Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn

[Don]

1 hour ago, Allseasons-si said:

Just to reiterate on just how quick the models can flip from a strong pv to the north with Euro heights to the south to strong heights to the northwest,...yes i have picked out the 2010 Reanalysis achived charts from meteociel just to give you an example...

The opening days of November 2010 were very mild to warm with 18C recorded in the south!

[Ali1977]

Morning all, my first post for several months!! This FI chart looks interesting from the GFS, the PV has shifted to Siberia and heights are heading into the Arctic. A long way off but mid Nov is where it starts in my eyes, and it would be a waste to have the perfect set up in early Nov.
 

In the mean time enjoy the warmth and keep saving the pennies on your gas and electric bills for when we need that heating cranked up 

 

Edited October 30, 2022 by Ali1977

[Jimmyh]

12 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

Just to reiterate on just how quick the models can flip from a strong pv to the north with Euro heights to the south to strong heights to the northwest,...yes i have picked out the 2010 Reanalysis achived charts from meteociel just to give you an example...

who would of thought that we was going to see a memorable cold spell from this chart on the 15th Nov eh!

well i was fooled but look what happens seven days later onwards

now come on guys we are still in Autumn and so lets sit out this mild spell and see what transpires over the coming days/weeks,...chins up boys and girls,...a looooooong way to go yet

oooh!!!,just checked out the 12z gfs,...this is what we want to see in terms of punching that tpv against the ropes

Fabulous post. I for a couple of days as the responses to record breaking temps and warm end to October was convinced this was how November 2010 started. 

[damianslaw]

Charts beginning to see a change to high pressure emerging in about the 10 day timeframe. Looking like heights will build in initially from the south as the jetstream shifts north. Question is where will they ultimately set up, interesting to note GFS showing an amplified jet thereafter with trough into scandi this allows the high to ridge north through UK and most likely the pull back west. Yesterday it was going for a scandi high though.. as I said the fact it is showing varied output long term is simply due to it being unclear at the moment of where heights will eventually end up.

What has been steadfast is this signal for high pressure to take over at some point in Nov, we just can't say when and how just yet.

[RJBingham]

GFS Still looking mild into the reliable.

[Cambrian]

Three separate frontal systems getting through the UK and Ireland during the next week according to the 0z GFS op, early Tuesday, late Wednesday / Thursday and next weekend, and each with nicely defined cold fronts with good sharp clearances. Thursday’s front is my favourite, bringing quite a chilly couple of days at the end to the week after that one clears through.

 
 
 

With their associated showery sectors, they deliver between roughly 1 and 4 inches of rain on the week, depending on where you park your raincoat.

 

At least this spell is a splash of good news for at worst a partial reinstatement of the hydrological balance after a gruelling summer, with comfortably above normal rainfall for all parts. 

Looking less unsettled as we move further into November, so perhaps now is the time to celebrate the rain - we don’t have a say in it anyway, so we might as well. 

Before my time, but this track here, 

was part of the Revolver recordings, but incredibly, instead of putting it on the album where it would have sat beautifully, it was decided to use it only as a B-side to Paperback Writer, even with it having a great feel and one of those really cool spaced out sixties dreamy sequences at the end. Have a really good Sunday. 

[Newberryone]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

Charts beginning to see a change to high pressure emerging in about the 10 day timeframe. Looking like heights will build in initially from the south as the jetstream shifts north. Question is where will they ultimately set up, interesting to note GFS showing an amplified jet thereafter with trough into scandi this allows the high to ridge north through UK and most likely the pull back west. Yesterday it was going for a scandi high though.. as I said the fact it is showing varied output long term is simply due to it being unclear at the moment of where heights will eventually end up.

What has been steadfast is this signal for high pressure to take over at some point in Nov, we just can't say when and how just yet.

While a drying out period would no doubt be generally welcomed I can’t help but fear this will more than likely come at the expense of a stationary high to our south which as we all know has become more and more common. Naturally the hope will be for any such high to migrate north for example or at least relocate in time to a favourable position for us coldies but unfortunately the most likely scenario to unfold in this type of setup will be for weak weather systems to skirt over the top of the high therefore generally keeping it to our south. I know the Ecm has a tendency to over amplify in Fl territory at times but this day 10 chart for Nov 9th will I hope not verify for if it does we may have to clutch at a few straws in our quest for cold going forward.

[damianslaw]

I don't usually analyse each GFS run at far reaches, but I'll comment on GFS 6z interestingly it shows liw heights over central med.. can only see the high has one way to go if this verifies and that's west and north... 

The coming days will be case of looking at end of model runs to make more concerted guesses on where the high will end up, being definate on its origins at this range now is futile.. 

[johncam]

The high over the continent is the killer just waxing and waning,  awful 

[Rain All Night]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

I don't usually analyse each GFS run at far reaches, but I'll comment on GFS 6z interestingly it shows liw heights over central med.. can only see the high has one way to go if this verifies and that's west and north... 

The coming days will be case of looking at end of model runs to make more concerted guesses on where the high will end up, being definate on its origins at this range now is futile.. 

A similar feature seen here, a little earlier?

[TSNWK]

1 hour ago, johncam said:

The high over the continent is the killer just waxing and waning,  awful 

I've noticed you're appearing to be rather gloomy.. personally I think it's all good to keep it mild until December and January with early spring in February.. December and January with solar min and optimum time fie decent cold outbreaks..effective use of cold instead of wishy washy cooler snaps that still require the heating on..  

Will be well into 1st week November before central heating here I think   basically saves about 3 weeks heating so far. 

[johncam]

Yep fair point mate , things can and will change hopefully for the best of its real winter your after but we seem to be stuck in a rut which is just rinse and repeating 

[carinthian]

Think models are gathering a bit of pace now for a shock cooling down by Thursday and into Friday across The British Isles and a swathe of the currently sweltering Euroland. Our temp today at 1340m reached 18.8c , that quite staggering for the very end of October in these parts. Today the snow computer is forecasting quite widespread snowfall in the Eastern Alps on Friday with 23cm fresh snow at 2000m  and freezing level down to near 1300m level. Summer to winter in 5 days as tomorrow is forecast to be warm yet again.

C

[Ali1977]

T330, I imagine this would kick start winter a few days later

[Uncertainty]

 

Definitely a trend setter  

Bit more canonical Nina-like anyhow. 

Quite the run by the end of it 

 

This time yesterday had a scandi high…

Edited October 30, 2022 by Uncertainy

[Cloud 10]

Tis' almost the season...

 

[TSNWK]

8 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

Tis' almost the season...

 

Now you're talking... but would it topple

[Mike Poole]

GFS 12z bang on cue with the evolution to a northerly.  All just for fun, at the moment, but we are now expecting a pattern change at this range, and for me, this is more likely than the Scandi block option for starters, after a brief UK high.

The trough to our east is right on cue too.  Let’s see if this pattern gets some traction in future op runs and the ensembles.  

[blizzard81]

I think the button for this season's roller coaster has just been pressed this evening. 

[Sceptical]

8 hours ago, RJBingham said:

GFS Still looking mild into the reliable.

Next week the vast majority of the UK will be under double digit temperatures. 

[Allseasons-Si]

ERM!!!

i have just come in from a Sunday dinner at one of my relatives to be welcomed with this...

Edit: just to add(not fully out yet),the gefs ens and the gfs is on the mild side of the pack too...

 

Edited October 30, 2022 by Allseasons-si
added info/added chart

[Methuselah]

27 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I think the button for this season's roller coaster has just been pressed this evening. 

Oh, goody -- four months of 'blizzards at Day 10'!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Classic wishbone effect, cold enough for snow everywhere except far SW, but dry away from coasts, Pembrokeshire dangler and usual Eastern coastal areas,

[TSNWK]

11 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

ERM!!!

i have just come in from a Sunday dinner at one of my relatives to be welcomed with this...

Edit: just to add(not fully out yet),the gefs ens and the gfs is on the mild side of the pack too...

 

Really surprised with those ensembles around 14th.. how can that stonker of a northerly produce +5 uppers.. what on earth would be required then to produce the -5s within  that pack?... dud run?

Edited October 30, 2022 by TSNWK

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

Really surprised with those ensembles around 14th.. how can that stonker of a northerly produce +5 uppers.. what on earth would be required then to produce the -5s on that run... dud run?

Read my post again bud,...i did say that the ens are not fully out yet

starting to tank cold now.

Wetterzentrale.de - Diagrams

WWW.WETTERZENTRALE.DE

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Forecasted 850 hPa Temp. from GFS, 12Z