Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Just seems to be getting better run by run. The GEM is pretty insane. Some will be getting buried if that verifies! Every model seems to be singing off the same hymn sheet too, which is that bit more reassuring. 
ECM, over to you. 

[scottishandy]

Can I post a +384hr GFS chart JFF?

Cause there's nothing much to see before this. 

 

 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Ukmo looking great this morning..as is the the gfs too,all the action really starts as early as next Wednesday with that trough dropping down from the north..that seems to be the most popular theme right now..let's see what the ECM can offer

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Almost 60 years later… It couldn’t could it?.. 

[Ali1977]

The GEFS mean at day 12 still going strong for the cold pattern, big upgrade on the 18z you’ll see - this will be classed as a pretty severe spell I reckon. 

The control at day 12 is amazing , a full reload of northern blocking , likely leading to more severe cold. 

Edited December 2, 2022 by Ali1977

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

We're seeing a change of direction in the mid-longer term here...one where the HP doesn't completely retrogress but slips back towards Scandi instead.

I'm telling you now, a surface HP forming there could prolong this spell to Christmas, potentially getting more severe. Both the GEM and GFS are attempting to re-amplify towards the E coast of USA/Canada at the same time as pressure rising again across Scandi. They're attempting the holy grail...

Yes seeing the HP bulge towards north Scandi is a sign it re-establishes itself to elongate this .  A great sign imo, excellent start.  Drop 1 coming up

 

BFTP

[John88B]

54 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

It does indeed make a refreshing change.  This is the first major chase for me that doesn’t involve a SSW - 2010 was before my time, so it is fascinating to watch it unfold.  That’s not to say it won’t involve a SSW a some point, but that’s for the future.  It is of note that the lower strat at 30 hPa is nonetheless involved in this anyway with the split vortex.  

I've heard it said on here before by a few posters that a proper severe cold spell is becoming impossible without a SSW.

Well this up and coming cold spell could put that theory to bed.

[Mike Poole]

Just now, John88B said:

I've heard it said on here before by a few posters that a proper severe cold spell is becoming impossible without a SSW.

Well this up and coming cold spell could put that theory to bed.

Yes, my own conclusion is that that is becoming true for the second half of winter.  But I have always pointed to 2009 and 2010 as evidence that a severe cold spell can occur in early winter without a SSW.  These years are recent enough in the scheme of climate change to still be highly relevant possibilities, as we are seemingly going to find out this year! 

[PiscesStar]

1 hour ago, Battleground Snow said:

The lack of vortex in the Canadian sector has to be a massive positive, nothing to put pressure on the Northern blocking, with any low pressure systems far enough south to disrupt, can't say I've seen a set up like this in December before.

It's VERY exciting could this be the build up to Christmas I've been dreaming of... Gfs going strong in its output today 

[TSNWK]

Morning gang..once again wonderful contributions from the overnight and the up  with the lark crew.. I actually woke before the alarm this morning and thought oh I need to get up and check the 00zs

my contribution is this mornings UKM 168 cold and cyclonic and if switch through 144 l 156 l 168 you just see heights starting to raise over Norway suggesting scandi heights are a theme on ukm as well. Here’s to a pulsating day of upgrades…

Edited December 2, 2022 by TSNWK

[Decemberof2010]

Before the ECM comes out I think it’s best to try and keep our feet on the ground. Having scanned the GEFS at 240 I was only able to cherry pick ONE chart. Here it is

 

[MattStoke]

GFS raw data for my location, which is a very central point of the country with modest elevation (150m asl). Not the sort of start to winter we normally see in the U.K.!

Edited December 2, 2022 by MattStoke

[Mike Poole]

ECM T120:

I notice we’re getting more margin of error with the cold air than when the pattern first showed.  

[Lukesluckybunch]

ECM appears to be going slightly west again at 120..hope not too much!

[TSNWK]

Ecm 120 similar timings and location with trough drop as last night.. just a tad nervous if it will drop west  or wash out over us next frames.

[Mike Poole]

ECM T144 and looks very snowy:

Edited December 2, 2022 by Mike Poole

[Captain Shortwave]

ECM day 6 vs yesterdays day 7

   

Quite similar to yesterdays, however slight tweaks in the shape of the trough and a slightly more robust Atlantic ridge means that the cold air is steered more directly towards the U.K. with less spilling into the Atlantic. Also note that this is the first run in a couple where the trough looks like being re enforced by another pulse of cold air pushing out of Siberia. This could be a fantastic run.

Edited December 2, 2022 by Captain Shortwave

[TSNWK]

Ecm 144 I’m not sure.. looks like it did drop west a little too much too our north..

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Ecm 144 I’m not sure.. looks like it did drop west a little too much too our north..

But look at that Greeny block, it’s huge. Looks great to me - hopefully I’m right  The expanse of cold air is most notable, lots of wiggle room and all roads lead to cold now. 

Edited December 2, 2022 by Ali1977

[TSNWK]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

But look at that Greeny block, it’s huge. Looks great to me - hopefully I’m right

Hopefully for once it will slightly topple which is no bad thing from current position towards scandi and shunt the trough directly south.. that’s what I would hope to see 168

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Hopefully for once it will slightly topple which is no bad thing from current position towards scandi and shunt the trough directly south.. that’s what I would hope to see 168

Not toppled yet but look at that deep deep cold building in Scandy - hopefully on its way here!! 
What a first week of winter viewing

Edited December 2, 2022 by Ali1977

[Malarky]

It’s coming home! Thanks everyone for your insight. Love learning on here.

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Not toppled yet but look at that deep deep cold building in Scandy - hopefully on its way here!! 

Hope so.. come on 192 as I will admit to being a little concerned it’s washing out over us…

[daz_4]

11 minutes ago, John88B said:

I've heard it said on here before by a few posters that a proper severe cold spell is becoming impossible without a SSW.

Well this up and coming cold spell could put that theory to bed.

Well this could be a great setup for UK, for the rest not so much. For me proper severe cold spell would be whole Europe in the freezer but looking at the GFS ENS for Central Europe, it's nothing to write home about. 

 

[Ali1977]

That’ll do , what a chart with another shot of WAA heading up through Greenland. This is gaining traction here, not just a cold spell now , maybe an extreme type event (longevity rather than extreme temps) 

Edited December 2, 2022 by Ali1977