in reservoirs such as Bewl and Ardingly? And are the hosepipe bans still in force? 

It may seem absurd that we still have drought restrictions, but groundwater is still low in the southeast. Ponds and lakes here are still well below normal levels. It will take several months for groundwater and aquifers to recover.

[Summer8906]

7 minutes ago, Nick L said:

The patterns we're seeing in recent years are definitely concerning, not just this year. It's another period where we've switched from drought conditions to immediate flooding rains. There never seems to be a happy medium any more.

We don't get "classic westerly weather" too much any more, i.e. a frontal system producing only moderate rainfall, then followed by a ridge of high pressure for a day or two then the next frontal system.

"Atlantic" weather seems to involve either extremely windy spells (e.g. this Feb) or extremely wet, cyclonic spells (such as now).  Southerly jetstreams seem to be particularly disproportionately common, with lows tracking across the UK rather than the classic Icelandic route.

Wondering when the next dry month will be? I'm placing bets on February. December to be very wet, January to be unsettled but non-extreme, and then finally a settling down of the weather occurs after five consecutive wet months.

Edited November 17, 2022 by Summer8906

[Sceptical]

Amber warnings out for NE Scotland tomorrow.

 

[Weather Enthusiast91]

27 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

Here, December 2021 was rather wet, February 2022 probably a little wetter than average, March about average (wet start, dry later) and May somewhat wetter than average. Thus I would guess that both winter and spring were close to average overall.

I am sorry to hear that. Whilst I am happy with the rain for the timebeing, I certainly don't want a complete washout for any longer than necessary. I am hoping that once we are in December, things will settle down and we'll start seeing some crisp and dry blue sky days . These days, we don't seem to get much in the way of a happy medium; it is either one or the other. I miss the days when our weather was more varied. 

[Summer8906]

16 minutes ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

I am sorry to hear that. Whilst I am happy with the rain for the timebeing, I certainly don't want a complete washout for any longer than necessary. I am hoping that once we are in December, things will settle down and we'll start seeing some crisp and dry blue sky days . These days, we don't seem to get much in the way of a happy medium; it is either one or the other. I miss the days when our weather was more varied. 

The lack of winds from a northerly direction is the big problem with our current climate IMO. And when they do happen, it tends to be in association with a cyclonic setup in late spring or early summer when they just produce rain, gloom and unseasonable chill! Such a setup in winter would produce snow but it never seems to happen.

[MP-R]

1 hour ago, Summer8906 said:

 

The GFS 06Z is a true horror show. I think if that does come to pass then there's the possibility November 2022 could challenge January 2014 (?) for the wettest month of the past 100 years. We certainly do not need endless cyclonic weather like that, and the extreme amounts of rainfall that will bring. Better drought than potentially dangerous flooding.

 

 

If this November turns out wetter than January 2014, the next target is November 2000, then 2002, then 2009 here. All those three months were 200mm+ months whereas Jan 2014 wasn't.

[damianslaw]

Reservoirs are still quite low will take alot more rain to top them to normal levels, had this month fallen on the back of a wet summer and early autumn we woukd be in trouble a la 2000 and 2009 and 2015. 

[Summer8906]

3 hours ago, MP-R said:

If this November turns out wetter than January 2014, the next target is November 2000, then 2002, then 2009 here. All those three months were 200mm+ months whereas Jan 2014 wasn't.

Ah right, sorry - for some reason I had it in my head that January 2014 was the wettest month of the past 100 years or so. Think I must have got confused with winter 2013/4 being the wettest winter for 100 years.

So it appears to show that even though winter has the most reputation for screaming zonality, autumn is perhaps the wettest season overall. Perhaps autumn has a tendency for very large, deep lows but not necessarily with the winds, while winter has a tendency to have the strongest winds, but pressure can be higher and rainfall less? It's of note for example that Eunice produced very little rainfall here, despite damaging winds, though the immediately following Franklin gave significantly more. I remember being out around 5pm on the day of Eunice (at that time of year it would still be light) and the ground was distinctly dry. And the other storm of that period I remember nick-naming "Dry Dudley", as it produced no rain, IIRC.

2 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Reservoirs are still quite low will take alot more rain to top them to normal levels, had this month fallen on the back of a wet summer and early autumn we woukd be in trouble a la 2000 and 2009 and 2015. 

But please let's not have these synoptics for much of the winter otherwise we really will be in trouble!

(As it happened, 2000 and 2009 certainly had dry spells at times during the summer, though July 2009 was wet. If those two summers had been wet then the flooding would have been even worse, and I hate to think what might have happened had summer 2007 followed a wet spring).

Edited November 17, 2022 by Summer8906

[ChannelThunder]

6 hours ago, Summer8906 said:

Ah right, sorry - for some reason I had it in my head that January 2014 was the wettest month of the past 100 years or so. Think I must have got confused with winter 2013/4 being the wettest winter for 100 years.

So it appears to show that even though winter has the most reputation for screaming zonality, autumn is perhaps the wettest season overall. Perhaps autumn has a tendency for very large, deep lows but not necessarily with the winds, while winter has a tendency to have the strongest winds, but pressure can be higher and rainfall less? It's of note for example that Eunice produced very little rainfall here, despite damaging winds, though the immediately following Franklin gave significantly more. I remember being out around 5pm on the day of Eunice (at that time of year it would still be light) and the ground was distinctly dry. And the other storm of that period I remember nick-naming "Dry Dudley", as it produced no rain, IIRC.

But please let's not have these synoptics for much of the winter otherwise we really will be in trouble!

(As it happened, 2000 and 2009 certainly had dry spells at times during the summer, though July 2009 was wet. If those two summers had been wet then the flooding would have been even worse, and I hate to think what might have happened had summer 2007 followed a wet spring).

Yes, Eunice was a very strange one, wasn't it? I think we had about 20 minutes of rainfall from it in the early morning I believe. At the peak of the winds during late morning there was fairly bright sunshine for hours!