Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Snowy L said:

Thing is though even when a major cold spell does verify we always have a wobble in the models 5-10 days before. It happened with the 2013 cold spell after the SSW and it happened with the 2018 beast from the east, so we are no closer to finding out what will happen.

Well I agree, we need to give this 48 hrs, but if the EC flinches then it's over for another 2 weeks (in terms of deep cold advection and snow chances).

Ideally the GFS would move to the ECM in the morning. IDEALLY.

[Lukesluckybunch]

18 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

 

Has to be said that the gfs mean at 180..is not as good

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Here I am as cool as you like awaiting for all the ens to run out before making any judgement on whether this evening is pushing the trends backwards. You CANT make assumptions based on every op run,and you can't expect every op run to show you the desired outcome that you crave!

Seriously folks some of you are gonna end up with burnout before December is even out! I have to laugh at the amount of mentions Exeter get over any cold snap,regards to being late to the party!  Can you imagine if some of you lot were responsible for that monthly write up! Yep you guessed it...it would be a completely new write up every 12 hours twice a day,and most likely based on a gfs op run! Now you can see why the pros hold fire and reserve judgement till these trends are set in before making any snap judgements.

I'm sure you will feel happier if the morning runs are better...but any more stressing and you maybe waking up to an altogether different kind of runs (,if you get me drift)

PATIENCE IS REQUIRED HERE,ITS STILL 1 DAY AWAY FROM WINTER PROPER! at least give it 6 weeks before losing your rags over the output your seeing and not liking.

Edited November 29, 2022 by MATTWOLVES

[Polar Maritime]

I think some folk need to realise the models don't exactly reflect the weather at the flick of a switch. Especially looking at charts into the extended runs..

[blizzard81]

5 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

But.. the 18z GFS absolutely does not match the amount of toy throwing going on by some at the moment? Ouch, just got hit by a rattle!

That is the ensemble mean.. it's blocked & cold. Granted a lack of proper deep cold but that's been the case all along now, nothing has changed. Literally nothing.

Further to Crewe's comments, I've got to say that much vaunted high to our north west is becoming much more lop sided with each and every mean chart that is posted. It's becoming more and more horizontal. Not good. 

[Midlander]

1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Has to be said that the gfs mean at 180..is not as good

 At least now I won't be surprised if I see a lack of posts in the morning. I am hoping for a miracle

[Cheshire Freeze]

At 192 there's maybe 7 out of 30 GEFS perts that vaguely resemble the ECM op at that timeframe. I'll check at D10 when they come out to see if there's improvement.

[Northwest NI]

Like the ECM I’m gonna stick my flag in the sand for a decent cold spell, around10 days to 2 weeks. Like @damianslaw post above, there is some ludicrous manoeuvres in the GFS latest offering that just don’t look right. Winter is coming 

 

 

Edited November 29, 2022 by Northwest NI

[Snowman.]

The GFS is sending positive heights very far north into the pole with the ECM being more conservative.

The conservative option is actually a blessing for us as it creates a strong Icelantic high, which allows for for a better alignment in regards to the trough, for once we want this option as it allows a deeper convection of cold air through Europe.

 

[danm]

23 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Well that's it. Game over. Winter is over. A GFS Det run has spoken. 

Despite the 18z ensembles being an improvement on the 12z run, and the 18z ensembles seemingly offering little support for the det, and the EPS/ECM & UKMO being absolutely solid, it's over because of a single GFS det run. 

Nothing has changed from this morning or yesterday really.

Well said. Far too much hand wringing going on. 

[ryanoroo]

"keep the Faith... Keep the Faa-iiith... LORRRRRD we've gotta Keep the Faith!" - John Bon Jovi Circa 1992 

Edited November 29, 2022 by ryanoroo

[Continental Climate]

There is just too much blocking around isn't there. A horrible scrussian high that's just sagging about not doing anything. A greenie high that's getting weaker by the hour and now we are all pinning our hopes on the ECM and I can't remember when this scenario worked out well for us. Still it will soon be Xmas. 

[blizzard81]

5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

At 192 there's maybe 7 out of 30 GEFS perts that vaguely resemble the ECM op at that timeframe. I'll check at D10 when they come out to see if there's improvement.

That really is a bad omen. And just to reiterate to some people - This is model analysis - not toy throwing. 

[sorepaw1]

The chart below T+192 

I would say even if the south doesn't get snow at daylight hours

The temperature would be cold enough for wintery showers during the night in places and a keen frost.

The 18z gfs still isn't a South Westerly. I can't really see anything overly mild tbh.

I'm sure there's a more seasoned forecaster on here that would correct my post and I welcome a model run with a mild outcome.

Keep lucky everyone and drive safely to work in the morning in fog prone areas.

[Geordiesnow]

17 minutes ago, Tidal Wave said:

No, the extent of high latitude blocking - when was the last time early December saw such extensive high latitude blocking (which actually seems to be a hinderance).

It is a huge irony that there is too much blocking, too much yellow and oranges and very little blues and purples. Especially as some of the blocking is not ideally placed like the 1050MB high over western Russia, you want the centre more over Scandinavia.

As for the Greenland high how many times we seen over the years a Greenland high becomes more of a mid Atlantic high due to shortwaves being a spoiler,far too many times and I'm always a little dubious when it comes to the ECM model wanting to over amplify things. 

So it feels unless something develops as a surprise in the initial easterly flow, a snowy set up still feels a bit of a way off. 

[Roger J Smith]

I've been reading about how good the ECM was, however, the uppers on that run are only marginal at best. Then I had a look at recent sea surface temperatures, 14 C still showing up in southern portions of North Sea. That is going to kill off all but the best organized cold easterly pushes for some time yet. If on the other hand anything really cold does develop, those unusually high SST values would spell extreme snow potential. I think it will happen at some point later in the month or in January. It's too bad if the next two weeks fail to capitalize on a very weak Atlantic but at the moment, there just isn't enough of a cold push to get out of the transitional zone. Would expect a couple of weeks with localized wintry precip and frosts, generalized cold rain showers and slightly below normal temps. 

[booferking]

Gfs control

[Don]

20 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Thing is though even when a major cold spell does verify we always have a wobble in the models 5-10 days before. It happened with the 2013 cold spell after the SSW and it happened with the 2018 beast from the east, so we are no closer to finding out what will happen.

I actually avoided model watching in the run up to the 2018 BFTE.  Perhaps I should do that again and all will be well?!!

[blizzard81]

Just now, Don said:

I actually avoided model watching in the run up to the 2018 BFTE.  Perhaps I should do that again and all will be well?!!

I think you should be banned for a week and all will be fine

[Don]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

I think you should be banned for a week and all will be fine

If that's what it takes then definitely!! 

Edited November 29, 2022 by Don

[blizzard81]

Just now, Don said:

If that what it takes then definitely!! 

Too right Don. Take one for the team. We will always remember the gesture

[Beanz]

Firstly, if you’re going to hang your hat on models showing these type of synoptics at anything past T96 then it’s never nailed on, in the slightest…ever.  So whether you’re celebrating or slitting your wrists, it shouldn’t be on runs at 192hrs out, which is what too many folk are doing.  That’s just a recipe for disappointment.  Don’t blame the models.  

Secondly, the GFS para is the GFS op as of later tomorrow, so perhaps wait and see what comes out in the wash over the next 24hrs.  It shouldn’t matter, but who knows.  

Thirdly, we’re looking at some decent seasonal weather ahead of us in all of the model output we’ve seen today.  
 

 

[Met4Cast]

25 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Well I agree, we need to give this 48 hrs, but if the EC flinches then it's over for another 2 weeks (in terms of deep cold advection and snow chances).

Ideally the GFS would move to the ECM in the morning. IDEALLY.

The ECM isn’t showing any deep cold now? It hasn’t been this entire time. It’s not like deep cold has suddenly vanished, it wasn’t there to begin with. 

[Snowy L]

13 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

The GFS is sending positive heights very far north into the pole with the ECM being more conservative.

The conservative option is actually a blessing for us as it creates a strong Icelantic high, which allows for for a better alignment in regards to the trough, for once we want this option as it allows a deeper convection of cold air through Europe.

 

I'm not sure, the map is deceiving without latitude lines but ECM takes it further into the Arctic, I think the main problem is as @blizzard81 says the Greenland High becomes lopsided with the GFS. The reason is because the GH never manages to truly split the vortex and make it out to the other side of North Pole. If you have the Siberian lobe of the vortex still linked to the Canadian lobe then you are never going to get those cold low pressures sinking South to the UK.

[Skullzrulerz]

I can understand people's disappointment this evening, ECM was a great run and somewhat supported by UKMO.

Sadly the GFS hasn't exactly done that.. at least not yet.

However the main issue is the lack of deep cold, yes it will get a tad more chilly getting temperatures to around average to sightly below.

You won't however find widespread snowfall, let alone snow showers on low ground.

Understandably people wanted to see something of the likes of 2010 along other events, but as fate seems to be at current it's looking unlikely at this stage.

How ironic considering all of this blocking (which is quite impressive compared to recent years) which is supposed to send very cold/cold air and yet there's simply none nearby.

By no means that somehow models can change considering the uncertainty with the blocking and other drivers.