Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

Is anyone else getting annoyed by the constant chopping and changing between the GFS op and para in terms of the wild swings run to run.... Will be glad to have only one next week 

Honestly mate ive not even bothered with the para i been payin attention to just the one which is the op!!they both perform just as bad as each other lol!

[Singularity]

About time we had a deterministic run that has the west Euro low respond to a steep thermal gradient to its east & head that way.

Such outcomes have been surprisingly sparse in the ensembles pre +10 days.

[Cheshire Freeze]

2nd GFS op run making a right meal of getting to Greenland heights

Stand a better chance this run than we did on the 12z

[TSNWK]

So we going with the op then

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

2nd GFS op run making a right meal of getting to Greenland heights

Stand a better chance this run than we did on the 12z

Them height rises S of Greenland are a lot better on this run and there looks to be a cold seepage coming down from E greenland,...could be a stonker of a run this.

 

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

So we going with the op then

All day long!!

[January Snowstorm]

Great run this evening by the Op

At 240hrs everything is in place for a mother of all cold spells from the Northeast!!

[sheikhy]

Control takes iby low south aswell!!out to 120 hours so far!!

[Allseasons-Si]

Just now, January Snowstorm said:

Great run this evening by the Op

At 240hrs everything is in place for a mother of all cold spells from the Northeast!!

And we are still under -5 to -8 uppers up to this point.

great run.

[TSNWK]

saying that // is not to be sniffed out this evening... 

[Bats32]

Lovely run. One almighty cold spell in the offing now.

[chapmanslade]

10 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Honestly mate ive not even bothered with the para i been payin attention to just the one which is the op!!they both perform just as bad as each other lol!

Ignore any runs at your peril. They are the way they are for a reason, unless you know exactly why that is, and can be certain why they are 'wrong' then you cannot discount them.

[Ice Day]

At 252, and look where the majority of the PV resides.  Just what we want!

There's some absolutely frigid cold bottled up within it, which is nice!  Even better, it's trying to head out way.

[Cheshire Freeze]

I love the fact that we're seeing hints that heights may shear off further to the E along with the Greenland HP (with cold trough inbetween). That means that we may see continued stress on the vortex...something that a Greenland High alone wouldn't provide.

Edited November 27, 2022 by CreweCold

[Geordiesnow]

10 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Is anyone else getting annoyed by the constant chopping and changing between the GFS op and para in terms of the wild swings run to run.... Will be glad to have only one next week 

But that's the nature of model runs, there is always going to be variation on the theme. It's quite clear we are heading into a period of quieter weather with a continental influence with chilly but largely stable easterly airflow. One of those though a little vortex of low pressure within the flown could enhance PPN but Im not too convinced the air is cold enough for snow though but one to watch perhaps in terms of something unexpected. The threat of milder air getting drawn up via that Iberian low is certainly plausible also. 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

I love the fact that we're seeing hints that heights may sheer off further to the E along with the Greenland HP. That means that we may see continued stress on the vortex...something that a Greenland High alone wouldn't provide.

could still do with an alaskan high working in tandem though.

[Allseasons-Si]

And remember peeps,...the NAO along with the AO is tanking neg which means to say that the Atlantic will not get in so the source of weather will be either E/NE or of a northerly flavour,the AO will put brakes on the tpv for a while so we have a good chance of a cold spell.

[tight isobar]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

could still do with an alaskan high working in tandem though.

Watch out for that nxt 24 hrs.. it’s primed .. pac ridge banking.. anyway let’s sound out the late ones for revert @00z suites.

Edited November 27, 2022 by tight isobar

[January Snowstorm]

It's not far off a 2010 event now!! Still some detail to be ironed out but the odds are quickly getting stacked!

The great thing aswell is that solar input will be minimal at this time of year which should mean if the white gold did come along it would likely hang about

[minus10]

WOW....

[Cheshire Freeze]

What a NH pattern that is on the para 

Even ahead of the main course the UK is pretty frozen

[Allseasons-Si]

Who want's to go through the parratroopers black tunnel,...gear up

[Bats32]

Wonder when the Exeter lads will start to give tentative hints of what's to come?!

[Allseasons-Si]

Just now, Bats32 said:

Wonder when the Exeter lads will start to give tentative hints of what's to come?!

When it get's down to 0 hrs

[LightningLover]

2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

When it get's down to 0 hrs

Indeed, need to make it past FI first... T6!