Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn

[Lukesluckybunch]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Hopefully the High can get far enough North to introduce some frosty weather..

it looks like it will do by 240h but again its day 10!

[Adam lufc]

I think were just in another rut of continuously led up the garden path routine.

It will just be mild and wet for the for-seeable.

Can never get excited with incredible synoptics showing across the board in a 0-5day timeframe.

[swfc]

7 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

it looks like it will do by 240h but again its day 10!

The main point is the pv is in bits and the Atlantic is shutoff if the high plays ball and didn't sink. Slight subtle change at 144/168 and large changes. There's zero reason to not expect more changes. 

[Methuselah]

12Z ensembles are a little better for those close to Aberdeen:

    

[northwestsnow]

I actually like EC det 

By day 10 HP is firmly in charge and the PV is pulverised...

[swfc]

7 minutes ago, Adam lufc said:

I think were just in another rut of continuously led up the garden path routine.

It will just be mild and wet for the for-seeable.

Can never get excited with incredible synoptics showing across the board in a 0-5day timeframe.

Based on one set of runs?. Compare the EC 6z and the 12z.you may be correct but I've not seen a garden path tbh.look at the period 168,thats the issue

Edited November 20, 2022 by swfc

[Ali1977]

3 minutes ago, Adam lufc said:

I think were just in another rut of continuously led up the garden path routine.

It will just be mild and wet for the for-seeable.

Can never get excited with incredible synoptics showing across the board in a 0-5day timeframe.

This is a pretty good chart for coldies, continent cooling and a hp heading into the U.K. and likely north towards being a block - the NH PV is destroyed….

[Paul]

A quick note - for those who ever want to ignore someone - there's a guide here:

Please keep it to the models in this thread from here on in though - if you have any questions about using the features of the community, there's an area to ask them here:

https://community.netweather.tv/forum/67-help-support-and-feedback/

[Lukesluckybunch]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I actually like EC det 

By day 10 HP is firmly in charge and the PV is pulverised...

but what is that high going to do beyond this..your right the PV does look out of sorts!iwould imagine that high will just stick around over us for a fair few days by the look of it

[MP-R]

Oh to see the next few days after this...

Heights linking up  south to north and a wall being built in front of the Atlantic hopefully! Takes a few cherry bites to get there.

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

but what is that high going to do beyond this..your right the PV does look out of sorts!iwould imagine that high will just stick around over us for a fair few days by the look of it

It’s heading north pretty quickly, easy to see that by tabbing between day 9/10 - up through the eastern side of Greenland I imagine. 

Edited November 20, 2022 by Ali1977

[Lukesluckybunch]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

This is a pretty good chart for coldies, continent cooling and a hp heading into the U.K. and likely north towards being a block - the NH PV is destroyed….

ideally though wouldnt  we want a chunk of the pv to be spilling into eastern europe rather then allof it the other side of the hemisphere! the lack of cold around russia and scandi at day 10 is a concern?

[ANYWEATHER]

10 minutes ago, Paul said:

A quick note - for those who ever want to ignore someone - there's a guide here:

Please keep it to the models in this thread from here on in though - if you have any questions about using the features of the community, there's an area to ask them here:

https://community.netweather.tv/forum/67-help-support-and-feedback/

Sorry Paul, I was only trying to be helpful.....

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

ideally though wouldnt  we want a chunk of the pv to be spilling into eastern europe rather then allof it the other side of the hemisphere! the lack of cold around russia and scandi at day 10 is a concern?

Too far out to think into that much detail,   I reckon, as many have said it’s hard to get the prerfect set up - I’d be happy with a cold frosty period as it seems like a lifetime since that’s happened - then hope for something white.

[Lukesluckybunch]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

It’s heading north pretty quickly, easy to see that by tabbing between day 9/10 - up through the eastern side of Greenland I imagine. 

a nice trigger low would be good,to really advect the air uptowards greenland,,as i said the pattern at day 10 looks quite flat

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:

a nice trigger low would be good,to really advect the air uptowards greenland,,as i said the pattern at day 10 looks quite flat

The pattern is not flat at day 10..

I can give lots of examples of flat,that ec day 10  won't be on the list.

[Anthony Burden]

Evening all,ECM backing away from Scandinavian high now going for large high over U.K. all at 10 days,best option is to be patient and wait till it is the reliable time frame 96hrs /120hrs then hopefully we will have a better idea of position and orientation along with cold or mild hpa temperatures the key point is GFS/GEM/ECM all showing pressure rise fingers crossed for right position to allow north/ northeasterly flow to get established.

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

The pattern is not flat at day 10..

I can give lots of examples of flat,that ec day 10  won't be on the list.

i think dry and cold would be the outcome past this..then eventually a east northeast set up?

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:

i think dry and cold would be the outcome past this..then eventually a east northeast set up?

I suspect we would see a Scandy high 

[Adam lufc]

Everythings always day 10.

Always different after 168hr on every run.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

32 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

The hype of this morning gone just like that!!thank god i didnt fall for it!!my god that was a snooze fest of 12z runs this evening!!anyway dont wana say much more lol so over to the 00zs!!

Not hopeful of settled weather, GFS not been on board, feel EC will switch on 00Z

[E17boy]

Evening all

looks like this high pressure is really going to be put to the test for us coldies.

Hopefully it will go in the right direction 

 

[swfc]

2 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

a nice trigger low would be good,to really advect the air uptowards greenland,,as i said the pattern at day 10 looks quite flat

Hi mate. Yes waa is like you said good. The problem we have in the UK is we're surrounded with water unlikeeastern Europe. We're generally controlled by movements of the Eastern seaboard ie areas of low pressure. If the pv is weakened with heights to the nw then it's a big help. Look for low pressure and wwa going up the western side of Greenland

[Allseasons-Si]

9 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

a nice trigger low would be good,to really advect the air uptowards greenland,,as i said the pattern at day 10 looks quite flat

Luke,this is not flat and may become a good outcome past day ten of where the interest is as we go into Dec.

 

[Paul]

Just re-iterating the message at the top of the thread now that things are getting ever busier in here with winter on the horizon. Please keep it solely to model discussion in here. (Bearing in mind, that model discussion isn't just a mention of the word models, or a few screenshots + a gif - those things are better suited to the general chat thread too)

For chat, ramps, moans, hopes, dreams etc etc - the general chat thread is the best place - currently it's the Autumn one, but the Winter one will open on Dec 1st.