Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn

[reef]

It's looking ridiculously mild. If the 12z GFS run were to come to fruition we'd be looking at a CET of 12.0-12.5C by mid-month.

The 9th, 11th, 12th 13th and 14th would all be in with a chance of somewhere reaching 20C. All would be date records.

[Eagle Eye]

@tight isobar posts make some of the most sense and anyone on here, there funny and have good knowledge even if they have their own biases so what? That's like most people on here, @jon snowloves the cold more than all of us combined doesn't mean they can't know their stuff like us. You've just got to take your time with tight isobars posts that's to fully enjoy them. I like that he (I think they're a he) is different and his own person.

[ANYWEATHER]

14 minutes ago, reef said:

It's looking ridiculously mild. If the 12z GFS run were to come to fruition we'd be looking at a CET of 12.0-12.5C by mid-month.

The 9th, 11th, 12th 13th and 14th would all be in with a chance of somewhere reaching 20C. All would be date records.

It's looking rediculously mild? When.  Of course if your talking the gfs run right at the end then you're right. Zero chance of verifying at that range!

[johncam]

Another terrible run from Gfs , mild muck the whole way 

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

It's looking rediculously mild? When.  Of course if your talking the gfs run right at the end then you're right. Zero chance of verifying at that range!

So, you say: just like you did in July?

[Cheshire Freeze]

8 minutes ago, johncam said:

Another terrible run from Gfs , mild muck the whole way 

 Looks OK again to finish...no raging +AO there. Just need to rid ourselves of that Iberian HP somewhow

Edited October 31, 2022 by CreweCold

[Anthony Burden]

Evening all,with the Met office 3 month winter forecast bias towards average possibly leaning towards cold some excitement for the cold lovers where ever you are.Also dryer on average may set the scene for northern blocking this scenario seems to have come out of the blue possibly Glosea along with several European long range forecast’s showing some form of northern blocking very encouraging we shall have to wait and see of course.

[PiscesStar]

Meanwhile.... Latest gfs run show ls more of the same bloody thing I'm afraid. The azores high being  a pain  in the weeble. More runs needed. 

[blizzard81]

A clear and definite downgrade of the angry PV on the ecm. 192z from Saturday compared to today's 144z. 

[blizzard81]

Hello! Stirrings over Scandi?

[blizzard81]

Lets see if this gains traction over the next few runs. 

[johncam]

50 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

 Looks OK again to finish...no raging +AO there. Just need to rid ourselves of that Iberian HP somewhow

Yep , that's the problem,  don't see it going anywhere anytime soon 

[blizzard81]

These aren't too shabby either. It's not too outlandish to think the natural conclusion of tonight's ecm run would lead to something akin to this at weeks 3 to 4.

[Bristawl Si]

52 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

 Looks OK again to finish...no raging +AO there. Just need to rid ourselves of that Iberian HP somewhow

AEMET Spanish met office predicting warmer temps than average and normal rainfall levels for mainland Spain Nov to Jan, so prob indicates the Iberian High will be hanging around for a while, in some form, with only temporary 'interruptions'. For the Balearics and Eastern coastal areas of Spain higher than norm rainfall, which likely indicates low pressure systems affecting the Med itself.

[blizzard81]

A very encouraging ecm run tonight. Extensive and expansive cold pool out east. 

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, johncam said:

Another terrible run from Gfs , mild muck the whole way 

As said GFS has churned out nearly every synoptic at the end of its recent models, treat with margin for high error. 

Edited October 31, 2022 by damianslaw

[Anthony Burden]

A quick word on GFS 12z showing some very warm temperatures,Marco Patanga from the met office stating it was an outlier.

[Scorcher]

44 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

A quick word on GFS 12z showing some very warm temperatures,Marco Patanga from the met office stating it was an outlier.

The GFS showed something very similar in one of this morning's runs. Certainly looks more likely to be exceptionally mild than cold anyway in the next 10 days.

[Cambrian]

It looks like a case of “gently as she goes” to me. Comparing the day 8 and day 15 GFS mean and anomaly charts, the Atlantic is clearly on the wane during the second week. The jet stream weakens and gets shunted north and good heights, already built in from the continent, importantly also build over Scandinavia and finally make the link-up through to northern Greenland and over the pole. The averaged out tenuous westerly feed not to be taken that literally at that stage with the sustained heights being shown, and especially considering where those heights are.

Day 8

 

Day 15

 

A recipe for growing surface cold, radiational cooling during the long nights progressively pulling down the daytime temperatures, central Britain dropping by around 4 degrees, night and day. Day 8 vs 15 at day…

 
at night - 
 

Even the T850s are down 4 degrees and back to the norm.

 

A similar picture for the rest of Europe - a whole continent in the process of a very seasonal seasonal cool-down, that looks like it could well run on from there to make the end of the month very crisp indeed. Time by then perhaps to sit back and enjoy watching the high pressure do the work.

Edited October 31, 2022 by Cambrian

[johncam]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

As said GFS has churned out nearly every synoptic at the end of its recent models, treat with margin for high error. 

Yep always do mate 

[ANYWEATHER]

1 hour ago, blizzard81 said:

A very encouraging ecm run tonight. Extensive and expansive cold pool out east. 

Yes indeed, but if the block remains just about there , it will give us tiddly squat. ...but it's in the filthy distant future

[johncam]

13 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Yes indeed, but if the block remains just about there , it will give us tiddly squat. ...but it's in the filthy distant future

It's more than likely to drift SE 

[Rain All Night]

31 minutes ago, Cambrian said:

It looks like a case of “gently as she goes” to me. Comparing the day 8 and day 15 GFS mean and anomaly charts, the Atlantic is clearly on the wane during the second week. The jet stream weakens and gets shunted north and good heights, already built in from the continent, importantly also build over Scandinavia and finally make the link-up through to northern Greenland and over the pole. The averaged out tenuous westerly feed not to be taken that literally at that stage with the sustained heights being shown, and especially considering where those heights are.

Day 8

 

Day 15

 

A recipe for growing surface cold, radiational cooling during the long nights progressively pulling down the daytime temperatures, central Britain dropping by around 4 degrees, night and day. Day 8 vs 15 at day…

 
at night - 
 

Even the T850s are down 4 degrees and back to the norm.

 

A similar picture for the rest of Europe - a whole continent in the process of a very seasonal seasonal cool-down, that looks like it could well run on from there to make the end of the month very crisp indeed. Time by then perhaps to sit back and enjoy watching the high pressure do the work.

Thanks, that could explain how we get to the Met Office day 16-30 position, if that does not get pushed back further still.

[Uncertainty]

So, despite the much flatter ens set earlier on, the EC46 still finds blocking later in the run. 


 

 

 

 

The SPV looks stronger on his run though; and the mjo signal weaker for a time which perhaps explains the flatter week 1-3 period.

 

A small Cluster really drops off at the end, conceivable if a really strong scandi / Greenland dipole develops. But nothing to hold your hat on just now.

FWIW, the latest eps features less +NAO than the 0z.

 

If anyone wants a more detailed synoptic analysis of the journey towards a late Nov -NAO I suggest you read Eric Webber’s fantastic summary on the other thread or on Twitter. It fits with the sizeable seasonal model signal and the likes of the cfs and JMA weeklies too.

However, there’s just still something slightly unconvincing about this upcoming pattern change. I can’t quite put my finger on it. I guess for a true pattern change in winter away from the norm I like to see the means showing an anomalous 1030mb northern block rather than just a small positive anomaly when the mean is still very much westerly.

This evening’s ecm shows that well, plenty of ‘blocky’ members, but still a westerly overall.

 

So many times coldies have been burnt over the past 8 years, so very few cold spells to show for it. I’m going to need more than the above to convince myself that this time is going to be different.

The nightmare scenario: a 2009 style rain festival with no blocked winter to follow, remains possible. As does some kind of 2010 redux. But until the signal strengthens and/or enters the reliable I remain intrigued but cautious. 

Edited October 31, 2022 by Josh S

[johncam]

Some ridiculous high temps if the latest GFS is to be believed