Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn

[northwestsnow]

Just now, TSNWK said:

Morning Was thr parallel closet to ukm or primary gfs? 

It's crud..

Nothing like ukmo..

[sheikhy]

Just now, TSNWK said:

Morning Was thr parallel closet to ukm or primary gfs? 

Was gona say i love bluearmys cryptic messages every year come winter!keep us on our toes!!

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

It's crud..

Nothing like ukmo..

We either want gfs which blows it away or the ukmo!dont want a middle ground cos what that will do is leave stagnant weather fronts north to south across the uk giving copious amounts of rain and im pretty much done with the rain!!ive had deluge after deluge last 4 weeks to 5 weeks!!

[bluearmy]

I’ve added to my day 5 post as unsurprisingly things move on by day 6 

[Kasim Awan]

Slow steady synoptic gains...

[Duane S.]

Sorry if it’s been asked / answered elsewhere but what’s happened to the Berlin site this year?

The ECM strat data is normally well up and going by this time of the year.

[Andy Bown]

48 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Slow steady synoptic gains...

Good. Too many people want a sudden switch to winter nirvana which simply isn’t going to happen. Particularly on the back of such a hot year and with potential record November temperatures in the next few days.

[blizzard81]

10 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Sorry if it’s been asked / answered elsewhere but what’s happened to the Berlin site this year?

The ECM strat data is normally well up and going by this time of the year.

They figured that the output could be quite enjoyable for us coldies this season so decided to keep it shut down. 

[MattH]

36 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Sorry if it’s been asked / answered elsewhere but what’s happened to the Berlin site this year?

The ECM strat data is normally well up and going by this time of the year.

It's unfortunately been pulled, the information won't be put online this year for a number of reasons, I got in touch with FU Berlin last week. I did stress, mind how important the data is, but it's not likely to return this winter which is a big loss.

[northwestsnow]

12 minutes ago, MattH said:

It's unfortunately been pulled, the information won't be put online this year for a number of reasons, I got in touch with FU Berlin last week. I did stress, mind how important the data is, but it's not likely to return this winter which is a big loss.

Great to see you posting Matt

[Skullzrulerz]

1 hour ago, Kasim Awan said:

Slow steady synoptic gains...

Indeed, slow and steady may win the race?

[Shere Khan]

55 minutes ago, Andy Bown said:

Good. Too many people want a sudden switch to winter nirvana which simply isn’t going to happen. Particularly on the back of such a hot year and with potential record November temperatures in the next few days.

I was thinking just this. Just comparing the charts with November 2009 and they are similar. Let’s get the vortex into Northern Europe to create the cold pooling over the next fortnight. Then we can hope for some sort of easterly incursion late nov early December. The deep cold hung around Northern Europe for two weeks before anything hitting our shores early dec back in 2009 . Patience is needed. Right now all the foundations seem to be falling into place, hopefully this will continue

[carinthian]

Morning all. A  chart  from the UKMO , enough to tantalise  and excite the cold lovers taste buds !  The feel good factors in place , Strong Scandinavian High, fall in heights over Europe to aid CAA advection westwards under the block. Strong Ridge over Alaska and possible cross polar connection. What can go wrong ?  Well in reality, I suppose recent history has shown this to happen rather often. But we are encouraged over here to the resilience in the models to what is being heralded as an increasingly cold block over NE Europe. Cold air flowing south from the Arctic into the Western North Atlantic should strengthen the trough towards Western Europe. The key to unlock cold is for this to under cut the block. Easier said than done, but as I have highlighted the building blocks seem to be gathering pace.

C

[Mike Poole]

Well, now the interest has really started with a blocked scenario into the reliable - quite a big shift at early times to get to this point, and now it is all about how this scandi high evolves to see what we in the UK can get out of it.  ECM clusters T192-T240:

Cluster 2 the block is rather blown away and this looks too progressive to me, the others all hold the block but it evolves in different ways, with cluster 4 moving to -NAO regime.

T264-T360:

I guess which looks reasonable here depends on your view of what the ultimate destination is.  I think we are headed towards the -NAO regime, which is cluster 1, but the high too far into the Arctic for us.  Cluster 3 looks a better evolution of the high retrogressing, and again cluster 2 remains with the block failing to offer much resistance. 

Very interesting model watching now, and it isn’t even mid November yet.  

[Met4Cast]

It's going to be a little while before this pattern is resolved. As always, when we have an active Atlantic coming in and stalling against a blocking high pressure system models struggle.

 

The broadscale pattern doesn't have to change a huge amount for us to see a huge difference in weather here in the UK, the devil is in the details & unfortunately the details are too far out to be ascertained. 

200-300 miles east or west doesn't make a big difference on a hemispheric scale but it makes a huge difference for us here in the UK. Yesterdays 18z GFS was best case scenario for cold lovers but unfortunately is also a lower probability outcome.

I suspect the Dets this morning are being too progressive with the Atlantic & underestimating the blocking, having said that I don't think we're gonna see a quick route to cold either. However; getting cold into eastern (and hopefully central, but this is less certain) is good enough for me at the moment.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

On 08/11/2022 at 14:35, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

If we look at the pattern currently  the low pressures are on a west > east trajectory. Now comparing with January 2013 we had the low in the Atlantic which would try a similar movement to the current pattern 

A telling sign is when the lows take on the \ angle which I refer to as negatively tilted  These are referred to as sliding lows sometimes too.

Often the meeting area for the Atlantic airmass and the flow from the east is smack bang over the UK we often call this a classic battleground setup and along the boundary it can deliver big snowfalls

With the high to the east the low cannot move through the UK so has to move southeast a good example why why refer to them as 'blocking' Highs  

The next low also took on a negative tilt 

There's a good example on one of the 6z GEFS 

Seems like I posted this at an ideal time  

0z Icon  there's the negatively tilted trough and the box i marked shows the isobars which we'd want to have the UK within, why? Well of course there's never guarantees when it comes to weather but being within those isobars associated with the scandi block would 99% of the time lead us into the easterly flow.

The northern hemisphere view same timestamp of the Icon   I also marked the massive Alaskan ridge 1050hpa there (if you look at the current modelled strength of the Scandi block its roughly around 1030hpa so that gives an idea of how impressive that Alaskan ridging might turn out to be)

Very impressive 0z UKMO and really closely matching up to the Icon. 

 

The ECM 0z operational perhaps not as well positioned but the ensembles have the high over Scandi all the way through the run  

 

 

 

[damianslaw]

3 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS piling energy into the Northern arm.

Blows the block away.

UKMO is defo the preferred option at 168 ..

GFS though maintains heights to the NE, definate undercut scenario but not south enough to pull in colder air. 

[northwestsnow]

5 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

GFS though maintains heights to the NE, definate undercut scenario but not south enough to pull in colder air. 

Scandy highs are laden with pitfalls.

If not orientated correctly the pattern can turn very ugly as the Northern arm powers up and the Azores high ridges into Europe..

Edited November 10, 2022 by northwestsnow

[damianslaw]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Scandy highs are laden with pitfalls.

If not orientated correctly the pattern can very ugly as the Northern arm powers up and the Azores high ridges into Europe..

Same with Greenland highs, can easily turn into a negative west based NAO with the UK held under mild SW flow.. as said always fine margins with the UK and more times than not things don't fall into place, but when they do, the underdog wins out. 

[jules216]

What could prove intersting is another round of MJO in two weeks time to keep +GLAAM ticking, there are some nice analogs of MJO 6-7 late November as far as I remember. I dont know though how negative ENSO might interfeer though with phases even more conductive to cold. More qualified people like @Singularityor @Tamara would have perhaps more to say, as far as I Can see the GWO is remaining in very much like EL Nino state and so far November 1984 is proving to be best match with unfolding Scandi blocking, now this qualifies as ramp I think

[Ali1977]

T168, and the Easterly is much stronger and colder over Europe compared to the 00z, let’s see if it can push back the Atlantic!! I have a feeling nothing will come from this, but nice to have some interest this early in the season !! 

 

It’s really trying by T192, cold getting pretty close to our East.

 

Well the Atlantic lost the battle, not sure where it’ll end up now - a cold frosty high would be nice. 

Edited November 10, 2022 by Ali1977

[TSNWK]

11 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

T168, and the Easterly is much stronger and colder over Europe compared to the 00z, let’s see if it can push back the Atlantic!! I have a feeling nothing will come from this, but nice to have some interest this early in the season !! 

 

It’s really trying by T192, cold getting pretty close to our East.

Vortex looks really strong to our north west though..

[MattH]

25 minutes ago, jules216 said:

What could prove intersting is another round of MJO in two weeks time to keep +GLAAM ticking, there are some nice analogs of MJO 6-7 late November as far as I remember. I dont know though how negative ENSO might interfeer though with phases even more conductive to cold. More qualified people like @Singularityor @Tamara would have perhaps more to say, as far as I Can see the GWO is remaining in very much like EL Nino state and so far November 1984 is proving to be best match with unfolding Scandi blocking, now this qualifies as ramp I think

The atmospheric disconnect to the La Nina base state has been somewhat underestimated but has happened before, can't remember the year, a few years back I think at this time of year within a La Nina and wQBO combination. Seasonal wavelength changes muddy the water still at this time of year, but the text-book mirrored hemispheric AAM pattern stands out like a sore thumb with AAM and the GWO both in their highest states/phases in nearly a year, again atmospherically we are within a Nino regime, oceancially (if thats a word!), it is still, obviously La Nina.

 

At the moment this +ve AAM spike is helping to reinforce the Atlantic trough (W'ly momentum being added to the mid-latitudes, albeit within a relatively amplified N Hem pattern), due to how the configuration is playing out upstream, but as time ticks by, as you rightly suggest another MJO passage through the Maritimes and W Hem late Nov, which does look like it will be a feature of the tropical forcing, at times, throughout this winter, may well 'come good'. Equally, the Atlantic trough and downstream ridge pattern is clearly almost semi-permenant, we have had multiple reoccuring spells of SW'lies with the trough to the W and a downstream ridge to the E. The constant blocking signal over Scandinavia at this time of year is most certainly not a bad thing with regards to wave breaking within the strat down the line either. So, while we continue to bask in unusual 'warmth' in the coming days, in time this spell may well be long forgotten about.

Obviously models are toying with the idea of the Scandinavian block becoming dominant with an undercut, as per the 00Z UKMO, as we see a fall in AAM, in the short-term, there is a window of opportunity for this to actually happen as the Atlantic looses some 'steam' but, equally, the counterbalance is the cold pool and increasing thermal gradient over the N Atlantic, the cyclonic pattern won't be push aside easily just yet and we all know the 'fine margins' that are required for this kind of setup to occur anyway.

All that aside, things are ticking along very nicely indeed at the moment with regards to how November is playing out and the long-standing seasonal model predictions for early winter blocking patterns to rule the roost will/hopefully make an appearance. 

Steady away...

[Ali1977]

As per the METO long range, High pressure is taking hold later into Nov, with frosts starting to become more widespread in mainland Europe - still nothing for us coldies to get excited about but it’s very early days, and even late Nov is still a long way off!! 

Edited November 10, 2022 by Ali1977

[Chesil View]

48 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

As per the METO long range, High pressure is taking hold later into Nov, with frosts starting to become more widespread in mainland Europe - still nothing for us coldies to get excited about but it’s very early days, and even late Nov is still a long way off!! 

Even late November is very early days in terms of a UK winter.

[jonboy]

11 minutes ago, Chesil View said:

Even late November is very early days in terms of a UK winter.

Happy to see frosts appearing beyond that lets wait until late December for any real action