November 2022 C.E.T. and EWP contests -- final month of the 2021-22 competitions

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield remains at 9.7C +1.3C above normal. Rainfall 76.9mm 87.1% of the monthly average.

Very likely to go beyond 100mm which a few days ago looked unlikely unless we got a slowing front which we did get.  looks like we may get a repeat Monday night into Tuesday.

[Roger J Smith]

EWP at around 106 mm (was 104.6 after 17th), looks set to add at least 40 or 45 mm to that, ending around 150 mm. 

CET will drop steadily next five days to around 9 C then will begin to slow its decline in a milder interval after 25th. Likely finish in the 8.5 to 9.0 zone. 

Will be opening up a new contest year tonight (UK time) so look for that in the morning. 

[Don]

3 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

EWP at around 106 mm (was 104.6 after 17th), looks set to add at least 40 or 45 mm to that, ending around 150 mm. 

CET will drop steadily next five days to around 9 C then will begin to slow its decline in a milder interval after 25th. Likely finish in the 8.5 to 9.0 zone. 

Will be opening up a new contest year tonight (UK time) so look for that in the morning. 

Interestingly close to November 2009.

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, Don said:

Interestingly close to November 2009.

Yes strong parallels with how this month and that one turned out!

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down 9.6C +1.3C above normal. Rainfall 81mm 91.7% of the monthly average.

A slow drift down for the next four days then I expect it to halt.  Our warmest November is 1994 with 9.3C so this month will certainly get 2nd place 2011 with 8.9C. Unless the unlikely beast from the east arrives much earlier in lala land. Pity we missed the cold pool of air which skirted to the north east of us.

19mm to go for 100mm mark much needed rain.

[Summer Sun]

10.3c to the 19th

3.8c above the 61 to 90 average
2.5c above the 81 to 10 average

[Summer Sun]

10.1c to the 20th

3.7c above the 61 to 90 average
2.4c above the 81 to 10 average

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

10.1c to the 20th

3.7c above the 61 to 90 average
2.4c above the 81 to 10 average

Scorchio 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 9.5C +1.3C above average. Rainfall 81.9mm 92.8% of the monthly average. 

Looking like we will now drop below 9C so we may even slip into 3rd place for warmest Novembers.

[Roger J Smith]

The EWP is up to at least 130 mm now (115 after 20 days, quite wet in many areas, est 15 mm for 21st) ... and with at least 25-30 mm  more expected this last week of the month (possibly 40+), I feel confident about posting preliminary scoring since the second highest forecast for the month was 155 mm. Look for that later today or if I find it slow-going, tomorrow. A lot of aspects of the annual contest are already settled no matter what happens from here to end of the month so I will just keep making minor adjustments to this scoring post to keep the stage cleared for the CET results at the end of play. 

[Roger J Smith]

As mentioned in my earlier post, the EWP scores can now only change very slightly as the November EWP drives its way past every forecast but one, and that one (194 mm from I Remember Atlantic 252) is already scoring fairly well at the provisional estimate of 155 mm, could score a bit better if the total runs up to around 168 mm at which point it would be second for November, while a value above 174.5 mm would move that to first. In the following table of annual scoring, you'll find your points and ranking, followed by average error and another ranking for that (if you entered 7/12 or more). Finally, you'll see four more ranks which refer to your four seasonal outcomes if you participated at all in those seasons. As to the November scoring, you can get an estimate on that from the table of entries on page 3, with the exception of the highest forecast, the rest are scored pretty much in the order you see them, and the scoring levels set at .21. At the end of play when these November details are ironed out, there will also be a link to the excel file that supports all this contest scoring. Around 6-7 Dec, when I expect most of the CET scoring discussion to be over, I will have a few extra comments to add from my tracking of all-time scoring over five years, best combined forecast data etc.

This "very nearly final" scoring table will be adjusted whenever a new provisional total for NOV is established, but will be left here until around 2 Dec when it will migrate to a new post on that occasion. 

(in the table, seasonal ranks refer to winter 2021-22, spring 2022, summer 2022 and autumn 2022 point totals) ... any asterisks in this section will refer to missed months within seasons. ... the total number of months entered for each forecaster is assumed to be 12 unless a number appears after forecaster name in brackets which would be the actual number of months entered).

 

==== <<<< EWP CONTEST FINAL SCORING (estimates) >>>> ====

Rank ___ Forecaster _________ Points ____ Avg err (rank) ________ Seasonal ranks

_ 01 _____ Freeze _____________ 77.39 ____ 23.11 ( 1) _____________ 01 26 06 26

_ 02 _____ Feb1991Blizzard ___ 71.64 ____ 27.39 ( 6) _____________ 02 17 05 31

_ 03 _____ Reef ________________ 69.05 ____ 27.09 ( 5) _____________ 37 07 08 10

_ 04 _____ Polar Gael __________ 67.60 ____ 31.23 (22) _____________09 13 17 22 

_ 05 _____ the PIT _____________ 66.51 ____ 29.43 (14) _____________ 20 01 01 53

_t06 _____ Mr Maunder _______ 66.37 ____ 26.89 ( 4) ______________16 18 25 05

_t06 _____ J 10 _________________66.37 ____ 28.46 (11) _____________ 13 34 34 02

_ 08 _____ Mulzy _______________66.13 ____ 27.98 ( 8.)______________ 27 12 02 40

_ 09 _____ weather-history ____ 65.79 ____ 28.03 ( 9) ______________ 55 03 12 11

_ 10 _____ bobd29 _____________65.64 ____ 29.72 (15) ______________10 04 31 27

_ 11 _____ DR(S)NO ____________63.69 ____ 30.09 (19) ______________23 23 18 14

_ 12 _____ Don ________________ 63.45 ____ 30.28 (20) ______________30 11 24 12

_ 13 _____ Roger J Smith ______ 62.87 ____ 28.53 (12) ______________ 06 31 16 30

_ 14 _____ Neil N ______________ 62.26 ____ 28.36 (10) ______________ 29 08 28 16

_ 15 _____ rwtwm _____________ 60.83 ____ 30.81 (21) ______________ 32 25 13 21

_ 16 _____ February1978 ______ 60.44 ____ 29.94 (16) ______________ 08 48 20 04

_ 17 _____ virtualsphere _______ 60.29 ____ 30.06 (17) ______________ 26 10 36 06

_ 18 _____ Midlands Ice Age ___ 58.97 ____ 33.24 (28) ______________ 28 43 09 18

_ 19 _____ Emmett Garland ____58.47 ____ 33.38 (29) ______________ 41 24 15 19

_ 20 _____ seaside60 (11) ______ 58.07 ____ 31.75 (24) ______________ 05 30*07 50

 

_ 21 ___ prolongedSnowLover (11)_57.96 ____ 29.04 (13) ______________ 47 06 22*25

_ 22 _____ shillitocettwo (11) ___57.59 ____ 36.15 (34) ______________ 64 36 19*01

_ 23 _____ SLEETY (9) ___________57.13 ____ 27.67 ( 7) _______________ 12 16 35^24*

_ 24 _____ Ed Stone ____________ 56.97 ____ 31.89 (25) ______________ 14 15 30 32

_ 25 _____ Jonboy ______________ 55.54 ____ 32.12 (26) ______________ 36 51 04 20

_ 26 _____ daniel* (11) _________ 54.46 ____ 32.45 (27) ______________ 21 38*11 45

_ 27 _____ dancerwithwings ___ 54.29 ____ 31.48 (23) ______________ 04 27 27 44

_ 28 _____ summer blizzard ___ 53.45 ____ 37.24 (36) ______________ 34 35 29 15

_ 29 _____ davehsug ___________ 53.44 ____ 36.24 (35) ______________ 18 19 51 09

_ 30 _____ Frigid _______________ 52.59 ____ 40.26 (41) ______________ 33 02 48 28

_ 31 _____ Wold Topper (9) ____ 52.51 ____ 24.02 ( 2) ______________ ---- 05 03 38

_ 32 _____ noname_weather __ 52.38 ____ 35.06 (32) ______________ 25 37 44 07

_ 33 _____ Weather 26 ________ 51.70 ____ 42.58 (44) ______________ 15 33 55 03

_ 34 _____ summer8906 (9) ___ 50.28 ____ 33.81 (30) ______________ 44*20 40*13*

_ 35 _____ syed2878 __________ 49.13 ____ 37.53 (37) ______________ 46 09 23 46

_ 36 _____ Godber1 ___________ 48.39 ____ 37.86 (38) ______________ 03 54 14 48

_ 37 _____ Stationary Front ___ 47.64 ____ 35.76 (33) ______________ 48 29 43 08

_ 38 _____ Jeff C (10) __________ 47.61 ____ 34.44 (31) ______________ 07 28 45*42* 

_ 39 _____ SteveB (10) ________ 42.83 ____ 45.04 (46) ______________ 42 21*42*36

_ 40 _____ snowray ___________ 42.20 ____ 38.34 (40) ______________ 50 41 26 35

 

_ 41 _____ Stargazer (9) _______ 41.62 ____ 29.82 (16) ______________17 47*21*51*

_ 42 ____ DiagonalRedLine (9)_ 41.43 ____ 40.72 (42) ______________11 22 39^54*

_ 43 _____ I Remember Atl 252 _39.10____ 48.08 (47) ______________45 42 49 17

_ 44 _____ Stewfox (7) _________ 36.58 ____ 41.26 (43) ______________24 46*47^41^

_ 45 _____ summer 18 _________ 36.06 ____ 43.84 (45) _____________ 35 52 38 34

_ 46 _____ Kirkcaldy Weather(7)_31.11____ 26.43 ( 3) ______________63^31*50^33

_ 47 _____ Norrance (7) _________27.28 ____ 37.91 (39) ____________ 40 14 57^ ----

_ 48 _____ John88b (4) __________26.27 ____ 27.33 _________________ 39*---- ---- 23*

_ 49 _____ Earthshine (6) _______ 25.95 ____ 29.24 _________________ 65^50*10*56^

_ 50 _____ Coldest Winter (6) ___ 20.82 ____ 35.27 _________________ 58*49*32*----

_ 51 _____ BlastFromThePast (6) 18.66 ____ 48.70 _________________ 38 53^53^52^

_ 52 _____ sunny_vale (4) _______ 18.43 ____ 29.63 _________________ ---- ---- 46^29

_ 53 _____ Let It Snow! (4) _______17.75 ____ 43.35 _________________ 53*39*---- ----

_ 54 _____ Booferking (2) ________17.34 ____ 14.70 _________________ 51^---- ---- 39^

_ 55 _____ Kasim Awan (2) _______16.68 ____ 37.25 _________________ 19* ---- ---- ----

_ 56 _____ Leo97t (3) _____________15.94 ____ 33.70 _________________ 22 ---- ---- ----

_ 57 _____ stevew (3) _____________14.14 ____ 40.63 _________________ 31 ---- ---- ----

_ 58 _____ Durham Weather (2) __13.10 ____ 23.55 _________________ 59^44^---- ----

_ 59 ___ WeatherEnthusiast91(2)_12.30 ____ 22.30 _________________ ---- ---- 52^37^

_ 60 _____ Mapantz (1) ____________ 9.82 _____ 3.60 _________________ 42^ ---- ---- ----

_ 61 _____ Pegg24 (1) ______________9.79 ____ 22.70 _________________  ---- 40^---- ----

_ 62 _____ Polar Maritime (1) ______8.98 _____ 3.70 _________________ ---- ---- 33^ ----

_ 63 _____ AWD (1) ________________ 8.94 _____ 5.40 _________________ 49^ ---- ---- ----

_ 64 _____ federico (1) _____________ 8.44 _____ 4.90 _________________ ---- ---- ---- 43^

_ 65 _____ legritter (1) ______________8.06 ____ 27.80 _________________51^---- ---- ----

_t66 _____ Thunder Athlete (3) ____ 7.84 ____ 48.77 _________________---- 45*56^---- 

_t66 _____ B87 (1) _________________ 7.84 _____ 7.50 __________________---- ---- 37^----

_ 68 _____ Typhoon John (1) _______ 7.70 _____ 8.60 __________________54^---- ---- ----

_ 69 ____ ThunderyWintryShowers (1) _7.20 _____ 8.60 __________________---- ---- 41^ ----

_ 70 _____ Sky High (1) _____________7.11 _____14.10 _________________---- ---- ---- 47^

_ 71 _____ Dunstable Snow (1) ____ 6.93 ____ 55.70 __________________56^---- ---- ----

_ 72 _____ Downburst (1) __________ 6.02 ____ 36.20 _________________ 57^---- ---- ----

_ 73 _____ Tidal Wave (1) __________ 4.93 ____ 16.90 _________________ ---- ---- ---- 49^

_ 74 _____ sukayuonsensnow (1) __ 4.55 ____ 43.80 _________________ 60^---- ---- ----

_ 75 _____ sundog (2) ______________ 4.31 ____ 67.75 _________________ 61*---- ---- ----

_ 76 _____ froze were the days (1) _ 3.80 ____ 21.40 _________________ 62^---- ---- ----

_ 77 _____ DeepSnow (1) ___________1.40 ____ 45.50 _________________ ---- 55^---- ----

_ 78 _____ East Lancs Rain (1) ______0.40 ____ 57.50 _________________ ---- ---- 54^----

_ 79 _____ Chilly Milly (1) ___________0.20 ____110.00 _________________---- ---- ---- 55^

_ 80 _____ Ross A Hemphill (1) _____0.06 ____ 61.40 __________________66^---- ---- ----

_ 81 _____Stephen W (1) ___________ 0.05 ____ 65.80 __________________67^---- ---- ----

======================================================================

note: in the seasonal rankings

* entered 2/3 months

^ entered 1/3 months

=======================================================================

(1.9) ___ 1991-2020 ________ 72.45 ____ 27.73 (7.2) _________________ 02 05 38 06

(2.5) ___ 1992-2021 ________ 70.38 ____ 27.87 (7.7) _________________

(2.9) ___ 1981-2010 ________ 69.36 ____ 28.34 (9.9) _________________

(3.8) ___ consensus ________ 67.97 ____ 28.51 (11.8) ________________ 16 07 21 18

I have only shown the seasonal ranks for one normal (1991-2020) and for our consensus.

Basically the forecasters' consensus only showed relative skill in summer (ranked 21st while normal ranked 38th). 

Otherwise our consensus did not improve on the 1991-2020 normals although following them in all three of the other seasons

kept pace with relatively good results. 

 

THIS SCORING SUMMARY WILL BE UPDATED AS REQUIRED 

... the only total points score that could change by more than one rank (0.21 points) is that of I Remember Atlantic 252 who could add some portion of 2.52 points, or could lose about 0.63 at most, if the outcome is a bit less than 155 mm, the scoring provisional value for November. 

[Summer Sun]

9.9c to the 21st

3.4c above the 61 to 90 average
2.3c above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 9.2C +1.1C above normal. Rainfall up to 101.3mm 114.7% of the monthly average.

The milder spell of weather maybe enough to keep the month as the 2nd warmest although it's going to be close though. Rainfall wise there's now a chance of getting into the top ten wettest Novembers after the last seven days produced 83mm of rain. if the next seven days do the same the month would make 2nd place.  Not very likely to happen though. I expect a lower end top ten finish now.

[Summer Sun]

9.8c to the 22nd

3.3c above the 61 to 90 average
2.3c above the 81 to 10 average

[TheOgre]

How cold does December need to be to make 2022 lose the record? It’s looking nearly certain that 2014 will be beaten.

Also how much of a monster cold wave would be needed to make 2022 the COLDEST year on record?

[Earthshine]

53 minutes ago, TheOgre said:

How cold does December need to be to make 2022 lose the record? It’s looking nearly certain that 2014 will be beaten.

Also how much of a monster cold wave would be needed to make 2022 the COLDEST year on record?

Need a December 2010 (~-5C below average) to avoid record warmest, -45C to beat coldest year on record

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 9C +1.0C above average. rainfall 101.9mm 115.4% of the monthly average.

[Don]

4 hours ago, Earthshine said:

Need a December 2010 (~-5C below average) to avoid record warmest, -45C to beat coldest year on record

That wouldn't help with the heating bills would it?!!

[Robert1981]

7 minutes ago, Don said:

That wouldn't help with the heating bills would it?!!

Mother nature will decide what happens!!

[Don]

17 minutes ago, Robert1981 said:

Mother nature will decide what happens!!

Yep and I don't think us Humans are in her good books at the moment!! 

[Summer Sun]

9.7c to the 23rd

3.2c above the 61 to 90 average
2.3c above the 81 to 10 average

[North-Easterly Blast]

On 23/11/2022 at 14:47, TheOgre said:

How cold does December need to be to make 2022 lose the record? It’s looking nearly certain that 2014 will be beaten.

Also how much of a monster cold wave would be needed to make 2022 the COLDEST year on record?

The most notable feature that I can see about the warmth of 2022 is that it has not contained one single colder than average month (that is even below the most modern 1991-2020 average let alone below the older averages), although we still have no idea yet on where December will end up.  The previous warmest calendar year on record, 2014, still contained one month (August) that was below the older averages (1961-90).  The second warmest year on record, 2006, still contained one month (March) that was below the older averages (1961-90), and also a February and an August that was at or in between the older 1961-90 and more modern (at the time) 1971-2000 averages.  The third warmest year on record, 2020, still contained one month (July) that was below the older 1961-90 average, and also a September, October and December that were in between the older 1961-90, 1971-2000 and the more modern 1981-2010 average.  The fourth warmest year on record, 2011, still contained a June, July and August that were all below the older 1961-90 average, and a January that was fractionally below the 1961-90 mean.

It is now looking increasingly likely that this November will see a CET finish over 9*C, which will be another significantly above average month.

The first ever 11*C+ yearly CET now looks highly likely unless December is very cold.  That said although not coinciding with a calendar year, the rolling 12 month mean CET has gone above 11*C on a few occasions in the past, most notably during 2006/2007, and it also went over 11*C at some point in 2018/2019 and I think that it also possibly went over 11*C for some period over late 2013 to late 2014, and also for some period in late 1994 to late 1995.

Something that I believe has never happened before, it is a truly remarkable statistic that 2022 has not had a single calendar month that was below even the most modern 1991-2020 average (which for most months are warmer than any older set of averages) let alone the older 1981-2010, 1971-2000 and 1961-90 averages, although as yet no-one can say how December will turn out.  At this stage the models are hinting that the first week of December is likely to be anticyclonic and dry although probably not overly cold, but beyond that no-one can say yet.

On top of no single below average month yet in 2022, we have actually not had a below average month (older 1961-90 average) since May 2021, and we have also not had a single month that was even below the most modern 1991-2020 average since August 2021.  That said I think that November 2021 was possibly just fractionally under the 1991-2020 mean.

Edited November 24, 2022 by North-Easterly Blast

[Don]

9 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

It is a truly remarkable statistic that 2022 has not had a single calendar month that was below even the most modern 1991-2020 average (which for most months are warmer than any older set of averages) let alone the older 1981-2010, 1971-2000 and 1961-90 averages, although as yet no-one can say how December will turn out.  At this stage the models are hinting that the first week of December is likely to be anticyclonic and dry although probably not overly cold, but beyond that no-one can say yet.

Yes, it makes you wonder what the 2001-2030 averages will be?!

[North-Easterly Blast]

1 hour ago, Don said:

Yes, it makes you wonder what the 2001-2030 averages will be?!

Well the incoming 2001-2030 averages for almost the first 22 years of them are already known, but the final ones will not be known until 2030.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 8.9C +1.0C above average. Rainfall at 111.4mm 126.2% of the monthly average.

Local forecast if they are correct show a downward pressure still.