Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn

[ICE COLD]

P24 GEFS 6z anyone. About the best I can do at the minute

EDIT I see @Decemberof2010 beat me to it

Edited November 2, 2022 by ICE COLD

[Don]

57 minutes ago, johncam said:

Different times now as a few posters have said the normal background drivers dont seem to be influencing as normal , we have high sea temps , unusually warn near continent and European sector of Arctic with no sea ice , these are all influencing our weather so not normal 

Yes, times are different you can't deny, but if things are really that different, it almost makes looking for cold weather pointless surely?!

[Downburst]

25 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Well, we will see... but these charts are consistent and dont support any MJO phase 6 or 7 in the next 2 weeks.
 

MJO forecast and then composites based of MJO state are very complex as we all know, not just the amplitude but also the speed it moves through has an impact. Clearly it is a proven tool, as I understand it correctly studies running re analysis that show it to be good at predicting _NAO, +NAO etc, but not all the time. One could take the 46 day model runs from ECMWF which take MJO into account along with all other necessary coupling of the oceans conditions and make a decision then, but of course to be honest they aren't very clear about conditions into week 3 or 4 at all and that lends me to kind of ignore MJO forecast at least with respect to the fact it is as much a forecast as anything else even if direction of travel is kind of understood, and even if the forecast of MJO state came to pass exactly, the composite doesn't always fit given the speed and amplification etc. Too many variables at play other than MJO and too many variables in the MJO to hang your hat on in northern Europe, 10 day lag or not. I'll wait to see the 46 Day forecasts be more accurate or forthright before trying to look further into MJO myslef.

[damianslaw]

40 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Well, we will see... but these charts are consistent and dont support any MJO phase 6 or 7 in the next 2 weeks.
 

Weren't these composites wrong forecast for second half of Oct seem to recall. 

Edited November 2, 2022 by damianslaw

[johncam]

9 minutes ago, Don said:

Yes, times are different you can't deny, but if things are really that different, it almost makes looking for cold weather pointless surely?!

We live in hope Don , we live in hope,  will always be looking 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

The way the overnight ECM finished isn't terrible with a strong high that is in a decent position to head for Scandi and the troughing from Greenland into the Atlantic becoming more negatively tilted (a positive for easterly potential) its game very much still on from my POV  

 

 

 

Edited November 2, 2022 by Kirkcaldy Weather

[mushymanrob]

22 minutes ago, Downburst said:

MJO forecast and then composites based of MJO state are very complex as we all know, not just the amplitude but also the speed it moves through has an impact. Clearly it is a proven tool, as I understand it correctly studies running re analysis that show it to be good at predicting _NAO, +NAO etc, but not all the time. One could take the 46 day model runs from ECMWF which take MJO into account along with all other necessary coupling of the oceans conditions and make a decision then, but of course to be honest they aren't very clear about conditions into week 3 or 4 at all and that lends me to kind of ignore MJO forecast at least with respect to the fact it is as much a forecast as anything else even if direction of travel is kind of understood, and even if the forecast of MJO state came to pass exactly, the composite doesn't always fit given the speed and amplification etc. Too many variables at play other than MJO and too many variables in the MJO to hang your hat on in northern Europe, 10 day lag or not. I'll wait to see the 46 Day forecasts be more accurate or forthright before trying to look further into MJO myslef.

Fair comment

19 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Weren't these composites wrong forecast for second half of Oct seem to recall. 

Yep...

[Uncertainty]

There never has been any chance of breaking out of this pattern until mid November. 
 

The initial shift to higher pressure and drier weather has always been around the 14th onwards, perhaps earlier in the south.

At that time, the NAEFS is showing a Scandinavian high anomaly. There is potential for this to get flattened however the signal has been consistent for a number of weeks across multiple models and sub-seasonal forecasts. Notice that this is still over 300 hours away! Far beyond the realms of even the ec op let alone the UKMO. 

After that, the hypothesised transition to a -NAO is possible. The CFS, for example, has been unusually consistent on this.

 

So anyone bemoaning the charts for being mild up to mid month is missing the point. If the blocking fails to materialise (or keeps getting pushed back) by late November then the seasonal forecasts may well have been fanciful ( and I will be first in the bemoaning queue ) For now, give the patterns and timings a chance to verify before writing the forecast off. 

[Allseasons-Si]

Ok here is my analysis on the day ten ECM chart that some find it meh!!! and i do understand why

1, it's at day ten yes

2, it has a blowtorch southerly

tedious to some and i can understand why as a newby but for a seasoned watcher like me and most of the seasoned guys in this thread we tend to explain in detail to everyone what is going on,so lets look at the bigger picture,the NH (northern hemisphere) view...

if this day ten ECM chart is anywhere near the mark come that day(i am sure it won't be) i will be bouncing about like a big baby lol.what i will explain  is as an example...

the black line shows a split in the trop vortex,mother(stronger vortice)over the Asian side with daughter vortice North America,the red arrows show WAA(warm air advection) up through the UK and to a lesser extent into Iceland and Greenland with also WAA through Alaska,the white circle shows a little low that breaks off the daughter vortice to our NW thanks to the high developing through the UK which would possibly head south or SE,this in turn could produce an easterly of some sort(green arrow)

so that's my take on this example to explain what could happen in ten days time but this is just a review and not to be taken seriously

as for the gfs,...its the latter stages of both the 00z/06z that show some interest coming in from the NW with some polar air with the azores high migrating further west out into the N Atlantic and has nothing showing by day ten like the ECM,...maybe the ECM is too progressive?

OK,...roll ya sleeves up peeps cos the 12z gfs in starting to roll out now

catch y'all soon

 

Edited November 2, 2022 by Allseasons-si
missed some text

[Rain All Night]

Not model output but likely to be of interest, the Met Office prognosis has had a rewrite, still sticking with the same message but giving slightly more detail, and without the pattern change being pushed back any further this time.

An earlier hint that the North was more likely to see higher pressure, dropped some days ago, seems now to have been inverted. "Colder" is now only "perhaps", "at times".

[summer blizzard]

2 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Weren't these composites wrong forecast for second half of Oct seem to recall. 

Phase 7 is being entered now but it's losing amplitude.

Would have to see the phase 5/6 composites for October to see how well we matched. The other anomoly charts were not bad during October.

[phil nw.]

The coming 2/3 weeks will be a good test for the mjo forecast and it's associated analogue.

Certainly recent ens guidance shows the Scuero ridge and likely development of a high close to our east or north east in week 2.

Let's see if the Atlantic jet is forced further south in time and undercuts the high.

Not yet though but possibly later in the month when conditions become more favourable to get the cold.

Certainly it's early days yet I am thinking let the Atlantic roar for now allow for the lag effect and see what happens around mid month onwards.

[Rain All Night]

2 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

The coming 2/3 weeks will be a good test for the mjo forecast and it's associated analogue.

Certainly recent ens guidance shows the Scuero ridge and likely development of a high close to our east or north east in week 2.

Let's see if the Atlantic jet is forced further south in time and undercuts the high.

Not yet though but possibly later in the month when conditions become more favourable to get the cold.

Certainly it's early days yet I am thinking let the Atlantic roar for now allow for the lag effect and see what happens around mid month onwards.

Could I get a jargon bust on Scuero? Google gives me pictures of Squirtle...

[phil nw.]

Just now, RainAllNight said:

Could I get a jargon bust on Scuero? Google gives me pictures of Squirtle...

Lol It's a mongrel name some of us have adopted to cover a combination Euro/Scandinavian high pressure area.

[Rain All Night]

3 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

Lol It's a mongrel name some of us have adopted to cover a combination Euro/Scandinavian high pressure area.

Ahhh I see, something like this then. Thanks!

[Uncertainty]

Mild it may be, but this inside day 10 gfs chart has a 1045mb Scandi high and an easterly flow in the SE…

[phil nw.]

3 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

Ahhh I see, something like this then. Thanks!

Yes.

[TSNWK]

3 minutes ago, Josh S said:

Mild it may be, but this inside day 10 gfs chart has a 1045mb Scandi high and an easterly flow in the SE…

Interesting..  would topple had to get that one in...

[Rain All Night]

9 minutes ago, Josh S said:

Mild it may be, but this inside day 10 gfs chart has a 1045mb Scandi high and an easterly flow in the SE…

If that HP stayed put, how long would it take the green uppers to reach England from this point?

Edited November 2, 2022 by RainAllNight

[Uncertainty]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

Interesting..  would topple had to get that one in...

Perhaps, but it would put the cat amongst the strat pigeons before it did…

 

Now 1050mb with a Italian low underneath. Hardly a classic sinker! Though the ridge that verifies might well do!

[Allseasons-Si]

Cold blob alert

...although rather small

seriously though,...there is some interesting output to disguss at last

[feb1991blizzard]

i don't buy into this but it's more likely than a nina uk late nov loading pattern.

[Methuselah]

5 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

If that HP stayed put, how long would it take the green uppers to reach southern England from this point?

Second week in January for the blues?!

[Allseasons-Si]

Now i am watching out for re-amplification into Griceland as the high retrogresses west.

[Tim Bland]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

i don't buy into this but it's more likely than a nina uk late nov loading pattern.

A few tweaks and that could be interesting for those in the east…