Autumn 2022 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[A Face like Thunder]

From radio weather reports this morning, the amber warning for rain in Central and NE Scotland already seems to be fully justified.

[Downburst]

2 hours ago, A Face like Thunder said:

From radio weather reports this morning, the amber warning for rain in Central and NE Scotland already seems to be fully justified.

Yes, my heart goes out to anyone flooded or heavily inconvenienced by this. You know we can take all sorts of cold and heat and still be ok in a house etc. But to get flooded, now that is really weather. Makes one wonder the constant pursuit on the mod thread for winter wonderland on a weather channel thread for model discussion when all this rain is having impacts that are staring us in the face. 

[East Lancs Rain]

Weather back to normal now yesterday was horrible 8C max and rain most of the day. ️ Hate this time of year. Counting down the days until spring!

[johncam]

5 minutes ago, East Lancs Rain said:

Weather back to normal now yesterday was horrible 8C max and rain most of the day. ️ Hate this time of year. Counting down the days until spring!

Was always a cold and snow lover , but at best we seem to get cold rain , yep roll on spring 

[Atmogenic]

Went to Bedgebury today and it was a lucky day to go there, the weather was nice with some fair skies and by the time we reached the end it started to cloud over, would love to go back when spring arrives 

 

[MP-R]

Beautiful autumnal day down here. Plenty of sunshine and a high off 11C. A chilly night to come.

[carinthian]

Well the snow set in earlier this evening and temp just below freezing now. Looks nice and white outside already. Difficult charts to evaluate but looks like quite a bit of snow due over the coming days in these parts. The cold air creeping down from the North and East. Looks about NE Holland the extent of any CAA. Back in Blighty, Flambough Head in East Yorkshire just about the limit  of any cold air into the British Isles. I think another let down for you guys. The long wait for a proper snowy scenario continues going by the latest model runs. I just hope for the many lover of winter cold back in blighty get some reward. Your patience is being tested to the limits.

C

Edited November 18, 2022 by carinthian

[AderynCoch]

Not exactly Buffalo but it's a start:

[78/79]

Nice to wake up to a frost, and sunshine this morning. 

[Evening thunder]

On 15/11/2022 at 11:16, Summer8906 said:

I think next spring will have to be very dry indeed for there to be any talk of water problems next year.

This is something that would probably surprise many, but this is not necessarily the case.

In the SW, it's only been in November that reservoirs have showed any significant uptick overall, and this is still minor for the 4 large reservoirs.

This graph is up to the 13th November and is slightly biased by including Burrator, which has reached 100% because it is a smaller reservoir on a larger catchment.

Many show a more modest increase like Colliford, the largest reservoir in Cornwall and the 2nd largestin the SW, which was still only 18.5% full on the 13th.

 
 

September was wetter than average for much of Devon and Cornwall, and October near average according to Met Office maps (meaning 150mm for each month over upland areas such as Bodmin Moor where Colliford is), yet the large reservoirs continued to fall until later in October even if the rate slowed.

One reason for this is that after dry weather, much of the rainfall is absorbed by soil/dry peat of the moorlands rather than generating streamflow that feeds reservoirs, and percolating to groundwater. So 'effective' (streamflow generating) rainfall is much lower until the soil moisture deficit is reduced.

The other factor is the four large reservoirs in the SW are large reservoirs in small catchments. Basically they need a winter of rainfall to refill (note Colliford did not refill to capacity last winter after only dropping to ~60%. This year it dropped to ~15%...). This is perhaps a flaw in design (although it would be hard to have reservoirs in larger river catchments here without flooding significant areas of productive land/settlements).

Therefore, while the current pattern is helping, if we get a drier than average winter (increased likelihood in latest Met Office contingency planners forecast), there may well be water usage restrictions next year in the SW. Spring/summer would then have to do something like a 2012 to avert water shortages, as it's much harder to get significant reservoir level increases in summer due to lower rainfall averages, and much higher evapotranspiration (and therefore much lower 'effective' rainfall).

Edited November 19, 2022 by Evening thunder

[Sunny76]

Check the temps over in Riga and the in-laws have snow on the ground. They live further out in the countryside, but the daytime maxes are already down to -2c with -5 overnight. 
 

2 weeks back, they still had temps around 14-17c, but the shift to much colder weather is happening.

Hoping to see the white stuff when we head there next month, but like someone else said, the cold doesn’t always linger in Latvia, like it did back in the 2000s.

[tinybill]

just  been watching  the  met  office  5 days  if they are right  by Friday  there  could problems  of flooding  seems of lot of rain  is heading  our way at the  moment

[markyo]

A proper Autumn weekend, love it. The feel is just right, seasonal, light levels fantastic, proper weather also. Least the last few Autumn weeks are making up for the shocking start to the season.

[damianslaw]

Tomorrow marks the start of 'late Autumn' for me.. lasting through to about 10th Dec. A time often mild and very wet, probably wettest 3 weeks of the year on average and dullest. Winter often doesnt arrive until mid Dec nowadays i.e. true cold feeling days, early winter lasting through to mid Jan, despite light levels increasing again. High winter mid Jan to mid Feb. 

Edited November 19, 2022 by damianslaw

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

73' for parts of Boston, now that's a winter storm! Need to move to the States for my snow fix it seems! 

https://youtu.be/zYtH32NYJk4

 

[stainesbloke]

Currently very cold in the Czech Republic, had about an inch of snow yesterday and now it’s -6°C, brrr  

Had loads of dense fog over the last few weeks, proper autumn weather.

[Paul]

1 hour ago, Weather of Mass Disruption said:

73' for parts of Boston, now that's a winter storm! Need to move to the States for my snow fix it seems! 

https://youtu.be/zYtH32NYJk4

 

There's a thread about it here - some incredible photos and video.

https://community.netweather.tv/topic/97995-historic-lake-effect-snowfall-event-buffalo-new-york/?do=getNewComment

 

[Don]

33 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Currently very cold in the Czech Republic, had about an inch of snow yesterday and now it’s -6°C, brrr  

Had loads of dense fog over the last few weeks, proper autumn weather.

Probably an inch more of snow than I will see this winter!! 

[S Bragg]

Some hints of a change in the models, according to the model thread.  Dare I say there's some stirrings of a transition to more wintry weather in time for early December?

No, probably not.  Maybe?

Edited November 20, 2022 by S Bragg

[Sunny76]

Looking cold over in Riga right now.

[Sceptical]

Met office Outlook to 3rd December. Wet, windy with seasonal temperatures

Atlantic onslaught continues.

Weather and climate change

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

---

Met Office weather forecasts for the UK. World leading weather services for the public.

 

[A Face like Thunder]

Another calm before the storm? Yellow weather warning for wind now issued for tomorrow, Monday, in SW England and Wales.

[Summer8906]

16 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Tomorrow marks the start of 'late Autumn' for me.. lasting through to about 10th Dec. A time often mild and very wet, probably wettest 3 weeks of the year on average and dullest. Winter often doesnt arrive until mid Dec nowadays i.e. true cold feeling days, early winter lasting through to mid Jan, despite light levels increasing again. High winter mid Jan to mid Feb. 

For me winter is defined more by day length and state of nature than temperature, as winter is almost always mild down here anyway. It's already been late autumn for three weeks now (which starts for me when the clocks go back), and I define winter as beginning when the leaves have fallen off the trees which most year very closely coincides with the start of December. So December is absolutely a winter month, as it's dark and the countryside is bare. In fact I'd probably class December as the most "wintry" month of all, as nature is dead throughout the month. Jan is, believe it or not, less "wintry" than December as there are signs of spring (snowdrops) at the end of the month.

"Early winter" is perhaps the period when the nights are still drawing in. "Mid-winter" for me starts around the solstice and extends for about 5 weeks, then, by late Jan, we're firmly in late winter. For most of February, sunset is after 5pm here, so it's less wintry than November, let alone December! Add to that the crocuses and, towards the end of the month, daffodils, and a fair chance of relatively mild and sunny weather, which we just about never get in December.

Edited November 20, 2022 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

7 hours ago, Sceptical said:

Met office Outlook to 3rd December. Wet, windy with seasonal temperatures

Atlantic onslaught continues.

Weather and climate change

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

---

Met Office weather forecasts for the UK. World leading weather services for the public.

 

GFS (00Z and 06Z) a bit better, in the sense that pressure rises significantly by the end of the week, albeit still with SW winds, so I'd expect mild, dull but fairly dry (occasionally drizzly) weather to dominate down south by then. Signs of something of an anticyclone at the end of the month but perhaps we've been there before.

Early December all over the place on those two runs.

In the meantime though it looks like deluges on Monday, Wednesday and Thursday so a pretty ghastly week this week.

Edited November 20, 2022 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

A surprisingly pleasant interlude since Thursday, despite charts which looked pretty rotten and which I expected a lot of rainfall out of in the form of frequent showers with high cloud amounts. Coldish and mostly bright weather on Thurs, Fri and Sat with very little rainfall. Today also bright but perhaps the last decent day until next weekend.

The closing days of the month don't look too bad at the moment - pressure average to slightly-above, so while it looks like unexciting weather (mild, cloudy) at least we'll be spared the deluges by then.

So it looks like while this month will end up very wet, it won't be record breaking thanks to the break we've enjoyed for the past three days and likely drier weather at the very end.