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Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter

Community Team

By Community Team
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

With winter now almost upon us, the model thread is getting ever busier, and as such it's important to keep it on topic. So, please keep your posts to discussing the model output, and for more general winter weather chat please use the winter thread.  Or, head to the moans and ramps thread.

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Posted by Paul,

Please don't discuss this here (there's comments on the guide if you want to ask a question etc), but obviously in a busy thread like this, it's hard to cater for everyone's needs and wants in terms of the content they want to see. But, for those who want a more curated experience, following members and then keeping up to date with their posts through the activity feed may be a great way to get to the content you want, without having to wade through the content you don't. So, here's a guide

Curate the content you see on the model thread

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted
2 minutes ago, seb said:

ECM wobble corrected by the looks of it.

Impossible to say at 96. 168 was the issue from this morning. We should have an idea at 144 this evening 

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MattH
MattH

Morning. The overall evolution remains consistent, which now carries high confidence, with regards to the blocking high evolving over the coming days, initially bringing a lower theta-w airmass f

chionomaniac
chionomaniac

I’ve not been concentrating on slight inter run differences today, but it still looks like the best  block is building for over 10 years, and that this won’t be some transitory event. Obviously there

MattH
MattH

"Professionalism aside for a moment and, overall, for all us 'coldies' I don't think there can be a better scenario than what continues to be modelled as we go into the first half of December. There's

Posted Images

seb Community Regular

seb

Posted
  • Location: Singleton, Kent
  • Location: Singleton, Kent
Posted
3 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Steady on Seb lets not celebrate yet.

 

3 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Please don't jinx it! 😂

Lol. I think it’s a beauty so far.

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
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Posted

If you could pinpoint one exact location of where you'd want your heights to be centred, between Iceland and the southern tip of Greenland would be that place

image.thumb.png.d6825363392c1d5a1793e44597c0885b.png

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Snowboy111 Enthusiast

Snowboy111

Posted
  • Location: Guernsey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, gales, snow, thunder and more snow
  • Location: Guernsey
Posted
1 hour ago, MATTWOLVES said:

I think you've got about as much chance of meaningful snowfall in Guernsey and Jersey as we have of Jim Nettles returning to front Bergerac.

Dare I say it folks...a massive massive ECM 12Z in just under an hour..it could be the biggest since the one last night,and be even potentially bigger come tomorrow night!

Popcorn at the ready...cue the Eastenders drum roll.. dum dum ,dum dum Dummer dum.

 

Jim ?? That his twin brother ? 😜

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January Snowstorm Accomplished

January Snowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
Posted
6 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

If you could pinpoint one exact location of where you'd want your heights to be centred, between Iceland and the southern tip of Greenland would be that place

image.thumb.png.d6825363392c1d5a1793e44597c0885b.png

Couldn't draw it better!

The best run yet I do believe (so far)

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Skullzrulerz Maestro

Skullzrulerz

Posted
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
Posted
2 minutes ago, on the coast said:

ECM 120 is unreal? What has brought this on??

 

2 minutes ago, on the coast said:

ECM 120 is unreal? What has brought this on??

A lot of drinks at the pub 🍻

Still, happy so far with the results let's see what the longer term is.

 

 

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Mark wheeler Maestro

Mark wheeler

Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
Posted (edited)

Ecm 144 looks to be going west again . Perhaps not quite so much, happy to be corrected if wrong .

Edited by Mark wheeler
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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted (edited)

image.thumb.png.0e0d475ef195725a6c4acebe28017515.png
 

I suspect we will get a better version of the GEM 12z output. It looks like we could get heights building across Northern Scandinavia here.

The day 6 chart is solidly cold with low heights overhead. You would hope there would be some precipitation circling around that low.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
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Posted

Slightly better than the 00z as it's a bit further south...

ECM 144...

ECH1-144.thumb.gif.84abc7c2bc43000fec589bc3b0b37c65.gifECH0-144.thumb.gif.817c6bc5d62b419ea21abea8fedd811c.gif

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Day 10 Maestro

Day 10

Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
Posted
Just now, Allseasons-si said:

Slightly better than the 00z as it's a bit further south...

ECM 144...

ECH1-144.thumb.gif.84abc7c2bc43000fec589bc3b0b37c65.gifECH0-144.thumb.gif.817c6bc5d62b419ea21abea8fedd811c.gif

Yes, trending the right way 👍

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Geordiesnow Accomplished

Geordiesnow

Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
Posted
1 minute ago, Mark wheeler said:

Ecm 144 looks to be going west again .

Not as amplified as this morning run, it's a very good run upto 144 hours and because its not as amplified then I don't think we will see thing go as far west as this mornings run! 

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Metwatch Maestro

Metwatch

Posted
  • Location: Coventry, 96m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow in winter, thunderstorms, warmth, sun any time!
  • Location: Coventry, 96m asl
Posted

Jesus Christ ECM absolutely blows the other 12z det runs in terms of bringing the cold by next Wednesday.

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

image.thumb.png.0e0d475ef195725a6c4acebe28017515.png
 

I suspect we will get a better version of the GEM 12z output. It looks like we could get heights building across Northern Scandinavia here.

It's better than its 0z run, that's the important thing. Yes the trough is going slightly west but it's doing that at a slightly more southerly point than the 0z did. Plus it has another chunk of the tpv dropping south behind the initial thrust.

Edited by CreweCold
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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
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Posted
17 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Ecm looking poised at 96 hours!!!!

Ecm looking poised at 96 hours!!!!

And for anybody hard of hearing....ECM looking poised at 96hrs 😉

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Eskimo Accomplished

Eskimo

Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
Posted (edited)

Anyone know why it takes models to eek out frames of data over a period of x-amount of time? Why does it take the ECM, for example, nearly an hour? I'm not complaining, it adds to the drama but just wondering. 

Edited by Eskimo
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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted
1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

It's better than its 0z run, that's the important thing. Yes the trough is going slightly west but it's doing that at a slightly more southerly point than the 0z did. Plus it has another chunk of the tpv dropping south below the initial thrust.

Svalbard incoming #2😁

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Vikos Seasoned

Vikos

Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
Posted

tick....tick.....tick.......

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