November 2022 C.E.T. and EWP contests -- final month of the 2021-22 competitions

[Relativistic]

November confirmed as 9.2C:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/data/meantemp_monthly_totals.txt

[Roger J Smith]

Here's a look at the order of finish for Nov in CET and EWP, with best combined forecasts noted. The convention used for ranking CET is to drop any late forecasts by one rank. This explains why a few entries are ranked slightly out of order as shown, it's only for the purposes of the "best combined" that this happens. This rank adjustment is already built into EWP scoring as shown. EWP has finished at 158.8 mm. Table shows all EWP ranks, but adds up (to CET) only those who are close to the top ten (as in golf low score wins).

As always, confirmation of the results for CET will come when J10 posts scoring tables. 

 

Rank _ CET _ EWP _ Forecaster (order) _____________ EWP, added to CET rank _ Best combined (top ten shown)

 _ 01 __ 9.1 _194.0_ I Remember Atlantic252 ( 17 ) __06 __ 07 (best combined)

_ 02 __ 9.1 _122.0_ Reef ( 25 ) ________________________ 08 __ 10 (3rd)

_ 03 __ 9.3 _122.0_ davehsug ( 35 ) ___________________ 09 __ 12 (4th)

_ 04 __ 9.0 _107.0_ Ed Stone ( 13 ) ____________________ 20 __ 24 (9th)

_ 05 __ 8.9 _113.0_ Roger J Smith ( 19 ) _______________ 17 __ 22 (8th)

_ 06 __ 8.9 _ --- --- _ Earthshine ( 27 ) __________________ --- 

_ 08 __ 8.9 _120.0 _ SLEETY ( L1-1 ) ____________________ 13 __ 21 (7th)

_ 07 __ 9.6 _142.0_ virtualsphere ( 14 ) ________________ 02 __ 09 (2nd)

_ 09 __ 8.8 _120.0_ rwtwm ( 18 ) _______________________ 10 __ 19 (5th)

_ 10 __ 8.8 _111.0_ Emmett Garland ( 22 ) ____________  19 __ 29 (12th)

_ 11 __ 8.7 _ --- ---_ WarwickshireLad ( 05 ) ___________  ---

_ 12 __ 8.7 _ --- --- _Froze were the Days ( 31 ) ________ ---

_ 13 __ 8.7 _123.0_ stewfox ( 40 ) ______________________07 __ 20 (6th)

_ 14 __ 8.7 _ --- ---_ Mark Bayley ( 41 ) ________________ ---

_ 15 __ 8.6 _ --- ---_ Kentish Man ( 56 ) ________________ ---

_ 17 __ 8.6 __ 97.0 _ dancerwithwings ( L1-2 ) _________ 29

_ 16 __ 8.5 __ 92.0 _ Summer18 ( 11 ) _________________ 32

_ 18 __ 9.9 __ --- --- _ Summer Sun ( 20 )_______________ ---

_ 19 __ 8.5 __ 70.0_ The PIT ( 32 ) _____________________44

_ 20 __ 8.4 __ 87.0_ Feb1991Blizzard ( 42 ) ___________ 36

_ 21 __ 8.4 _115.0_ prolongedSnowLover ( 44 ) ______ 15 __ 36

_ 22 __ 8.4 _132.0_ noname_weather ( 50 ) __________ 03 __ 25 (10th)

_ 24 __ 8.4 _133.0_ Booferking ( L1-3 ) _______________ 04 __ 28 (11th) 

_ 23 __10.1 __ 65.0_ syed2878 ( 29 ) __________________45

_ 25 __10.1 _ --- ---_ Andrew R ( 45 ) ___________________ ---

_ 26 __ 8.3 __ 94.0 _ February1978 ( 54 ) ______________ 31

_ 27 __ 8.2 __ 84.0_ Bobd29 ( 04 ) ____________________ 39

_ 28 __10.3 _127.0_ shillitocettwo ( 12 ) ______________ 05 __ 33

_ 29 __ 8.1 _100.0_ snowray ( 15 ) ____________________ 26

_ 30 __ 8.1 __ 97.0_ Midlands Ice Age ( 43 ) ___________ 28

_ 31 __ 8.1 _115.0_ Jonboy ( 47 ) ______________________ 16

_ 32 __ 8.0 _102.0 _weather-history ( 30 ) ____________ 25

_ 33 __ 8.0 _120.0 _ J 10 ( 54 ) _________________________ 12

_ 34 __ 7.9 __ 79.0_ SteveB ( 03 ) ______________________ 41

_ 35 __ 7.9 _ 105.0_ sunny_vale ( 23 ) _________________ 22

_ 36 __ 7.9 __ 86.0_ Blast From The Past ( 26 ) _______ 37

_ 37 __ 7.9 _ 112.0 _ Stationary Front ( 49 ) __________ 18

_ 38 __ 7.9 __ 75.0 _ seaside60 ( 51 ) _________________ 43

_ 39 __ 7.8 _ --- --- _ Richie3846 ( 01 ) _________________ ---

_ 40 __ 7.8 _ 120.0 _ John88b ( 28 ) ___________________ 11

_ 41 __ 7.7 __ 90.0_ Wold Topper ( 24 ) _______________ 34

_ 42 __ 7.7 __ --- --- _damianslaw ( 52 ) _______________ ---

_ 43 __ 7.6 __ 96.0_ weather26 ( 02 ) _________________ 30

_ 44 __ 7.6 __ 45.0_ Chilly Milly ( 08 ) __________________ 48

 

_ 45 __ 7.6 _ 103.0_ Mr Maunder ( 33 ) ________________ 24

_ 46 __ 7.6 _ --- --- _ Walsall Wood Snow ( 39 ) _________ ---

_ 47 __ 7.5 _ 100.0_ DR(S)NO ( 34 ) _____________________ 27

_ 48 __ 7.4 __ 88.2_ Kirkcaldy Weather ( 16 ) ___________ 35

_ 49 __ 7.4 __ 92.0 _ Don ( 53 ) _________________________ 33

_ 50 __ 7.3 _ 103.5_ Polar Gael ( 07 ) ___________________ 23

_ 51 __ 7.3 __ 85.0 _ Mulzy ( 46 ) _______________________ 38

_(50)__ 7.3 _ 106.1_ 1991-2020 average (7.3 104.4 1992-2021) _ (22nd EWP)

_ 52 __ 7.2 __ 60.0_ DiagonalRedLine ( 10 ) _____________ 47

_ 53 __ 7.1 _ 115.0_ Freeze ( 38 ) ________________________ 14

_(54)__ 7.0 _ 100.4_ 1981-2010 average _________________(26)

_ 54 __ 6.9 __ 42.0_ Frigid ( 21 ) __________________________ 49

_ 55 __ 6.8 _ 155.0_ NeilN ( 06 ) __________________________ 1st EWP

_ 56 __ 6.8 __ 80.0 _ JeffC ( 09 ) ___________________________ 40

_ 57 __ 6.8 _ 107.0_ Summer Blizzard ( 48 ) ______________ 21

_ 58 __ 6.6 __ 77.0_ Godber 1 ( 37 ) _______________________42

_ 59 __ 6.4 __ 65.0_ daniel* ( 36 ) _________________________46

 

 

Edited December 5, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[Don]

1 hour ago, Relativistic said:

November confirmed as 9.2C:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/data/meantemp_monthly_totals.txt

The same CET as April this year.

[Frigid]

1 hour ago, Don said:

The same CET as April this year.

A similar thing happened last year but in December. 6.4C in April and December (legacy CET)

[Roger J Smith]

Here is a final report on how consensus and the two normals fared in the contest year. The contest was scored using legacy CET values Dec to Apr and v2.0 (all that now exists) in May to November. These tables show the actual values, then the errors, and the contest ranks of the entrants who have similar values for average error. This gives an approximate idea of how the "robots" are doing although their scores might have added up somewhat differently as the forecasters with those average errors ranked differently in specific months. 

 

(a) actual values

ROBOT ______ DEC _ JAN _ FEB _ MAR _ APR _ MAY _ JUN _JUL _AUG _ SEP _ OCT _ NOV

Consensus __ 4.8 __ 5.4 __ 5.6 __ 7.1 __ 8.4 _ 12.3 _ 15.1 _ 17.5 _17.4 _ 14.9 _11.0 _ 8.0

1981-2010 ___4.6 __ 4.4 __ 4.4 __ 6.6 __ 8.5 _ 11.7 _ 14.4 _ 16.6 _16.5 _ 14.0 _ 10.5 _ 7.0

1991-2020 ___5.0 __ 4.7 __ 4.9 __ 6.7 __ 8.9 _ 11.9 _ 14.6 _ 16.8 _16.6 _ 14.2 _ 10.8 _ 7.3

contest CET _ 6.4 __ 4.6 __ 6.8 __ 7.9 __ 9.1 _ 13.1 _ 14.9 _ 18.2 _18.7 _ 14.4 _ 12.8 _ 9.2

 

(b) absolute errors

ROBOT _____ DEC _ JAN _ FEB _ MAR _ APR _ MAY _ JUN _JUL _AUG _SEP _OCT _NOV __ average

Consensus __ 1.6 __ 0.8 __ 1.2 __ 0.8 __ 0.7 __ 0.8 __ 0.2 __ 0.7 __1.3 _ 0.5 _ 1.8 _ 1.2 ___ 0.97

1981-2010 ___1.8 __ 0.2 __ 2.4 __ 1.3 __ 0.6 __ 1.4 __ 0.5 __ 1.6 __ 2.2 _ 0.4 _ 2.3 _ 2.2 ___ 1.54

1991-2020 ___1.4 __ 0.1 __ 1.9 __ 1.2 __ 0.2 __ 1.2 __ 0.3 __ 1.4 __ 2.1 _ 0.2 _ 2.0 _ 1.9 ___ 1.26

SUMMARY: Consensus was warmer than both normals for all months except Dec (where it was between them) and Apr (when it was below both). The actual value was warmer than both normals in Dec, Feb, Mar, Apr, May, June, July, August, and November, so the contest consensus was correctly placed in Feb, Mar, May, (marginally so) June, July, August, October and November. In December and April, our consensus was too low relative to normal, and in January and June it was too high (not by much in June though). In September, the result was between the normals and our consensus with generally similar errors. The overall performance of consensus has improved further and the 1991-2020 normals are now  considerably better than the cooler 1981-2010 normal values. The lowest average error would have been achieved by any strategy of making forecasts around 1.2 to 1.4 above 1991-2020 averages. The average error of those forecasts (1991-2020 + 1.2 to 1.4) would have been around 0.64 deg.  

 

(c) Contest ranks (now compared against all ranked forecasters incl those at 10/12)

optimal strategy (91-20)+1.2-1.4 (avg error 0.64) _ 1st (Reef 0.67, richie3846 0.71, freeze 0.73)

consensus (avg error 0.97) ____________________t17th (16 are ahead and one is tied) 

1991-2020 (avg error 1.26) ____________________t33rd (32 are ahead and one is tied) 

1981-2010 (avg error 1.54) ____________________ 43rd (42 are ahead, only 5 higher) 

_________________________________________________ 47 forecasters are ranked (have at least 10 of 12 contests entered)

 

(Average error is well correlated with total score but not perfectly so, however it can be inferred that contest ranks overall for the three "robots" would be similar to the above.)

Obviously playing an optimal strategy is a good one, if you can guess in advance what that is; at the moment, any optimal strategy adding 0.5 and 1.5 to 1991-2020 would put you pretty close to the lead, while even just using 1991-2020 averages was doing fairly well until late stages when it dropped considerably to finish only 33rd out of 47, and using the cooler 1981-2010 averages drops all the way down to 42nd out of 47.

Since average error is not the only component of CET contest scoring, it would take a more rigorous analysis to work out the points totals for these automatic type strategies but they are bound to be close in rank to the average error. 

An equally good strategy is to predict consensus plus 0.8, this results in an average error of just 0.60 (refers to 12 months), which is marginally better than the other optimal strategy mentioned (and the contest leaders).  

It has been a warm contest year, probably the warmest Dec to Nov on record, which is why the strategy of adding to 1991-2020 averages or consensus worked well in this contest year. 

(post now updated with relevant info from final contest results)

Edited December 4, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[Walsall Wood Snow]

At 9.2c the only other November in the CET record that shares the same mean CET with 2022 is 1730.

Edited December 1, 2022 by Walsall Wood Snow

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield finished on 8.4C +1.4C above normal. Rainfall 127.2mm 144.1% of the monthly average.

The month the 4th warmest on record for us since 1955

Rainfall the 8th wettest November on record for us.

[damianslaw]

What happened to the cold late Autumn forecast - El Nino esque behaviour and MJO seemed to scupper the La Nina analogues, plus this being a third la nina, looks like we can ignore the analogues, we are in a very different state it seems going into this winter.

[Dancerwithwings]

Just now, damianslaw said:

What happened to the cold late Autumn forecast - El Nino esque behaviour and MJO seemed to scupper the La Nina analogues, plus this being a third la nina, looks like we can ignore the analogues, we are in a very different state it seems going into this winter.

That’s Mother Nature for ya, it’s a so called never, when even the predictable or not so predictable behaviours are at hand

[feb1991blizzard]

how did we do as a team (consensus) compared to other years - are we improving year on year?

[Roger J Smith]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

how did we do as a team (consensus) compared to other years - are we improving year on year?

In the previous contest year there was a very similar outcome. The average error of consensus was about 0.2 lower than the two normals, and anyone who had predicted simply using consensus would have averaged about 23rd, normals closer to 30th-35th in the middle of the pack (that was an average over all months and not directly comparable to some measures this contest year which have ended up being compared to the smaller number who posted 10/12 forecasts). 

So our group skill has been about the same for the past two years. I didn't look back any further and perhaps we have seen a gradual improvement. My feeling is that the group consensus edges ahead mainly because of 3-4 months out of twelve where there seems to be a fairly obvious signal so the normals are playing from behind. In the months that end up closer to average it's hard for our consensus to show much skill against normal anyway, but sometimes it shows a lack of skill as I think Jan 2022 did (the record warm start skewed the consensus up too high and the month ended up on the other side of recent normals). 

In the EWP contests, we have less skill as a group, consensus is beating most of the field but not the two normals which just about won the contest this past year, falling out of top places with the wet November. The EWP consensus is very much a captive of the first half model run guidance, it seems that very few anticipate mid-month trend changes. 

I think it would be interesting to compare our group results to more professional organizations, as I don't think anyone is routinely doing a lot better than these Net-weather consensus forecasts for temperature. 

[Roger J Smith]

The EWP tracker stalled out at 158.5 mm to end of the month. This will result in slight changes to the EWP scoring summary posted a few days ago. I will edit in those changes later and post the more or less final version of EWP scoring (subject to further slight adjustments if they change this value on the 5th). This would be the 15th wettest November since records began in 1766, and the fourth wettest of the period 2000 to 2022, sixth wettest 1963 to 2022. (1963, 1970, 2000, 2002, 2009 were wetter along with nine other years from before 1963). This year replaces 1946 as 15th wettest. 

[Roger J Smith]

Congratulations to freeze who is our annual contest winner. Feb1991Blizzard fought hard to the end to defend his title won last year and finished second. Reef kept climbing up the standings to finish third. 

In the autumn seasonal points race, the top three were shillitocettwo (28.06), J10 (26.67) and Weather26 (21.22). 

The other three seasonal winners were (winter) freeze (28.73), (spring) the PIT (22.58) and (summer) the PIT again (25.93).

The annual scores are now final, with the November tracker (158.5 mm) being updated in the tables to 158.8 mm. This resulted in one change of total score as a tie was broken in NOV, and very small changes to average error throughout for anyone who entered NOV. 

November EWP (and CET) scoring ranks can be seen in the table posted on 1st Dec with CET scoring ranks and best combined info. 

Thanks for supporting the EWP contest. After the 5th I will post a link to the supporting excel file which contains interesting data such as your all-time scoring, numbers of contests won over five years, and a tabulation of best combined forecasts.

 

==== <<<< EWP CONTEST FINAL SCORING (updated estimates) >>>> ====

Some minor changes will be edited into this post on 5th Dec if the November EWP changes from tracker total of 158.5 mm. 

Rank ___ Forecaster _________ Points ____ Avg err (rank) ________ Seasonal ranks

_ 01 _____ Freeze _____________ 77.39 ____ 23.43 ( 1) _____________ 01 26 06 26

_ 02 _____ Feb1991Blizzard ___ 71.64 ____ 27.71 ( 6) _____________ 02 17 05 31

_ 03 _____ Reef ________________ 68.84 ____ 27.41 ( 5) _____________ 37 07 08 12

_ 04 _____ Polar Gael __________ 67.60 ____ 31.54 (22) _____________09 13 17 21 

_ 05 _____ the PIT _____________ 66.51 ____ 29.74 (14) _____________ 20 01 01 53

_ 06 _____ Mr Maunder _______ 66.37 ____ 27.21 ( 4) ______________16 18 25 05

_ 07 _____ J 10 _________________66.16 ____ 28.78 (11) _____________ 13 34 34 02

_ 08 _____ Mulzy _______________66.13 ____ 28.29 ( 8.)______________ 27 12 02 40

_ 09 _____ weather-history ____ 65.79 ____ 28.34 ( 9) ______________ 55 03 12 10

_ 10 _____ bobd29 _____________65.64 ____ 30.03 (16) ______________10 04 31 27

_ 11 _____ DR(S)NO ____________63.69 ____ 30.41 (19) ______________23 23 18 15

_ 12 _____ Don ________________ 63.45 ____ 30.59 (20) ______________30 11 24 13

_ 13 _____ Roger J Smith ______ 62.87 ____ 28.84 (12) ______________ 06 31 16 30

_ 14 _____ Neil N ______________ 62.26 ____ 28.68 (10) ______________ 29 08 28 17

_ 15 _____ rwtwm _____________ 60.62 ____ 31.13 (21) ______________ 32 25 13 22

_ 16 _____ February1978 ______ 60.44 ____ 30.26 (17) ______________ 08 48 20 04

_ 17 _____ virtualsphere _______ 60.29 ____ 30.38 (18) ______________ 26 10 36 06

_ 18 _____ Midlands Ice Age ___ 58.97 ____ 33.56 (28) ______________ 28 43 09 18

_ 19 _____ Emmett Garland ____58.47 ____ 33.69 (29) ______________ 41 24 15 19

_ 20 _____ seaside60 (11) ______ 58.07 ____ 32.09 (24) ______________ 05 30*07 50

 

_ 21 ___ prolongedSnowLover (11) _ 57.96 ____ 29.38 (13) ______________ 47 06 22*25

_ 22 _____ shillitocettwo (11) ___57.59 ____ 36.49 (34) ______________ 64 36 19*01

_ 23 _____ Ed Stone ____________ 56.97 ____ 32.21 (25) ______________ 14 15 30 32

_ 24 _____ SLEETY (9) ___________56.92 ____ 28.09 ( 7) _______________ 12 16 35^24*

_ 25 _____ Jonboy ______________ 55.54 ____ 32.43 (26) ______________ 36 51 04 20

_ 26 _____ daniel* (11) _________ 54.46 ____ 32.79 (27) ______________ 21 38*11 45 _ (a)

_ 27 _____ dancerwithwings ___ 54.29 ____ 31.79 (23) ______________ 04 27 27 44

_ 28 _____ summer blizzard ___ 53.45 ____ 37.56 (36) ______________ 34 35 29 16

_ 29 _____ davehsug ___________ 53.23 ____ 36.56 (35) ______________ 18 19 51 11

_ 30 _____ Frigid _______________ 52.59 ____ 40.58 (41) ______________ 33 02 48 28

_ 31 _____ Wold Topper (9) ____ 52.51 ____ 24.44 ( 2) ______________ ---- 05 03 38

_ 32 _____ noname_weather __ 52.38 ____ 35.38 (32) ______________ 25 37 44 07

_ 33 _____ Weather 26 ________ 51.70 ____ 42.90 (44) ______________ 15 33 55 03

_ 34 _____ summer8906 (9) ___ 50.28 ____ 33.81 (30) ______________ 44*20 40*14*

_ 35 _____ syed2878 __________ 49.13 ____ 37.85 (37) ______________ 46 09 23 46

_ 36 _____ Godber1 ___________ 48.39 ____ 38.18 (38) ______________ 03 54 14 48

_ 37 _____ Stationary Front ___ 47.64 ____ 36.08 (33) ______________ 48 29 43 08

_ 38 _____ Jeff C (10) __________ 47.61 ____ 34.82 (31) ______________ 07 28 45*42* 

_ 39 _____ SteveB (10) ________ 42.83 ____ 45.42 (46) ______________ 42 21*42*36

_ 40 _____ snowray ___________ 42.20 ____ 38.66 (40) ______________ 50 41 26 35

 

_ 41 _____ Stargazer (9) _______ 41.62 ____ 29.82 (15) ______________17 47*21*51*

_ 42 ____ DiagonalRedLine (9)_ 41.43 ____ 41.14 (42) ______________11 22 39^54*

_ 43 _____ I Remember Atl 252_40.57____ 47.76 (47) ______________ 45 42 49 09

_ 44 _____ Stewfox (7) _________ 36.37 ____ 41.80 (43) ______________24 46*47^41^

_ 45 _____ summer 18 _________ 36.06 ____ 44.16 (45) _____________ 35 52 38 34

_ 46 _____ Kirkcaldy Weather(7)_31.11____ 26.97 ( 3) ______________63^31*50^33

_ 47 _____ Norrance (7) _________27.28 ____ 37.91 (39) ____________ 40 14 57^ ----

_ 48 _____ John88b (4) __________26.27 ____ 28.28 _________________ 39*---- ---- 23*

_ 49 _____ Earthshine (6) _______ 25.95 ____ 29.24 _________________ 65^50*10*56^

_ 50 _____ Coldest Winter (6) ___ 20.82 ____ 35.27 _________________ 58*49*32*----

_ 51 _____ BlastFromThePast (6) 18.66 ____ 49.33 _________________ 38 53^53^52^

_ 52 _____ sunny_vale (4) _______ 18.43 ____ 30.58 _________________ ---- ---- 46^29

_ 53 _____ Let It Snow! (4) _______17.75 ____ 43.35 _________________ 53*39*---- ----

_ 54 _____ Booferking (2) ________17.34 ____ 16.60 _________________ 51^---- ---- 39^

_ 55 _____ Kasim Awan (2) _______16.68 ____ 37.25 _________________ 19* ---- ---- ----

_ 56 _____ Leo97t (3) _____________15.94 ____ 33.70 _________________ 22 ---- ---- ----

_ 57 _____ stevew (3) _____________14.14 ____ 40.63 _________________ 31 ---- ---- ----

_ 58 _____ Durham Weather (2) __13.10 ____ 23.55 _________________ 59^44^---- ----

_ 59 ___ WeatherEnthusiast91(2)_12.30 ____ 22.30 _________________ ---- ---- 52^37^

_ 60 _____ Mapantz (1) ____________ 9.82 _____ 3.60 _________________ 42^ ---- ---- ----

_ 61 _____ Pegg24 (1) ______________9.79 ____ 22.70 _________________  ---- 40^---- ----

_ 62 _____ Polar Maritime (1) ______8.98 _____ 3.70 _________________ ---- ---- 33^ ----

_ 63 _____ AWD (1) ________________ 8.94 _____ 5.40 _________________ 49^ ---- ---- ----

_ 64 _____ federico (1) _____________ 8.44 _____ 4.90 _________________ ---- ---- ---- 43^

_ 65 _____ legritter (1) ______________8.06 ____ 27.80 _________________51^---- ---- ----

_t66 _____ Thunder Athlete (3) ____ 7.84 ____ 48.77 _________________---- 45*56^---- 

_t66 _____ B87 (1) __________________ 7.84 _____ 7.50 _________________---- ---- 37^----

_ 68 _____ Typhoon John (1) _______ 7.70 _____ 8.60 __________________54^---- ---- ----

_ 69 ___ ThunderyWintryShowers (1) __ 7.20 ____ 8.60 __________________---- ---- 41^ ----

_ 70 _____ Sky High (1) _____________7.11 _____14.10 _________________---- ---- ---- 47^

_ 71 _____ Dunstable Snow (1) ____ 6.93 ____ 55.70 __________________56^---- ---- ----

_ 72 _____ Downburst (1) __________ 6.02 ____ 36.20 _________________ 57^---- ---- ----

_ 73 _____ Tidal Wave (1) __________ 4.93 ____ 16.90 _________________ ---- ---- ---- 49^

_ 74 _____ sukayuonsensnow (1) __ 4.55 ____ 43.80 _________________ 60^---- ---- ----

_ 75 _____ sundog (2) ______________ 4.31 ____ 67.75 _________________ 61*---- ---- ----

_ 76 _____ froze were the days (1) _ 3.80 ____ 21.40 _________________ 62^---- ---- ----

_ 77 _____ DeepSnow (1) ___________1.40 ____ 45.50 _________________ ---- 55^---- ----

_ 78 _____ East Lancs Rain (1) ______0.40 ____ 57.50 _________________ ---- ---- 54^----

_ 79 _____ Chilly Milly (1) ___________0.20 ____113.80 _________________---- ---- ---- 55^

_ 80 _____ Ross A Hemphill (1) _____0.06 ____ 61.40 __________________66^---- ---- ----

_ 81 _____Stephen W (1) ___________ 0.05 ____ 65.80 __________________67^---- ---- ----

======================================================================

note: in the seasonal rankings

* entered 2/3 months

^ entered 1/3 months

=======================================================================

Rank __ Normal (or con) ___ Points ___ Avg error (rank) ___________ Seasonal ranks

(1.9) ___ 1991-2020 ________ 72.45 ____ 28.05 (6.9) _________________ 02 05 38 06

(2.5) ___ 1992-2021 ________ 70.38 ____ 28.18 (7.5) _________________

(2.9) ___ 1981-2010 ________ 69.36 ____ 28.66 (9.9) _________________

(3.8) ___ consensus ________ 67.97 ____ 28.83 (11.9) ________________ 16 07 21 18

I have only shown the seasonal ranks for one normal (1991-2020) and for our consensus.

Basically the forecasters' consensus only showed relative skill in summer (ranked 21st while normal ranked 38th). 

Otherwise our consensus did not improve on the 1991-2020 normals although following them in all three of the other seasons

kept pace with relatively good results. 

____________

(a) Daniel* had 3.7 points and an error of 8.8 mm for a May forecast that was too late for entry (4th) and the score assigned includes four days late penalty, would change ranks to 20th in both points and average error.

Edited December 5, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[emmett garland]

Well done everyone in this competition ,I m so happy to finish in 19th as its tricky enough unless you have the magic ball (feb 91) (blizzard) .Thank you Roger and look forward to the new year and hope a top 10 finish next round .This competition has become a passion and just love the way as a passionate weather enthusiast albeit a little rusty I can compete with the best of all you guys.. Roll on 2023 ..

[emmett garland]

13 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

Congratulations to freeze who is our annual contest winner. Feb1991Blizzard fought hard to the end to defend his title won last year and finished second. Reef kept climbing up the standings to finish third. 

In the autumn seasonal points race, the top three were shillitocettwo (28.06), J10 (26.67) and Weather26 (21.22). 

The other three seasonal winners were (winter) freeze (28.73), (spring) the PIT (22.58) and (summer) the PIT again (25.93).

Any very small changes required from November table entry difference from tracker (158.5 mm) will be edited in here, and if there are any significant changes they will be noted, or this will change to "no significant changes occurred." November EWP (and CET) scoring ranks can be seen in the table posted on 1st Dec with CET scoring ranks and best combined info. 

Thanks for supporting the EWP contest. After the 5th I will post a link to the supporting excel file which contains interesting data such as your all-time scoring, numbers of contests won over five years, and a tabulation of best combined forecasts.

 

==== <<<< EWP CONTEST FINAL SCORING (updated estimates) >>>> ====

Some minor changes will be edited into this post on 5th Dec if the November EWP changes from tracker total of 158.5 mm. 

Rank ___ Forecaster _________ Points ____ Avg err (rank) ________ Seasonal ranks

_ 01 _____ Freeze _____________ 77.39 ____ 23.40 ( 1) _____________ 01 26 06 26

_ 02 _____ Feb1991Blizzard ___ 71.64 ____ 27.68 ( 6) _____________ 02 17 05 31

_ 03 _____ Reef ________________ 68.84 ____ 27.38 ( 5) _____________ 37 07 08 12

_ 04 _____ Polar Gael __________ 67.60 ____ 31.52 (22) _____________09 13 17 21 

_ 05 _____ the PIT _____________ 66.51 ____ 29.72 (14) _____________ 20 01 01 53

_ 06 _____ Mr Maunder _______ 66.37 ____ 27.18 ( 4) ______________16 18 25 05

_ 07 _____ J 10 _________________66.16 ____ 28.75 (11) _____________ 13 34 34 02

_ 08 _____ Mulzy _______________66.13 ____ 28.27 ( 8.)______________ 27 12 02 40

_ 09 _____ weather-history ____ 65.79 ____ 28.32 ( 9) ______________ 55 03 12 10

_ 10 _____ bobd29 _____________65.64 ____ 30.01 (16) ______________10 04 31 27

_ 11 _____ DR(S)NO ____________63.69 ____ 30.38 (19) ______________23 23 18 15

_ 12 _____ Don ________________ 63.45 ____ 30.57 (20) ______________30 11 24 13

_ 13 _____ Roger J Smith ______ 62.87 ____ 28.82 (12) ______________ 06 31 16 30

_ 14 _____ Neil N ______________ 62.26 ____ 28.65 (10) ______________ 29 08 28 17

_ 15 _____ rwtwm _____________ 60.62 ____ 31.10 (21) ______________ 32 25 13 22

_ 16 _____ February1978 ______ 60.44 ____ 30.23 (17) ______________ 08 48 20 04

_ 17 _____ virtualsphere _______ 60.29 ____ 30.35 (18) ______________ 26 10 36 06

_ 18 _____ Midlands Ice Age ___ 58.97 ____ 33.53 (28) ______________ 28 43 09 18

_ 19 _____ Emmett Garland ____58.47 ____ 33.67 (29) ______________ 41 24 15 19

_ 20 _____ seaside60 (11) ______ 58.07 ____ 32.06 (24) ______________ 05 30*07 50

 

_ 21 ___ prolongedSnowLover (11) _ 57.96 ____ 29.35 (13) ______________ 47 06 22*25

_ 22 _____ shillitocettwo (11) ___57.59 ____ 36.46 (34) ______________ 64 36 19*01

_ 23 _____ Ed Stone ____________ 56.97 ____ 32.18 (25) ______________ 14 15 30 32

_ 24 _____ SLEETY (9) ___________56.92 ____ 28.06 ( 7) _______________ 12 16 35^24*

_ 25 _____ Jonboy ______________ 55.54 ____ 32.41 (26) ______________ 36 51 04 20

_ 26 _____ daniel* (11) _________ 54.46 ____ 32.76 (27) ______________ 21 38*11 45 _ (a)

_ 27 _____ dancerwithwings ___ 54.29 ____ 31.77 (23) ______________ 04 27 27 44

_ 28 _____ summer blizzard ___ 53.45 ____ 37.53 (36) ______________ 34 35 29 16

_ 29 _____ davehsug ___________ 53.23 ____ 36.53 (35) ______________ 18 19 51 11

_ 30 _____ Frigid _______________ 52.59 ____ 40.55 (41) ______________ 33 02 48 28

_ 31 _____ Wold Topper (9) ____ 52.51 ____ 24.41 ( 2) ______________ ---- 05 03 38

_ 32 _____ noname_weather __ 52.38 ____ 35.35 (32) ______________ 25 37 44 07

_ 33 _____ Weather 26 ________ 51.70 ____ 42.88 (44) ______________ 15 33 55 03

_ 34 _____ summer8906 (9) ___ 50.28 ____ 33.81 (30) ______________ 44*20 40*14*

_ 35 _____ syed2878 __________ 49.13 ____ 37.83 (37) ______________ 46 09 23 46

_ 36 _____ Godber1 ___________ 48.39 ____ 38.15 (38) ______________ 03 54 14 48

_ 37 _____ Stationary Front ___ 47.64 ____ 36.05 (33) ______________ 48 29 43 08

_ 38 _____ Jeff C (10) __________ 47.61 ____ 34.79 (31) ______________ 07 28 45*42* 

_ 39 _____ SteveB (10) ________ 42.83 ____ 45.39 (46) ______________ 42 21*42*36

_ 40 _____ snowray ___________ 42.20 ____ 38.63 (40) ______________ 50 41 26 35

 

_ 41 _____ Stargazer (9) _______ 41.62 ____ 29.82 (15) ______________17 47*21*51*

_ 42 ____ DiagonalRedLine (9)_ 41.43 ____ 41.11 (42) ______________11 22 39^54*

_ 43 _____ I Remember Atl 252 _40.57____ 47.78 (47) ______________45 42 49 09

_ 44 _____ Stewfox (7) _________ 36.58 ____ 41.76 (43) ______________24 46*47^41^

_ 45 _____ summer 18 _________ 36.06 ____ 44.13 (45) _____________ 35 52 38 34

_ 46 _____ Kirkcaldy Weather(7)_31.11____ 26.93 ( 3) ______________63^31*50^33

_ 47 _____ Norrance (7) _________27.28 ____ 37.91 (39) ____________ 40 14 57^ ----

_ 48 _____ John88b (4) __________26.27 ____ 28.20 _________________ 39*---- ---- 23*

_ 49 _____ Earthshine (6) _______ 25.95 ____ 29.24 _________________ 65^50*10*56^

_ 50 _____ Coldest Winter (6) ___ 20.82 ____ 35.27 _________________ 58*49*32*----

_ 51 _____ BlastFromThePast (6) 18.66 ____ 49.29 _________________ 38 53^53^52^

_ 52 _____ sunny_vale (4) _______ 18.43 ____ 30.50 _________________ ---- ---- 46^29

_ 53 _____ Let It Snow! (4) _______17.75 ____ 43.35 _________________ 53*39*---- ----

_ 54 _____ Booferking (2) ________17.34 ____ 16.45 _________________ 51^---- ---- 39^

_ 55 _____ Kasim Awan (2) _______16.68 ____ 37.25 _________________ 19* ---- ---- ----

_ 56 _____ Leo97t (3) _____________15.94 ____ 33.70 _________________ 22 ---- ---- ----

_ 57 _____ stevew (3) _____________14.14 ____ 40.63 _________________ 31 ---- ---- ----

_ 58 _____ Durham Weather (2) __13.10 ____ 23.55 _________________ 59^44^---- ----

_ 59 ___ WeatherEnthusiast91(2)_12.30 ____ 22.30 _________________ ---- ---- 52^37^

_ 60 _____ Mapantz (1) ____________ 9.82 _____ 3.60 _________________ 42^ ---- ---- ----

_ 61 _____ Pegg24 (1) ______________9.79 ____ 22.70 _________________  ---- 40^---- ----

_ 62 _____ Polar Maritime (1) ______8.98 _____ 3.70 _________________ ---- ---- 33^ ----

_ 63 _____ AWD (1) ________________ 8.94 _____ 5.40 _________________ 49^ ---- ---- ----

_ 64 _____ federico (1) _____________ 8.44 _____ 4.90 _________________ ---- ---- ---- 43^

_ 65 _____ legritter (1) ______________8.06 ____ 27.80 _________________51^---- ---- ----

_t66 _____ Thunder Athlete (3) ____ 7.84 ____ 48.77 _________________---- 45*56^---- 

_t66 _____ B87 (1) _________________ 7.84 _____ 7.50 __________________---- ---- 37^----

_ 68 _____ Typhoon John (1) _______ 7.70 _____ 8.60 __________________54^---- ---- ----

_ 69 ___ ThunderyWintryShowers (1) _7.20 ____ 8.60 __________________---- ---- 41^ ----

_ 70 _____ Sky High (1) _____________7.11 _____14.10 _________________---- ---- ---- 47^

_ 71 _____ Dunstable Snow (1) ____ 6.93 ____ 55.70 __________________56^---- ---- ----

_ 72 _____ Downburst (1) __________ 6.02 ____ 36.20 _________________ 57^---- ---- ----

_ 73 _____ Tidal Wave (1) __________ 4.93 ____ 16.90 _________________ ---- ---- ---- 49^

_ 74 _____ sukayuonsensnow (1) __ 4.55 ____ 43.80 _________________ 60^---- ---- ----

_ 75 _____ sundog (2) ______________ 4.31 ____ 67.75 _________________ 61*---- ---- ----

_ 76 _____ froze were the days (1) _ 3.80 ____ 21.40 _________________ 62^---- ---- ----

_ 77 _____ DeepSnow (1) ___________1.40 ____ 45.50 _________________ ---- 55^---- ----

_ 78 _____ East Lancs Rain (1) ______0.40 ____ 57.50 _________________ ---- ---- 54^----

_ 79 _____ Chilly Milly (1) ___________0.20 ____113.50 _________________---- ---- ---- 55^

_ 80 _____ Ross A Hemphill (1) _____0.06 ____ 61.40 __________________66^---- ---- ----

_ 81 _____Stephen W (1) ___________ 0.05 ____ 65.80 __________________67^---- ---- ----

======================================================================

note: in the seasonal rankings

* entered 2/3 months

^ entered 1/3 months

=======================================================================

Rank __ Normal (or con) ___ Points ___ Avg error (rank) ___________ Seasonal ranks

(1.9) ___ 1991-2020 ________ 72.45 ____ 27.73 (7.2) _________________ 02 05 38 06

(2.5) ___ 1992-2021 ________ 70.38 ____ 27.87 (7.7) _________________

(2.9) ___ 1981-2010 ________ 69.36 ____ 28.34 (9.9) _________________

(3.8) ___ consensus ________ 67.97 ____ 28.51 (11.8) ________________ 16 07 21 18

I have only shown the seasonal ranks for one normal (1991-2020) and for our consensus.

Basically the forecasters' consensus only showed relative skill in summer (ranked 21st while normal ranked 38th). 

Otherwise our consensus did not improve on the 1991-2020 normals although following them in all three of the other seasons

kept pace with relatively good results. 

____________

(a) Daniel* had 3.7 points and an error of 8.8 mm for a May forecast that was too late for entry (4th) and the score assigned includes four days late penalty, would change ranks to 20th in both points and average error.

oooops freeze

[J10]

Scores for the CET comp will be updated tomorrow.

[feb1991blizzard]

Well done @Freeze When @Roger J Smith said i needed 97 mm or below, i thought i might have a a sniff, but from very early on i knew my forecast was going to bust on the low side. i did think a drier cold spell would happen but more likely Dec, where i went wrong was the showery bands of rain from the Sw deposited loads more than i thought - classic eg was here - its been very wet.

[Roger J Smith]

Feb1991Blizzard, your two-year run has been quite remarkable and in fact in tracking all-time results in the five years we've been doing EWP, you have a higher points average per forecast than anyone with more than 36/60 possible forecasts. I'm going off memory here but I think you started in after year one and have been active for maybe 49/60, your average is a little over 6/10 whereas among the five-year regulars the best averages are a little lower than 6/10. (of course the average of all contest entrants over time is very close to 5.0) ... You have to go down to some much lower frequency entrants to find a higher average than your own (eventually some do get up above 7). Singularity and Thundery Wintry Showers also have higher averages than a trend curve for all numbers of contests entered. 

The all-time points lead is naturally going to be among those with 59 or 60 contests entered, and Reef, Don and Mulzy have been exchanging that lead through the past several months. I will post more about this a few days after the CET results, going to clear the stage now for that main event of our contest wrap-up. 

[J10]

Files

Summary Nov 2022 Summary.pdf

Excel Nov 22 CET.xlsx

Monthly

No one got 9.2c spot on, with 3 players 0.1c out.

I remember Atlantic 252, reef and davehsug

Seasonal

Very little change here with
Reef staying 1st,
Roger J Smith staying 2nd
I remember Atlantic 252 3rd (from 4th) and
virtualsphere 4th (from 3rd)

Overall

Very close at the top.

with the final Top 3

1. richie3846 (from 2nd)
2. Freeze (from 1st)
3. reef (stays 3rd)

However, it was so close at the top, reef would have won if the CET was 9.1c.

Note - there is a new attachment giving all the 2021/22 scores in Summary. Nov 2022 Summary Overall.pdf

[J10]

Thanks to all those competing in the CET competition and also to Roger for running the Rainfall version.

[Freeze]

My first year competing in the competition and have come first in the ewp, and second in cet. I'm amazed! Has there ever been anyone to come first in both?

[Roger J Smith]

2 hours ago, Freeze said:

My first year competing in the competition and have come first in the ewp, and second in cet. I'm amazed! Has there ever been anyone to come first in both?

There have been some similar results, these are the people who managed top ten outcomes in both during the five contest years for the EWP (I may edit in one or two more in 7th-10th range but these include the top combined). 

2021-22: Freeze 2nd CET and 1st EWP, Reef 3rd in both, Feb91Blizzard 8th CET, 2nd EWP, PIT 10th CET and 5th EWP.

2020-21: Feb1991Blizzard finished 6th in CET and 1st in EWP. Reef 4th and 9th. (this year Reef 3rd in both).

2019-20: mb018538 finished 1st in CET and 3rd in EWP. Mulzy 8th and 1st, Stationary Front 3rd and 8th, Reef 7th in both.

2018-19: Don 4th CET and 3rd EWP, EdStone 5th and 6th, BFTV 11th and 1st, Stationary Front 2nd and 10th, weather-history 6, 7.

2017-18: Don 2nd in CET and 3rd in EWP, Singularity 8th in CET and 1st in EWP, Norrance 3rd and 9th, Reef 9th and 8th.

_________________

so the answer is, best combined so far by one (see 2019-20 for closest outcome to yours)

[Roger J Smith]

While checking the above material, I had a chance to go back further in the matter of how our CET and EWP consensus values have performed. Earlier I mentioned that the previous contest year resembled this one, and in fact all five of these most recent years have shown similar trends with average consensus errors around 0.8 C and normals often closer to the 1.0 to 1.2 range (for absolute errors). In the 2018-2019 contest year (basically 2019) however consensus and the two normals all had similar results near 0.9 C.

In most cases our consensus does even better with EWP than with CET, and in all five years a consensus forecast every month would finish around 20th place in annual CET standings, give or take. So there appears to be no change in this even as people come and go. I think there's a fairly narrow limit in terms of probability statistics as to where consensus could finish. I am involved in contests on two other sites (Ireland, USA) and consensus finishes well up the tables in those contests also. I don't think the math would allow consensus to do worse than mid-table in any month, but in fact it rarely does worse than one-third of the way down in any month, and has on some occasions in some contests finished ahead of all forecasters.

As to how normal values might do, quite often normal finishes near the bottom of forecast contests at end of a year, and usually in the bottom third. However, for EWP contests normal seems to do quite well. In the Irish contest I mentioned, we track the category scoring for temps, precip, sunshine and a random bonus question, as all these elements are part of that contest. (you'll find it on boards.ie weather forum if you don't already know about it) ... Normal does better on sunshine and random bonus questions (which are usually over the event horizon things like temps on Christmas Day to be given at start of Dec), and in fact Normal was leading in that bonus category most of this year. Other contests that I either run or enter here and there all run Jan to Dec although I have a four seasons feature in most of them that runs like Net-weather's contest year. 

The reason why normal does worse with temps than precip or sunshine is probably that some months give strong indications of being above or below normal so that normal will score worse than most forecasters there; precip can change sign very quickly relative to temperature (recall Sep 2021 I think, all the heavy rain in last ten days, catching most of the field out, and this sort of thing happens several times a year, more often and in a larger push than with temperature). Sun % (only asked in Ireland so far) seems to have a habit of returning to normal fairly quickly whatever the first ten days indicate. Most of the guesses and outcomes have been in the range of 80 to 120 per cent so normal is bound to do quite well in that situation.

In any contests, I determine consensus from a median, which is probably because I started doing contest stats before I had much occasion to use excel files, and median is easier to work out than mean. However, unless there are odd outliers, median and mean (average if you prefer) are often the same or within 0.1 deg or 1.0 mm. As we used to get a few odd outliers, I prefer median anyway. 

In case you aren't familiar with statistics, median of a set of values is the middle value. If you have an odd number of values, it is defined as ((first + last)/2) value (example, for 59 entries, 30th ranked is the median), and if you have an even number of values, it is the average of the two middle values (example, 60 entries, median is average of 30th and 31st ranked values). I often check the CET median against the average when J10 posts his files and they are rarely more than 0.1 out.

Edited December 4, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[richie3846]

I enjoyed entering the CET competition for this year, I didn't expect to win of course. No skill involved, just a consistent approach, slightly above the latest 30 year average. The only deviation from this was during the summer when it was obvious that we were surrounded by some major heat, so I went a little higher there.

I thought that the autumn was going to scupper my chances at taking the number one spot, with September turning cooler in the second half, and November being in the exceptionally mild category, but I just about scraped in, with my success riding on the very good luck I enjoyed in the first half of the year. 

What an extraordinary year this has been, temperature and precipitation in extremis. I live in the south of the CET area, and we've endured incredible extremes this year, with heat and drought on a scale matching and maybe exceeding 1976, and possibly even 1995 locally. It's a year not likely to be forgotten for a while that's for sure. 

Thanks to Roger for his exceptional knowledge, I've not entered the new competition, but I will still be reading Roger's updates on what is the most informative weather record on the planet.

[Roger J Smith]

Annual contest results _ Combined CET and EWP ranks

This table lists in order of average ranking, the full-time participants only (as CET ranks are only awarded to 10/12 entries, Stargazer, summer8906, Wold Topper and SLEETY at 9/12 do not have a rank for CET so I show them at their EWP ranking in the table; those who only enter CET are listed in the table also, in their CET rank. If sunny_vale, john88b, BFTP, Let it Snow, Kirkcaldy Weather, stewfox,  Coldest Winter, Norrance, Earthshine in the 4 to 8 forecast range look in, I haven't got enough ranking data to include you but relative to the number of forecasts you submitted, you're doing reasonably well in EWP, but I can only do these rank comparisons for the 9/12 or more entries anyone with 8 or fewer finished below 45th EWP. 

One thing I notice this contest year is that many of the CET/EWP ranks are converging on similar values, which may indicate something.

 

Rank __ Forecaster _________ CET _ EWP __ avg _________ CET or EWP only ranks 

_ 01 ___ Freeze _______________ 2 ___ 1 ____ 1.5 _________ richie3846 (1st CET)

_ 02 ___ Reef __________________3 ___ 3 ____ 3.0 

_ 03 ___ Feb1991Blizzard _____ 8 ___ 2 ____ 5.0 

_ 04 ___ The PIT ______________10 ___ 5 ____ 7.5 

_ 05 ___ February1978 ________4 ___16 ___ 10.0 

_ 06 ___ J 10 __________________14 ___ 7 ___ 10.5 _________ Summer Sun (11th CET)

_ 07 ___ DR(S)NO ____________ 13 ___11 ___12.0

_t08 ___ Mr Maunder _________19 ___ 6 ___12.5

_t08 ___ bobd29 ______________15 ___10 ___12.5

_ 10 ___ seaside60 ____________6 ___ 20 ___ 13.0

_ 11 ___ Polar Gael ___________ 23 ___ 4 ___ 13,5

_ 12 ___ Don __________________16 ___12 ___14.0

_t13 ___ Ed Stone _____________ 7 ___23 ___ 15.0

_t13 ___ Roger J Smith ________17 ___13 ___15.0

_ 15 ___ dancerwithwings _____9 ___27 ___ 18.0 _______ Mark Bayley (18th CET)

_ 16 ___ virtualsphere ________20 ___17 ___ 18.5

_ 17 ___ Stationary Front ______ 5 ___37 ___ 21.0 ________ damianslaw (21st CET)

_ 18 __ prolongedSnowLover _24 ___21 ___22.5

_ 19 ___ Mulzy ________________ 38 ___ 8 ___23.0

_ 20 ___ Emmett Garland ____ 28 ___19 ___23.5

_ 21 ___ weather-history ______39 ___ 9 ___24.0 ____________ SLEETY (24th EWP 9/12)

_t22 ___ Midlands Ice Age ____ 33 ___18 ___25.5

_t22 ___ SteveB _______________12 ___39 ___25.5 _________ Duncan McAlister (27th CET)

_t24 ___ NeilN ________________ 42 ___14 ___28.0

_t24 ___ rwtwm _______________41 ___15 ___28.0

_ 26 ___ Summer Blizzard ____ 30 ___28 ___29.0

_ 27 ___ noname_weather ___ 27 ___32 ___29.5

_ 28 ___ davehsug ____________32 ___29 ___30.5

_t29 ___ Weather26 __________ 29 ___33 ___31.0 ___________ Wold Topper (31st EWP 9/12)

_t29 ___ Shillitocettwo ________40 ___22 ___31.0

_t31 ___ I Remember Atl252 __22 ___43 ___32.5

_t31 ___ Frigid ________________35 ___30 ___32.5

_ 33 ___ snowray _____________ 26 ___40 ___33.0

_ 34 ___ Godber 1 ____________ 43 ___26 ___34.5

_ 35 ___ jonboy _______________44 ___25 ___34.5 ___________ summer8906 (34th EWP 9/12)

_ 36 ___ Summer 18 __________25 ___45 ___35.0

_ 37 ___ daniel* _____________45 ___26 ___35.5

_ 38 ___ syed2878 ____________37 ___35 ___36.0 ______ Walsall Wood Snow (36th CET)

_ 39 ___ DiagonalRedLine_____34 ___42 ___38.0 ______ Kentish Man (46th CET)

_ 40 ___ Jeff C _________________47 ___38 ___42.5 ____________ Stargazer (41st EWP 9/12)