Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn

[Allseasons-Si]

15 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Oh, goody -- four months of 'blizzards at Day 10'!

Yeh!,...in Greece

8 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Classic wishbone effect, cold enough for snow everywhere except far SW, but dry away from coasts, Pembrokeshire dangler and usual Eastern coastal areas,

Get the cold in first

[Sceptical]

17 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Oh, goody -- four months of 'blizzards at Day 10'!

Without a doubt my favourite Netweather thread! Pure comedy gold  

[KTtom]

Never has a +384 chart held so much interest! Talk about things can only get better!

[Don]

29 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

ERM!!!

i have just come in from a Sunday dinner at one of my relatives to be welcomed with this...

 

The snow is even knocking on my door on that chart!!  Nice to see if nothing else after what seems like a lifetime of warmth!!

7 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Never has a +384 chart held so much interest! Talk about things can only get better!

After all the warmth and dire charts recently, it's nice on the eye, even at 384 hours away!!

[Allseasons-Si]

The ECM at 192 is not without interest with the Pac ridge and Atlantic ridge showing a pincer movement on the tpv...

[Lightfox]

Snow or warmth this winter, which ever it ends up being, as long as I’m feeling happy that’s all that matters.  
 

Mild is good to keep bills down and cold is fun if it actually snows so make it a win win situation 

[Crackerjack]

20 minutes ago, LightningFox92 said:

Snow or warmth this winter, which ever it ends up being, as long as I’m feeling happy that’s all that matters.  
 

Mild is good to keep bills down and cold is fun if it actually snows so make it a win win situation 

That’s a really nice thing to say mate, and it applies to us all ‘as long as we are feeling happy’ that’s what we all need. 
I’m happy tonight because I’ve popped in as usual and there was 7+ replies to read since my last visit less than an hour ago. I love it when it’s starting to buzz with anticipation in here and hopefully we will have lots of opportunities to do so this winter. 
nice looking day 10 charts there, just need to cool down now and get more seasonal. 
im in my 50’s but love this thread when winter comes like a kid at Xmas

have a great evening all the regulars and newbies alike. 
 

[Lightfox]

26 minutes ago, Crackerjack said:

That’s a really nice thing to say mate, and it applies to us all ‘as long as we are feeling happy’ that’s what we all need. 
I’m happy tonight because I’ve popped in as usual and there was 7+ replies to read since my last visit less than an hour ago. I love it when it’s starting to buzz with anticipation in here and hopefully we will have lots of opportunities to do so this winter. 
nice looking day 10 charts there, just need to cool down now and get more seasonal. 
im in my 50’s but love this thread when winter comes like a kid at Xmas

have a great evening all the regulars and newbies alike. 
 

Yes mate some things are good and when we have good mentality then everything in the world feels brighter and reminds me too of my childhood when everything to me seemed more happy and innocent in the world.  
 

As long as we are happy, we can find peace and peace gives us a good feeling despite the darkness in the world.  

[bluearmy]

Largest eps cluster at day 15 isn’t a million miles from the gfs op 

 

[Don]

These are the hints we need to see in the models for later in November, so hope they are on to something and do not lead us up the garden path!

[Allseasons-Si]

13 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Largest eps cluster at day 15 isn’t a million miles from the gfs op 

 

This mornings was showing a Urals block...

as does the CPC but no sign of a Atlantic ridge.

Edited October 30, 2022 by Allseasons-si

[bluearmy]

10 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

This mornings was showing a Urals block...

as does the CPC but no sign of a Atlantic ridge.

A distinct lack of consistency 

the 8/14 cpc is centred on day 11 so won’t necessarily pick up an end week 2 pattern ( and it won’t have any eps included at weekends)

it’s just a wintry straw at the moment ….

[Rain All Night]

12 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

A distinct lack of consistency 

the 8/14 cpc is centred on day 11 so won’t necessarily pick up an end week 2 pattern ( and it won’t have any eps included at weekends)

it’s just a wintry straw at the moment ….

Sorry, what's not included at weekends?

[E17boy]

Hi Peeps,

Hey hope you are all well and good. I can’t believe the past months of waiting for this season have finally passed and yes it’s time to start the train journey for the new season.

Firstly welcome all the newbies, I have been on here for a few years now so nice to see some of the old posters.

Been a mixed day today here in NE London Walthamstow. Had rain this morning and a few passing showers later on but far and few in number. It also was somewhat fresher than yesterday. Looks like this week is going to be mixed and at some stage there is going to be wet and windy conditions, but at long last temperatures seem to be pegging back a bit as we go through the week being close to near the normal.

So what is in store for our journey through this season, who knows but I do hope for at least some potent cold snaps and snow . I am sure there will be some booms and some downgrades and disappointments , but us coldies will never give up our love for lives on

Hope you all have a great time here

THE SEARCH FOR OUR WINTER WONDERLAND HAS BEGUN

take care all

OH one WARNING 

You’re entering the Bermuda Triangle zone where it is well known for tasty 16 day charts to have mysteriously disappeared in the past. So be aware.

kind regards

[Uncertainty]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

Largest eps cluster at day 15 isn’t a million miles from the gfs op 

 

There’s a lot of different options in amongst even those 20 members, enough to make that cluster look gfs-esque but the possibilities are far more diverse. 
 

Still lots of evidence to suggest a pattern change is coming mid November but to what, as you correctly surmise, is elusive at present.

23 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

Sorry, what's not included at weekends?

The NOAA charts are computer generated over the weekend using NAEFS data which is not derived from the ECMWF.

Edited October 30, 2022 by Uncertainy

[Eagle Eye]

The buzz is getting real here, I reckon I'll be doing more than my once a week Olivia chosen document post with some actual forecasts.

[tight isobar]

On 25/10/2022 at 12:21, tight isobar said:

We got “rattling “ into the layers- things are likely to change in dramatic alleys!. Strat/trop- disturbance is setting in.. the USA will as (ever) see the dripping , @ vortex finding. But disconnect of format puts a probable carve into the polar vortex as a whole @ mid November!! Then things change rapidly... And the notability sways to the euro side... the angular momentum- And warm pocket advection STRENGTH into the arctic is striking heading into early early winter!.. we’ll keep a steady hand 🖐 and watch to see if the beef dripping of layers.. fall on our bread ?!

“Hopefully now”.. my post last Tuesday may begin to make some sense - to some that seemed bewildered .. see ya all soon as that mad ride starts to rev up And the ops/ raws start clasping-

Edited October 30, 2022 by tight isobar

[johncam]

Just had a look a the latest GFS , what is the point of it going out so far , its always all over the place from run to run 

[Lightfox]

 

9 minutes ago, johncam said:

Just had a look a the latest GFS , what is the point of it going out so far , its always all over the place from run to run 

It likes to test our faith  

Edited October 30, 2022 by LightningFox92

[Rain All Night]

It does feel like it's picked up a scent these last few runs...

Edited October 30, 2022 by RainAllNight

[damianslaw]

15 minutes ago, johncam said:

Just had a look a the latest GFS , what is the point of it going out so far , its always all over the place from run to run 

To be expected, at 15 days + margin for differences run to run are huge. Usually when there is such variance from run to run, suggests scatter and a signal of high uncertainty. It's the trends at the 6-8 day mark that should be viewed first.

It does end again with high pressure on the scene, a classic trough-ridge-trough pattern with low pressure to west and east and high pressure surging north through the UK. 

[Don]

23 minutes ago, johncam said:

Just had a look a the latest GFS , what is the point of it going out so far , its always all over the place from run to run 

To keep us lot entertained lol!!

[Beanz]

2 hours ago, tight isobar said:

“Hopefully now”.. my post last Tuesday may begin to make some sense - to some that seemed bewildered .. see ya all soon as that mad ride starts to rev up And the ops/ raws start clasping-

Your posts haven’t made sense for years

[PiscesStar]

 a strong azores high seems to be a contributing factor in this pattern shown on gfs. Seems to be stuck in a looped pattern.  More of the same then. More runs needed. 

[bluearmy]

6 hours ago, johncam said:

Just had a look a the latest GFS , what is the point of it going out so far , its always all over the place from run to run 

use it for getting a feel for a global pattern type 

6 hours ago, damianslaw said:

To be expected, at 15 days + margin for differences run to run are huge. Usually when there is such variance from run to run, suggests scatter and a signal of high uncertainty. It's the trends at the 6-8 day mark that should be viewed first.

It does end again with high pressure on the scene, a classic trough-ridge-trough pattern with low pressure to west and east and high pressure surging north through the UK. 

There is a transient upper ridge thrown up to our west over the next few days - gfs and gem make more of it thereafter as it leaves a wedge of higher heights to our nw, ready to engage with any future amplification which seems likely given events upstream. Add in the upcoming n pacific ridge which looks like being pretty big and it does seem likely that the NH pattern will become blocked - and scandi does seem to be the most likely place for our fella - which should aid trop wave disruption of the strengthening strat vortex 

but scandi certainly isn’t a shoe in at this range as you say