Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter

[IDO]

The D10 mean for ECM remains very good:

The potential remains in FI, but solid support for chances post-D12.

[tight isobar]

The EC ooz ones... what’s not to like

[Singularity]

Notably colder air making its way to our near-east by Friday in the 00z GFS & especially ECM runs.

Enough to give me pause for thought. What if the low to our south corrects weaker and more squashed in shape as we’ve so often seen in similar situations past?

That would shift the boundary with milder air southward and add more or a northerly component to the easterly flow.

Something to watch out for while the retrogression stage is still at such long lead time (details not worth studying yet).

[blizzard81]

24 minutes ago, Sceptical said:

Stick with the Met office  

The met office have been left wanting again imo. It's been obvious for the last 48 to 72 hours that we will be under the influence of a stiff easterly as we enter Dec but the met have not muttered the word at all in their updates. I expect them to do this today. However, not for the first time, way too cautious and behind the curve by quite a long chalk. 

 

[mb018538]

8 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

The EC ooz ones... what’s not to like

Apart from the fact that it’s not even that cold….it’s great!

[blizzard81]

7 hours ago, steveinsussex said:

The pro’s are not seeing anything in the models to indicate any level of cold other than normal chillier winter type weather. I think many in here are getting carried away.

Of course. No beasterly but cmon, the charts we are seeing now are so far removed to what we have been served up over the last decade or so as we approach Dec. That's good enough for me right now. Let's see where it takes us. 

[Day 10]

Checked this mornings runs, very happy with were we sit heading into December.

ECM 144

Now logging out to go and enjoy the day with the Mrs, back later refreshed and ready for the evenings runs .

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Hold on to your hats as we see fluctuations and tweaks in model runs.  For me we are entering a possible holding rinse and repeat phase.  I’m not anticipating a retrograde of the HP anytime soon to Greenland (and we don’t want that too soon, let’s have that early Jan!! ).  I think we’ll have this HP to our East interacting on and off with the AZH over the coming weeks.  Generally HP will dominate.  I think there’ll be episodes where LP will dissect the HPs as we are forecast to see next week.  I’m very happy with what I’m seeing.

BFTP

[nick sussex]

These early season cold pools to the east are very likely to change between runs .

And because of the time of year you’re more likely to see cold pooling developing in situ as the land rapidly cools .

The nuisance is of course low pressure developing over Iberia rather than further east towards northern Italy .

The main takeaway from the outputs is of a blocked pattern with the UK in the game for some wintry weather rather than 5-0 down at half-time .

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

14 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

The EC ooz ones... what’s not to like

Agreed.  Mulled wine, Xmas shopping and a pretty chilly easterly….a good start

 

BFTP

[tight isobar]

5 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Apart from the fact that it’s not even that cold….it’s great!

Given.. but the mean/ members have to start somewhere ay!!!

[bluearmy]

output becoming ever messier  in the short/medium term 

the extended eps are cross model not quite as amazing as yesterday 

the trough to the south headed a little north and the greeny ridge a bit less solid later week 2 as it drifts a bit further nw too. 

too far away to get any knickers in a twist but clearly not going to count down like clockwork (does it ever !) 

[blizzard81]

Just now, bluearmy said:

output becoming ever messier  in the short/medium term 

the extended eps are cross model not quite as amazing as yesterday 

the trough to the south headed a little north and the greeny ridge a bit less solid later week 2 as it drifts a bit further nw too. 

too far away to get any knickers in a twist but clearly not going to count down like clockwork (does it ever !) 

It would be a little boring if it did

[jules216]

Mostly a combination of west based -NAO and "Romanian high/Portuguese low" exactly what I said before!

[sheikhy]

Means are fantastic!!ive been banging on bout that low to the south west for ages!i been sayin it needs to be more over italy but as long as its to the south west always a risk of milder med air!!!hopefully we see that low squished a bit more in future runs to let the cold in further south from the east!!!im loving what im seein up to 192 hours as it seems to be an upgrade and for me thats where it matters if you actually want a higher chance of seeing something cold at the very least!!this day 10+ stuff i view just for interest and if it comes off then brilliant otherwise we know how it goes 9 times out of 10 !!!

[Anthony Burden]

Morning all,well we get the high pressure block to our north east so let the battle begin low pressure trying to advance north against the cold block normally occurs much later in the season if it happens at all.Good blogs in regards to this scenario could of course go either way let’s hope for a cold strengthening northern block,great watching for this early part of winter.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

OK... is there anything we can learn from the 00zs

Yes, I believe I've found a key development / the origins of this unique upcoming pattern as it is set to play out

Taking the GEM at +48h  very important zone to be focused on 

 by +84h we see its developed into a lobe of the TPV 

And if we look how the GEM sees the synoptics evolving ...

This is a fair expectation for the pattern by end of December week 1 into week 2

Pair that with...

GEFS Ens mean  

GEM Ens mean 

And as it has such severely cold air associated with it definitely needs to be observed closely.

 

 

 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

eps - all aboard the west based -NAO train

[nick sussex]

2 minutes ago, Adam lufc said:

This is the frustrating aspect!

A signal has been spotted and sadly changes everything these were full on special last night, why does this always happen

Northern blocking is still there and there’s plenty of time for that to set up more favourably . 

As you can see from the ECM day ten it’s a messy picture but certainly with lots of potential .

 

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

eps - all aboard the west based -NAO train

Yep. Was a nagging concern to me yesterday and a definite trend today and needs to stopped starting with 06z  @jules216 you clearly know your onions please keep posting and I look forward to ramp soon.

[jules216]

6 minutes ago, Adam lufc said:

This is the frustrating aspect!

A signal has been spotted and sadly changes everything these were full on special last night, why does this always happen

Sadly, and more sadly Europe hasnt seen a deep freeze setup since 02/12 with perhaps exception of January 2017 and very end of feb 18! And it certainly isnt because of "lack od trying" I dont write down failed attempts but from every year experience ať least 3-4 spells slipped away "last minute" this is not concerning UK only but more widespread regions. 

 

[sheikhy]

6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

eps - all aboard the west based -NAO train

any charts you can post feb?!!

[blizzard81]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

eps - all aboard the west based -NAO train

There is a bit of a split from day 8 onwards. However, if most of the ens were going west based, I'm sure the debilt ens would be trending much milder than what they actually show this morning. If anything, the majority go colder again later on. 

[Rayth]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

Yep. Was a nagging concern to me yesterday and a definite trend today and needs to stopped starting with 06z  @jules216 you clearly know your onions please keep posting and I look forward to ramp soon.

Of course it’s got to verify first before the back slapping and handing out medals to themselves occurs , models are changing frequently, what was shown yesterday has changed today but can also revert back 

[Beanz]

16 minutes ago, Adam lufc said:

This is the frustrating aspect!

A signal has been spotted and sadly changes everything these were full on special last night, why does this always happen

As you rightly suggest, it always happens - meaning, the models change every day…and have done since the dawn of their existence.  

Remember, the weather will be what it is, the models don’t make the weather, they just try to predict it.