Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter

[Weather-history]

Severe frost, a week Friday morning on ECM

[Vikos]

I like this new Scandi-High building up...again...

[Battleground Snow]

Surely ECM is correct at day 5 over the rest, 

I assume because the high is so strong it sends the jet much further south, clearing that pesky low near Iberia out the way that we've been complaining about for days 

Edited December 1, 2022 by Battleground Snow

[Tim Bland]

9 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Deep snowfall…..

 

BFTP

00z was actually snowier ..see below comparison 

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Im waiting for someone to complain about the ecm like a walley!!!for me its the best run of the day!forget the gfs and its fi rubbish from the 12z this ecm brings it sooner which is why i pip it over the 12z gfs!

Too cold to snow?

[Snowman.]

Excellent ECM but if you want perfection then a correction south of about 100 miles or so would make it so. 
 

Looking increasingly likely we’re to experience a decent period of cold weather. 

[Paul]

Latest blog from Nick is an interesting read on what the models are suggesting is to come next week 

Chilly easterly this weekend, but hints it may turn even colder from the arctic next week

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

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A chilly easterly flow for all over the weekend, with temperatures a little below average, however, next week there are signs that it could turn even colder from the arctic, with an...

 

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, Weather-history said:

Severe frost, a week Friday morning on ECM

Raw showing -6 so I'd say -6 to -8 minima fairly widely...isolated spots (with snowcover) -10C

[Guest]

ECMWF 216 hrs - seriously cold under that I would think and no sign of an end.

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, Vikos said:

I like this new Scandi-High building up...again...

Yes, for longevity we need the HP to be recycled

[Snowman.]

Just now, Tim Bland said:

00z was actually snowier ..see below comparison 

Following snow charts is ludicrous at this range, I understand the idea of taking a run at face value but we have seen time and time again random shortwaves and convection being picked at D3. 
 

But I will concede, place the centre of that low SE 100 - 150 miles and it’s golden. 

[seb]

5 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

I think there is similarities between this run and this mornings run, it's a good run though because you get the initial proper cold blast followed by slack low pressure with the potential for some nice frosty weather. 

Obviously if you want something more long term, the initial northerly needs to be further eastwards but amplification to remain as good as the ECM shows and not like the UKMO run for example. 

 

I think the differences are far greater than similarities?

 

 

[Cold Winter Night]

ECM at 216h, going for a renewed Scandi High.
Excellent developments.

[Eagle Eye]

12 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM T144 looks seriously wintry. Although, lows approaching from the NE aren't always as snowy as they might look.

Uh oh, @tight isobar is going to be coming after you now

[danm]

1 minute ago, Tidal Wave said:

ECMWF 216 hrs - seriously cold under that I would think and no sign of an end.

A very similar set upon December 18th 2010 gave the south and SE a massive dump of snow:

[Malarky]

12 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Amazing ecm at 168 hours and a massive improvement over the 00z!!

“Son, did I ever tell you about the time we had to dig our car out on the A6 near Birstall?”

“What dad, last Thursday?”

[Notty]

1 minute ago, Cold Winter Night said:

ECM at 216h, going for a renewed Scandi High.
Excellent developments.

Perhaps bits of the vortex will keep dropping off and hitting us until next March. We would have had enough by then

[Geordiesnow]

3 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Surely ECM is correct at day 5 over the rest, 

I assume because the high is so strong it sends the jet much further south, clearing that pesky low near Iberia out the way that we've been complaining about for days 

Only if it's get its amplification into Greenland right, if not then maybe we will see something closer to the initial GFS/UKMO projections of the northerly thrust being further eastwards. 

ECM definately feels like high risk but high reward as you don't want things too far west otherwise you end up with scraps but it's the same if things are too far east also but you probably got more room for error as the GFS shows(e.g the significant cold does eventually arrive). 

[chris55]

2 hours ago, Tamara said:

And here it is. The retrogressing block signal that is now fully advertised by numerical models.  Very robust -ve East Asian Mountain Torque (shaded blue above 30N and the red line on the torque graph) essentially creating an extra tropical wind-flow vacuum in the Pacific as the starting pistol to a powerful downstream retrograde signal. As suggested yesterday it's a biggie, and there are ramifications from this signal for quite some time to come which is the fascination for me.

The question remains long term how far the retrograde evolves and how the -ve NAO behaves accordingly. The intuitive reasoning remains that attritional battle ground towards NW Europe culminates in an attempted breakdown - which tries to re-set to another Atlantic trough and amplifying downstream ridge. Does the Eurasian feedback reload this as another Scandinavian block, or, does the polar jet then prevail and create a more traditional zonal pattern with heights across mainland Europe?   

Finely balanced in my neutrally objective opinion as much more work will be required from the tropics next time round to assist, with angular momentum at a lower base level than it has been up to this -VE EAMT. Reasoning behind that has been given fully already this week.  I don't personally, at this time, believe the Eurasian feedback signal on its own is enough.

However, all of that is some way ahead. From my own point of view though, the evolution of the diagnostic remains the focal interest.

 

Absolutely Tamara, the daily model runs will ultimately inform us of the eventual outcome. Lots of fun to be had following the events. Hopefully you’ll come along for the ride, that is what makes the MOD such an interesting, informative and addictive place to be. All levels of expertise deciphering all sorts of fluctuations from the models.

Absolutely love it  

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, danm said:

A very similar set upon December 18th 2010 gave the south and SE a massive dump of snow:

Reached here too, great day, but S/SE and W Midlands had over a foot, 10cms or so here

[Tim Bland]

3 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

Following snow charts is ludicrous at this range, I understand the idea of taking a run at face value but we have seen time and time again random shortwaves and convection being picked at D3. 
 

But I will concede, place the centre of that low SE 100 - 150 miles and it’s golden. 

I don’t disagree, details far from certain, just replying to a comment on this run that referred to “Deep snowfall” …there’s deep cold, but not deep widespread snow on this particular run for most 

[GSP]

Looking more complicated now, and it really makes you wonder if it’s going to work out like this.

Certainly charts and airflows we are not used to seeing.

[Frosty.]

There’s certainly more twists and turns to come until this enters the reliable timeframe!..but for now, these ECM 12z op charts are pleasing.. anything thats not mild these days is.. a victory!…  

Edited December 1, 2022 by Frosty.

[Jason M]

2 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

Following snow charts is ludicrous at this range, I understand the idea of taking a run at face value but we have seen time and time again random shortwaves and convection being picked at D3. 
 

But I will concede, place the centre of that low SE 100 - 150 miles and it’s golden. 

In many ways yes, but it's interesting in this set up because that snow distribution chart would be very much what you would expect to see. The lack of wind promotes cold but isn't particularly helpful for generating lots of snow. In summer months this set up would bring huge storms but at this time of the year, its very cold but fairly dry. This would also be a nightmare for energy companies as it would really hit wind power. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

The 12z looks further South with lower Heights. Either way we have potential fireworks coming up next week,and even further into that run we are well placed for good old surface cold and given the time of year and low Sun will be a very good added bonus.

I said after viewing the gfs ens that I was expecting a solid ECM...How did I know?

1..My pure expertise of reading the models and background signals? Wrong.

2..Im a gambling man so took a wild punt? Wrong again.

3..im actually well versed with the paranormal mediums and have a very dear aunt called Meg?? You got it...

Brilliant output and always best to do it with a smile on your face and a sparkle in your eyes...makes it so less stressful,which at this time of year is the last thing we want.