Winter 2022-23 early thoughts - general chat

[Don]

3 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Shift that anomaly N and we’re in business. Looking at how it is, it seems to be suggestive of a UK inversion high.

Yep, high too far south!

[sebastiaan1973]

Latest EC46 for the periode after half november.

Stratosphere (not shown) after an increase in the first 10 days of november, the winds are blowing around the normal values. 

[MAF]

13 hours ago, Sceptical said:

Apparently Svalbard is the fastest warming place on earth. Temperatures have increased by 4c in the last 50 years.

2030 could be the next WTF moment for UK winters.

Svalbard: The race to save the fastest-warming place on Earth

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

---

Svalbard, a Norwegian archipelago, is thought to be heating at six times the global average.

 

 

I read that report earlier, the worrying part is that not only is the warming happening, but nature is affected too. Polar bears are coming more and more inland to find food. flora, fauna is being affected, all very sad to see and read about.  

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 hour ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Latest EC46 for the periode after half november.

Stratosphere (not shown) after an increase in the first 10 days of november, the winds are blowing around the normal values. 

Same as CFS going into December- UK HP. That wouldn't be good enough to see some snowfall but it would be cold.

[Catacol]

2 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

I’m not convinced of this 40c breach, uhi and positioning of weather stations have compromised it eg in uhi hot spots.  For sure it was hot, but for example Charlwood in Surrey wasn’t the 1st 40c….it was 37.5c…that ‘disappeared’.   The summer overall was of similar ilk to past greats.

1984 had ridiculously mild and wet October and VERY mild November

 

BFTP

Nonsense. I live 7 miles from the RAF station at Coningsby that recorded the 40. There is no UHI in central Lincolnshire and every amateur station and recorder around showed 40. I grow seriously tired of the conspiracy theories that readings are inaccurate compared to some fabled past where apparently the stations all worked properly. Tired, old theories. I have followed the weather closely now for over 20 years - watched the arguments of those predicting imminent cold fall away gradually and seen nothing to shift the perception that we have crossed a threshold towards rapidly rising temperatures. Cheeky Monkey correctly points out the reality of land mass temperature rises and we can all see them up close now. 

[johnholmes]

3 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

I’m not convinced of this 40c breach, uhi and positioning of weather stations have compromised it eg in uhi hot spots.  For sure it was hot, but for example Charlwood in Surrey wasn’t the 1st 40c….it was 37.5c…that ‘disappeared’.   The summer overall was of similar ilk to past greats.

1984 had ridiculously mild and wet October and VERY mild November

 

BFTP

You don't half talk rubbish at times to try and prove your pet theories. That may sound harsh but I have read your posts for several years.

[northwestsnow]

Satisfied with E46..

Anticylonic sums it after the 1st week to 10 days in November..

Certainly scope for Frost and fog which sounds right up my street.. 

[Georgina]

On 25/10/2022 at 21:47, SqueakheartLW said:

GFS 12z P16 is the run we want as we head into November

Just gets progressively colder as we head into next month and eventually has a taste of winter late in the run

Even gets a little bit of snow in too.

Doesn’t that tie in with what the Met monthly forecast was hinting at ? 
second week in November colder and a hint of snow to northern areas ? 

[bluearmy]

21 minutes ago, Georgina said:

Doesn’t that tie in with what the Met monthly forecast was hinting at ? 
second week in November colder and a hint of snow to northern areas ? 

That’s been binned on their monthly forecast - but I wouldn’t discount a norwester/northerly at that time - doubtful how cold that would be though. 

there is a strong anticyclonic signal second half November - the actual positioning of that will remain under review for a few weeks yet …..

Edited October 28, 2022 by bluearmy

[jules216]

Looking at how things are shaping Up there is no wonder why there is nearly inverse correlation of October NAO forecast for month of November on the ECM model. Especially GFS 0Z is a run that you want to break your computer screen. This blocking high pressure is now bringing me 3 RD day in a row fog and low Cloud, yet other V4 countries its been Sunny, more warmer uppers going forward= thicker fog. 

[sheikhy]

Icelandic heights pretty much gone on latest ecm46!!but the high over the uk would give very cold frosty nights and maybe frosty days in the shade!!!

[mountain shadow]

1 hour ago, sheikhy said:

Icelandic heights pretty much gone on latest ecm46!!but the high over the uk would give very cold frosty nights and maybe frosty days in the shade!!!

La Nina certainly doing the business in Australia with October rainfall already double the average in many areas with the T20 a wash out.

Yet, we just can't seem to get the expected La Nina impacts in our part of the world...yet.

[Frostbite80]

Interestingly the ne pacific has been cooling a fair bit in the last week and if that continues would it be enough to at least weaken any high pressure that might set up there moving into winter.

Also some cooling in the central belt of the atlantic....

[Don]

13 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Satisfied with E46..

Anticylonic sums it after the 1st week to 10 days in November..

Certainly scope for Frost and fog which sounds right up my street.. 

At least it would feel more seasonal!

[northwestsnow]

Exeter seemingly backed away from High latitude blocking mid November.

Subtle changes now suggestive of a UK High ..

 

 

[Gregulator]

19 hours ago, MAF said:

I read that report earlier, the worrying part is that not only is the warming happening, but nature is affected too. Polar bears are coming more and more inland to find food. flora, fauna is being affected, all very sad to see and read about.  

If you go on to the snow and ice in the northern hemisphere thread you may be abit enlightened to the current situation rather then the bbc biased sensationalism. 

[MAF]

7 minutes ago, Gregulator said:

If you go on to the snow and ice in the northern hemisphere thread you may be abit enlightened to the current situation rather then the bbc biased sensationalism. 

I read many things from many differing sources. I don't think I need telling what I should read or not and who i should believe or not thank you

Edited October 28, 2022 by MAF

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

18 hours ago, johnholmes said:

You don't half talk rubbish at times to try and prove your pet theories. That may sound harsh but I have read your posts for several 

 No offence taken John, you are of course a man of great experience and knowledge.   No further response from me as no need to go there…..excessive record cold events are quite incredible at the moment though….    

regards
 

BFTP

Edited October 28, 2022 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

21 hours ago, Premier Neige said:

But we were in the cold phase of the AMO at that point. Am I correct in thinking that there were a lot of cold shots from the North West during that winter which would have been aided by the colder Atlantic? Or have I got that wrong? I know it was one of the early to mid 80's winters.

 I know that Jan 85 was really cold and snowy, and not of just pM airflow.  It was incredibly cold.  

 

BFTP

[damianslaw]

25 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Exeter seemingly backed away from High latitude blocking mid November.

Subtle changes now suggestive of a UK High ..

 

 

Yes reading between lines looks the case, probably heights building in from the south to centre over the UK as we move through mid Nov, probably cold nights and average temps by day, but would at least feel more seasonal than the silly warmth we have now. November can be a miserable dull wet month, a high overhead would be most welcomed. Always a chance could then migrate to a more favourable position for notable cold come December, or just sink away south!.. 

[Don]

33 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Exeter seemingly backed away from High latitude blocking mid November.

Subtle changes now suggestive of a UK High ..

 

 

Hmm, not a good trend IMO.  In view that early winter was our best hope for cold, not good!

5 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Always a chance could then migrate to a more favourable position for notable cold come December, or just sink away south!.. 

I know where my money would be! 

Edited October 28, 2022 by Don

[damianslaw]

1 minute ago, Don said:

Hmm, not a good trend IMO.  In view that early winter was our best hope for cold, not good!

I know where my money would be! 

Keep the faith! Don't get that sinking feel! 

[Don]

6 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Keep the faith! Don't get that sinking feel! 

Frost and fog would indeed be more seasonal, however, any pattern that would deliver something of interest seems to be put back.  First it was November, then second half of the month and now possibly December?

Think I've probably gone and jinxed the chances of a cold early winter now as I joked with family that this current warmth is expected to last until at least Christmas!!  Will probably come back to bite me on the backside!! 

Edited October 28, 2022 by Don

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

19 hours ago, Catacol said:

Nonsense. I live 7 miles from the RAF station at Coningsby that recorded the 40. There is no UHI in central Lincolnshire and every amateur station and recorder around showed 40. I grow seriously tired of the conspiracy theories that readings are inaccurate compared to some fabled past where apparently the stations all worked properly. Tired, old theories. I have followed the weather closely now for over 20 years - watched the arguments of those predicting imminent cold fall away gradually and seen nothing to shift the perception that we have crossed a threshold towards rapidly rising temperatures. Cheeky Monkey correctly points out the reality of land mass temperature rises and we can all see them up close now. 

 

I understand the sentiment….but here’s a very important Continent in relation to GW I believe, the US, source NOAA. No threshold of constant uncontrollable heating crossed imo.  Can you pinpoint this threshold please?  And there’s been swathes ofrecord cold in Antarctica, South America, Australia, South Africa….and tbf there’s been blasts of real warmth as NZ showed for most of their winter.  Anyway….I’m happy to see where we are running to, no one knows is the reality….

BFTP 

Edited October 28, 2022 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

21 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

Just how much of a UHI effect can there be -- in Lincolnshire, Fred?

Gave my example in Charlwood, Surrey….you been there?  Do you know where it is?

 

BFTP