November 2022 C.E.T. and EWP contests -- final month of the 2021-22 competitions

[The PIT]

Most remarkable feature of this year is how many times it's appeared in top ten for warmest months here five times so far and November will be the sixth. Yet it's never been the warmest month on record.

[Roger J Smith]

On 24/10/2022 at 04:26, Shillitocettwo said:

    Around the 24th an horrific storm rivalling the Great Storm of 1987 will tear through the UK bringing havoc in its wake. Very notably it will see an insane temperature swing from highs exceeding 20.C around noon which will be wiped out to give blizzards by teatime and 0.C conditions on a vicious northerly cold front quickly chasing the warm one. 

 

To be fair there was quite a vigorous frontal system today (24th) and it came with gusty winds, a temperature drop (on the order of 3-5 C deg) and thunderstorms with hail, so timing was good, intensity a bit over the top. 

On a different topic, my current estimates for the finish are very close to 9 C and 160 mm. The only unfinished business in the EWP (see previous post of mine for approximate scoring) would be where I Remember Atlantic252 (194 mm) finishes up and whether or not I need to shave points off any other totals. I think virtualsphere may have the best combined effort, several others were fairly good too. Reef looking very good to challenge for the CET title (from current third) I would guess. 

[Roger J Smith]

4 hours ago, The PIT said:

Most remarkable feature of this year is how many times it's appeared in top ten for warmest months here five times so far and November will be the sixth. Yet it's never been the warmest month on record.

So this post and several others got me to searching for the answer to this question, what year in the CET sustains the most impressive set of ranks, in terms of the highest rank number (what would be called "lowest ranked") of month is closest to the top. (the whole concept of highest and lowest rank is an invitation to confusion) ... 

This is what I found, assuming Nov 2022 finishes top ten in the CET v2.0 ranks. Although CET v2.0 produces rank distinctions based on second decimals not shown, I have worked around that by counting ranks as tied in one decimal regardless of where the table places the years in question. Here's the full list of how the past 22 years did, and also the eleven top contenders from before 2000 in terms of cold rank avoidance (the table lists all past years finishing higher than 2014) ... it turns out that 21 years are ahead of (or tied with) 2014 in terms of cold rank avoidance. So far no years are ahead of 2022. Dec 2022 would have to finish 4.3 or colder to lose this distinction (and allow 2017 to take over, or 2005 and 2017 if least extreme cold rank is used instead of the weakest warm rank). 

(note, the warm rank and cold rank would add to 365 for all but Dec (364), if no tied values. They add to 365-n where n is the number of years tied plus one, so for example, July 2020 (15.8) was tied 184th warmest and tied 167th coldest, which adds to 351, which tells us that 15 years were tied by applying that formula. Because of this factor, a year could theoretically be ahead on warmest ranks and behind on coldest ranks because there could be a different number of tied values, 2014 and 2007, 2018 were tied in one measure and not the other. ... Once again, "ties" in this table are based on one decimal, the actual rank in the v2.0 table may be anywhere in the range of tied values based on an unreported second decimal.

All other years' NOV ranks are okay as shown in current CET data table because warmest is left blank, except that any warmer than 9.0 are adjusted up by one on the assumption of 2022 finishing at 9.0. DEC ranks as shown in the data table used are adjusted on a default assumption that Dec 2022 finishes at a recent median value of 5.0. This can be edited to the actual situation later. This may not affect the table I have produced anyway, since no year has as its lowest rank a December that finished above 5.0. 

Ten years since 2000 have done better than 2014 in this statistic. Years from before 2000 that are better than 2014 in this list are 1761, 1828, 1832, 1834, 1911, 1914, 1934, 1943, 1949, 1982 and 1998. Next closest to the top  but not ahead of 2014, are 1730 (Dec t248 warmest), 1736 (May t251 warmest), 1733 (Oct t254 warmest), 1999 (June t254 warmest), 1953 (April t255 warmest), 1712 (Aug t256 warmest), and 1997 (Jan t256 warmest). In the 17th century the best was 1664 (t260 warmest Oct), and also honourable mention to 1779 which had the warmest February and the t266 warmest Dec (t95 coldest, 5 tied at 3.1 C), .

 

CET Cold Rank avoidance rankings

 

YEAR _____ "highest" rank _____ "lowest" rank __ (relative to coldest)

2022 _________ 3 (AUG) __________ t103 (JUN) ___t253 (10 tied)

2017 _________ 3 (MAR) __________ t164 (AUG) __t188 (14 tied)

2005 _________ 3 (OCT) __________ t172 (DEC)^__ t188 ( 6 tied)

2020 _________ t4 (APR) __________ t184 (JUL) ___ t167 (15 tied)

2002 __________ 8 (FEB) __________ t184 (JUL) ___ t167 (15 tied)

2019 _________ t9 (FEB) __________ t190 (JUN) __ t163 (13 tied) 

1949 ___________t3 (SEP) ____________t193 (MAR) ___ t163 (10 tied)

1834 ___________t4 (JAN) ____________ t199 (APR) ___ t152 (15 tied)

2004 _________t15 (AUG) _________t199 (JUL) ___ t161 (6 tied) 

2006 _________ 1 (JUL, SEP) ______ t203 (MAR)*__t139 (24 tied)

1761 ___________t41 (APR) ___________t218 (OCT) ___ t135 (13 tied)

1828 ___________t7 (DEC) ____________t219 (AUG) ___ t134 (13 tied)

1832 ___________t68 (JUN) ___________t231 (FEB) ___ t128 ( 7 tied)

1911 ___________ 8 (AUG) ___________ t231 (OCT) ___ t124 (11 tied) __ t223 (APR) _ t119 (24 tied)

1914 ___________t14 (FEB) __________ t232 (JUL) ____ t125 (9 tied)

1934 ___________ 2 (DEC) ____________t237 (MAR) ___ t125 (5 tied)

1998 ___________t4 (FEB) ____________ t237 (JUL) ____ t120 (9 tied)

1943 ___________t4 (APR) ____________ t239 (JUN) ___ t112 (15 tied)

2008 _________t9 (JAN) ___________ t239 (JUN) ___t112 (15 tied)  

1982 ___________t43 (NOV) __________t239 (JAN) ____t120 (7 tied)

2016 _________ 5 (SEP) ___________ t242 (NOV) __ t110 (14 tied)

1857 __________ t9 (DEC) ____________ t246 (JAN) ___ t115 ( 5 tied)

2014 _________ t6 (APR) __________ t246 (AUG) __ t110 (10 tied)

__ (only recent years since 2000 listed after this) __ 

2007 _________ 2 (APR) ___________ t246 (JUL) ___ t100 (20 tied)

2000 _________t24 (MAR) _________ t246 (JUL) ___ t100 (20 tied)

2001 _________ 1 (OCT) ___________ t248 (DEC) ___ t111 (7 tied)

2018 _________ 3 (JUL) _____________t249 (FEB) ____t110 (7 tied)  

2003 _________ t6 (AUG) ___________t254 (OCT) __ t106 (6 tied)

2011 _________ 1 (APR) ____________t264 (JUN) ____ t94 (8 tied)

2015 _________ 1 (DEC) ____________t266 (SEP) ____ t89 (11 tied)

2009 _________t12 (NOV) _________ t271 (DEC) ____ t81 (14 tied)

2012 _________ t4 (MAR) __________ t284 (JUN) ____ t68 (14 tied)

2021 _________ t6 (SEP) ___________ t316 (APR) ____ t40 (10 tied)

2013 _________ t8 (JUL) ____________t348 (MAR) ___ t14 (4 tied)

2010 _________t58 (JUL) __________ 363 (DEC) _____ 2 (none tied)

 

__________________________________________________

* Mar 2006 (5.0) appears in position 203rd warmest and is apparently, by second decimal, warmer than 23 other years on that value, while Feb 2006 (3.9) is in position 204th warmest but is tied 196th warmest, and tied 204th coldest so it's the coldest of 9 tied at 3.9. 

^ This entry would change to t171 if Dec 2022 is colder than 4.3 (and t189 coldest). It is also virtually identical to the ranks for Nov 2005 (6.1) which are already set at t171, t185 coldest, so in either case Nov has the edge for coldest rank.

____________________________________________

NOTES: The average of this statistic for all years is 317th warmest (which given ties would make the average coldest rank about 40th).

A non-calendar year which rivals 2022 would be May 1947 to Apr 1948 where the coldest rank was 127th warmest Feb 1948. 

However the non-calendar year May 2006 to April 2007 had a coldest rank of only 98th warmest (Aug 2006) and appears to be in top spot for non-calendar years; if Dec 2022 knocks the year out of first place then any of Sep-Dec 2021 to Aug-Nov 2022 will take over the value shown in the table.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Summer Sun]

9.6c to the 24th

3.2c above the 61 to 90 average
2.3c above the 81 to 10 average

[Roger J Smith]

EWP has reached about 135-140 mm and looks to add 20-30 mm more by end of month. 

CET likely to end around 9.2 C or 9.3 C.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 8.8C +1.0C above normal. Rainfall now at 122.4mm 138.6% of the monthly average.

November is now joint 10th wettest on record for us. The year looks like it will end up with average rainfall unless December reverses this and turns out to be dry.

[Roger J Smith]

The year can finish 11.3 or even 11.4 if December turns out milder than 6 C. 

[LetItSnow!]

3 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

The year can finish 11.3 or even 11.4 if December turns out milder than 6 C. 

To think that 40 years ago, the limit of what seemed to be possible was closer to 10.4 than 11.4. Bonkers really. Not entirely confident that December will turn out milder than 6 at the moment, but many years have proven that initial thoughts can turn out very, very wrong.

[Don]

1 hour ago, LetItSnow! said:

To think that 40 years ago, the limit of what seemed to be possible was closer to 10.4 than 11.4. Bonkers really. Not entirely confident that December will turn out milder than 6 at the moment, but many years have proven that initial thoughts can turn out very, very wrong.

Very true, could still go either way for the final month of 2022.

Edited November 25, 2022 by Don

[Roger J Smith]

Hey Don, you said earlier you were sorry I predicted 8.9, now I'm sorry I predicted 8.9 (not very much though). More sorry that I changed my EWP -- own goal there. 

[Don]

16 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

Hey Don, you said earlier you were sorry I predicted 8.9, now I'm sorry I predicted 8.9 (not very much though). More sorry that I changed my EWP -- own goal there. 

I'm now sorry I predicted 7.4C lol!  Looks like you will be pretty close with your CET prediction and as for your EWP, well you can't win them all!  December prediction is going to be interesting!

[Weather-history]

At the moment, November is the wettest month since December 2020 for the EWP.

 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 8.8C +1.2C above normal. Rainfall 122.4mm 138.6% of the monthly total.

Unlikely to be a change today. Looking at the local forecast it gives us a finish around 8.4C +1.4C above normal.

[Summer Sun]

9.6c to the 25th

3.1c above the 61 to 90 average
2.3c above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 8.8C +1.3C above average. Rainfall 126.9mm 143.7% of the monthly average.

Looking at the local forecast it's looking like an 8.5C to 8.7C finish for us which pus in 3rd to 4th place warmest on record. Rainfall no more is forecast for the next five days which puts as ninth wettest on record for us. Autumn comes in at the 5th wettest on record

Edited November 27, 2022 by The PIT

[Summer Sun]

9.5c to the 26th

3.1c above the 61 to 90 average
2.3c above the 81 to 10 average

[Roger J Smith]

EWP had reached 155.0 mm after 26 days and yesterday looks to have added a grid average of perhaps 2-4 mm so as the outlook today to end of month is essentially dry, that should lead to a final value near 158 mm. That is close enough to my scoring table estimate (155 mm) that I will just wait for the confirmed tracker amount to make very small adjustments as needed then (on 2nd Dec, further edit may be required 5th Dec from final table value). A finish at 158.0 mm would be tied 15th wettest November all time (with 1946). Hmm. Also 157.9 mm (1926) is now 16th. Since 1980, there have been only three Novembers wetter, 2000 (6th, 182.1 mm), 2002 (9th, 176.6 mm) and 2009 (5th, 192.1 mm). Also 1951, 1954, 1963 and 1970 were wetter, the other eight in the current top fifteen are from 1946 or earlier, and the monthly record is 202.5 mm from 1852.

 

 

[Summer Sun]

9.6c to the 27th

3.1c above the 61 to 90 average
2.4c above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 8.8C +1.4C above average. Rainfall unchanged.

[Roger J Smith]

The record high minimum (8.8 C) was tied on Sunday 27th in v2.0. 1994 had the same value after being downgraded from 9.0 in the CET legacy series. Otherwise, mean daily and maximum values were not a threat to the existing records. 

Today's CET looks to be around 7 C and next two days close to 4 C. On that basis the outcome would most likely be 9.1 C. 

[Summer Sun]

9.5c to the 28th

3.1c above the 61 to 90 average
2.4c above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 8.7C +1.4C above normal. Rainfall up to 127mm 143.8% of the monthly average.

Looking like an 8.3C to 8.5C finish for us.

[damianslaw]

The colder end to the tail of the month will prevent Nov 2022 going down as mildest on record. A finish around 9.2 or 9.3 degrees most likely. Summary Nov 2022, 'exceptionally mild and very wet with southerly winds often dominating'.

[Summer Sun]

9.3c to the 29th

2.9c above the 61 to 90 average
2.2c above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 8.5C +1.3C above average. Rainfall up to 127.2mm 144.1% of the monthly average.

Now down to the fourth warmest.  A further drop for today may take it down to the 5th warmest.  It's also the 9th wettest on record.