Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn

[Liam Burge]

The end of the GFS 00z run is very exciting!

[Turnedoutniceagain]

36 minutes ago, Liam Burge said:

The end of the GFS 00z run is very exciting!

I'll take even a sniff of that. It's been mild forever

[mushymanrob]

12 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

This mornings was showing a Urals block...

as does the CPC but no sign of a Atlantic ridge.

Shhhhh .... dont tell cold lovers something they dont want to hear! lol

EPS agrees too - no Atlantic ridge other than a transitory feature . Maybe this is why so many dont like the Anomalies - they seldom show support for a favoured cold op chart.

But they are only predictions, maybe there will be an Atlantic ridge, we will see.

 

[tight isobar]

8 hours ago, Beanz said:

Your posts haven’t made sense for years

Blank em then

[Mike Poole]

1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

Shhhhh .... dont tell cold lovers something they dont want to hear! lol

EPS agrees too - no Atlantic ridge other than a transitory feature . Maybe this is why so many dont like the Anomalies - they seldom show support for a favoured cold op chart.

But they are only predictions, maybe there will be an Atlantic ridge, we will see.

 

Be that as it may!  It’s only at day 16 on the odd GFS run at the mo.  I am struck by the 4 wave pattern on the EPS anomaly chart you post there, we are approaching winter with a very meridional jet stream, which means stuck patterns are likely, and I guess for coldies that means chancing to be on the cold side of one when the music stops…

[mb018538]

1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

Shhhhh .... dont tell cold lovers something they dont want to hear! lol

EPS agrees too - no Atlantic ridge other than a transitory feature . Maybe this is why so many dont like the Anomalies - they seldom show support for a favoured cold op chart.

But they are only predictions, maybe there will be an Atlantic ridge, we will see.

 

No real cold prospects at the moment. Anoms just show a continuation of what we've had recently - winds mainly from the W/SW/S, so plenty more mild and blowy weather on the way over the next couple of weeks.

[ANYWEATHER]

13 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

No real cold prospects at the moment. Anoms just show a continuation of what we've had recently - winds mainly from the W/SW/S, so plenty more mild and blowy weather on the way over the next couple of weeks.

Yes ,normal November filth

[Methuselah]

Things are clearly not looking too good for anyone looking for cold rain just now: that high-pressure area over Europe has waxed & waned for months on end. But, in one way, that's okay -- it wasn't until the last full week of November 1978 that something similar broke down...

[sheikhy]

Mild charts just get milder and continuing for the forseeable with warm west southwesterlies!!!wake me up from this snoozefest when something exciting is on its way lol!!

[Ali1977]

57 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Mild charts just get milder and continuing for the forseeable with warm west southwesterlies!!!wake me up from this snoozefest when something exciting is on its way lol!!

Mild, but extremely blocked in FI. Seems to be a trend of recent runs, get a block over Greenland like this and things could fall well for coldies!! A long way off but we all love a chase, and it’s in line with some thoughts of those more qualified than me due to the -IOD and MJO floating around 6/7. 

 

The latest METO 3 month forecast suggests a cold Nov-Jan period is more likely than a mild one, albeit around average temps being the form horse - average is actually pretty chilly compared to some more recent years though. 

Edited October 31, 2022 by Ali1977

[Newberryone]

00z Ecm again showing more prominent and indeed perhaps more sustained ridging from the south ( a cold lovers nightmare ) going in to week 2 of Nov. As I highlighted in my previous post the most likely way this will play out is with the huge swathe of heights to the south eventually weakening weather systems coming in off the Atlantic resulting in a marked decrease in precipitation. As for any ridge migrating north, I think any meaningful attempt will be scuppered come the time by the northern arm of the jet suppressing the high. Temps naturally would remain average or slightly above for the foreseeable.

Edited October 31, 2022 by Newberryone
Including weather chart image

[northwestsnow]

2 hours ago, tight isobar said:

Blank em then

I enjoy your post mate.

 

[Day 10]

2 hours ago, tight isobar said:

Blank em then

Nothing wrong with your posts mate.

[TSNWK]

2 hours ago, tight isobar said:

Blank em then

Over the years I've grown to really appreciate your contributions @tight isobar.. maybe guilty of a cold bias..  but hey you're in good company there and clearly knowledgeable on topic.. articulated in an unique style...you're one of my tagged posters.. 

Here's to winter 2022..

[Frigid]

The GFS 6z ens look very mild but the synoptic charts are signalling lots of northern blocking. 

   

Still in Fl but hopefully we see further developments. 

 

Edited October 31, 2022 by Frigid

[Robbie Garrett]

2010 was very much a calm year for the Atlantic and the start of drought conditions across much of the UK.  Wouldn't surprise me if synoptics follow a similar route with a quieter than average Atlantic.

Edited October 31, 2022 by Robbie Garrett

[BruenSryan]

3 minutes ago, Robbie Garrett said:

2010 was very much a calm year for the Atlantic and the start of drought conditions across much of the UK.  Wouldn't surprise me if synoptics follow a similar route with a quieter than average Atlantic.

Wasn't the North Atlantic Hurricane Season also a late starter and silent one?

? 2010 Atlantic hurricane season was one of the most active on record...

[mb018538]

23 minutes ago, Frigid said:

The GFS 6z ens look very mild but the synoptic charts are signalling lots of northern blocking. 

   

Still in Fl but hopefully we see further developments. 

 

What happened to low pressure systems barrelling across the Atlantic in autumn? Now they just get to the W/NW of the UK and get stuck 

[Robbie Garrett]

13 minutes ago, BruenSryan said:

? 2010 Atlantic hurricane season was one of the most active on record...

I stand corrected.  But 2010 for the UK was very dry.

[Rain All Night]

24 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

What happened to low pressure systems barrelling across the Atlantic in autumn? Now they just get to the W/NW of the UK and get stuck 

We have got used to them getting stuck now, so this week might be a bit of a shock to the system.

[damianslaw]

We have a shift in the general pattern we've been stuck in for 2 weeks, the atlantic has some oomph to it. Low pressure tracking through the UK pulling in more of westerly feed, still mild, but not the dizzy heights of recent days. It will feel chillier for all. As we move further into November, no major change in terms of mild theme, but continued signal blocking will hold sway, probably to the south at first, but longer term signs further north as well, a pincer attack on the trough. 

I'm reminded of 2009 which saw a sluggish jet and very mild theme, but then big switch in December, difference this time is we have had 2 weeks already of very mild, so time for change would be earlier later in the month.. 

Anyone wanting to see definate sign of a change to something colder and settled coming closer to reliable, might be best to take a break from model watching for a week or so at least.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

On 27/10/2022 at 13:41, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

The building blocks (little play on words there ) are starting to come into the modelling with good frequency, for any newer model watchers don't worry on the exact location at this point, might be a block to the east with retrogression to Greenland or might develop more readily toward Greenland first...currently I'd think the natural progression would move it in that direction anyway. Here's the original charts 

 And besides the block setting up I highlighted another significant thing to watch for 

Might be the tropospheric PV moves to a pretty highly favourable position for an easier path to get into the proper snow producing upper temperatures than if it was sat closer to the Canadian / U.S side.

Currently I look at it a bit like we are choosing a puzzle we'd most like to build its no rush let the pattern develop, the next stage will be figuring out exactly which pieces go where

A big shift overnight seeing many more in the ensemble suites picking up the blocking

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Allseasons-Si]

5 hours ago, tight isobar said:

Blank em then

Keep posting pal cos you are one of the great contributers on here 

as for the models and unless the 06z gfs is picking up a signal with N blocking...

...i see no such thing looking at the anomalies etc

ext'd EPS out to 360 hrs 500mb/MSLP and temp anomalies show a flat W/NW with temps on the mild side

here is a look at the ECM Ensemble trajectories and as you can see out to 192 hrs we are in a neutral positon blocking wise in a slightly +NAO,obviously they only go out to 192 hrs but i will be keeping an eye on these over the next few days to see if those 192 hr(red) ens start shifting to a more favourable position(black circle)

let's see if the 12z throws out a similar scenario to the 06z and if so,...i will start to raise my eyebrow slightly more.

 

[Georgina]

5 hours ago, TSNWK said:

Over the years I've grown to really appreciate your contributions @tight isobar.. maybe guilty of a cold bias..  but hey you're in good company there and clearly knowledgeable on topic.. articulated in an unique style...you're one of my tagged posters.. 

Here's to winter 2022..

I too really enjoy @tight isobarposts I can understand them well enough . 
Posts from people I don’t understand I tend to just scroll past not slate for it Keep posting @tight isobar

[RJBingham]

GFS showing 18/19c around here next week, crazy, but in a good way.