Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[throwoff]

14 minutes ago, carled said:

I get bewildered by the excitement on the model thread followed by the BBC app and TV forecast showing nothing but a bit of frost and sunshine in the vast majority of the country. One group or t'other is in for egg on their collective face. 

A lot of the wise old posters in the mod thread have seen it all before, so often snow in the UK is a case of nowcasting not forecasting. If NW had a motto in the winter it would be 'get the cold in first' which we are about to have in spades. Once that is set up everything is to play for.

[carled]

2 hours ago, throwoff said:

A lot of the wise old posters in the mod thread have seen it all before, so often snow in the UK is a case of nowcasting not forecasting. If NW had a motto in the winter it would be 'get the cold in first' which we are about to have in spades. Once that is set up everything is to play for.

Well, yes, but you'd have thought that the BBC know that too. And the MetOffice. And Accuweather, and so on... They're looking at the same charts and, for some reason, aren't getting excited about the virtual certainty (reading the model thread) that half of England is about to be blanketed in snow! You'd think they owe it to the public to at least alert them to the possibility of said snowfall, if it was in any way falling into 'possible' as a scenario, right?

[Summer Sun]

Yellow ice warning issued for parts of the east close to the coast from 6pm tomorrow to 12:00 Thursday

Some disruption is likely due to icy surfaces

What to expect

• Some injuries from slips and falls on icy surfaces
• Probably some icy patches on some untreated roads, pavements and cycle paths

Frequent wintry showers running down the east coast are likely to fall on frozen surfaces in places, leading to the formation of icy patches. These showers are likely to fall as snow on high ground, with the potential for a few centimetres to accumulate on the North York Moors.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2022-12-07&id=f8266282-3a5f-4d9d-a25d-0201b9def940&details

 

[robert]

Not long started to snow here in the outer hebridies. I’m on the northwest, right next to the atlantic. Hope you get snow

️ my second winter here after moving  to live here lasts April 2021,from Stoke In Trent.

 

 

[DJ Fart]

1 hour ago, robert said:

Not long started to snow here in the outer hebridies. I’m on the northwest, right next to the atlantic. Hope you get snow

️ my second winter here after moving  to live here lasts April 2021,from Stoke In Trent.

 

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IMG_7323.MOV

Hey, I spent a lot of time up there on the Isle of Lewis back in the early noughties!  Had a girlfriend from Shawbost (or Siabost in Gaellic).  I miss the place at Christmas!  (And her, but that's another story!)

Re what the models are showing us at the moment, it's in danger of going from boom to bust in the space of about three hours!  One minute we're looking at Day After Tomorrow stuff, then it's "warm incursions".  Ha ha!  Couldn't make it up!  If the models can go from such huge wintry possibilities to nothing then there's really no point at all in looking that far ahead.  Or, rather, not posting anything 8-10 days away.  When will people learn?!  Same every year...

[Weatherman_93]

30 minutes ago, Dj fart said:

 

Re what the models are showing us at the moment, it's in danger of going from boom to bust in the space of about three hours!  One minute we're looking at Day After Tomorrow stuff, then it's "warm incursions".  Ha ha!  Couldn't make it up!  If the models can go from such huge wintry possibilities to nothing then there's really no point at all in looking that far ahead.  Or, rather, not posting anything 8-10 days away.  When will people learn?!  Same every year...

73 pages and counting! (MOD topic) 

Hi Phil

Edited December 6, 2022 by Weatherman_93

[cobbett]

4 hours ago, carled said:

I get bewildered by the excitement on the model thread followed by the BBC app and TV forecast showing nothing but a bit of frost and sunshine in the vast majority of the country. One group or t'other is in for egg on their collective face. 

to be fair to the MOD thread - no one is suggesting and nor do the models show much snow this week - just a bit chilly - it's next week where fun and games could start and of course thats way too early for the BEEB or metoffice to comment on

[Lampostwatcher]

Ideally most the country would want 

The low in the Atlantic coming into our cold air which will be in place from thursday till at least  next weds 14th 

Latest gfs ecm ukm 

Do not show much snowfall for 80% of the country 

Until then 

 

[The Enforcer]

12 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

Perhaps build a giant wall that the storm won’t be able to climb over?

We already have one. It's called the M4.

[Andy Bown]

I don’t see how getting snow right now would be a benefit anyway. Surely the ground is too warm after the summer and warm Autumn. It might settle briefly but then would likely melt - that would provoke a negative response from many nirvana seekers in here!

In the lee of Salisbury Plain I have only had one sub zero temperature since early April and that was marginal late last week!

We need and are likely to get a series of hard frosts to dry out and lower the ground temperature. Then snow would be preferable as it would settle AND stick around.

[Brassmonkeylily]

oh no another MAD day .... looks like the mild push from the SW wins the day next week .... the toys are in orbit

[The Enforcer]

10 minutes ago, Singularity said:

In times past, if there's going to be a classic southward trend to the northern limit of a low running into cold air, it's tended to begin when the event is at around 5 days lead time. So we've still got 2-3 days to wait in that regard - though any persistent ensemble trends in the meantime are worth noting. The EPS behaviour has my attention for that reason - if the 12z again shifts the boundary north, that will ring a distant but undeniably present alarm bell for me.

Let's assume the next 12z runs show a 'worst-case' scenario of the lowland snow-line being over the north coast of Scotland for 12z Wednesday 14th. Of course, subsequent runs will then move that line around for better or worse, but let's say the average movement is 20 miles south per GFS run, which is not a huge amount. Over the 32 runs between T+192 & T+0 that would be sufficient to push the snowline below the south coast. If using ECM or Meto, it would need to average 40 miles southwards per run over 16 runs between T+192 & T+0, still not a huge amount.

[V for Very Cold]

Without telling anyone to suck eggs, it’s the trends over several runs that are more important than a single set... it can lead to pendulous emotions lol

[cobbett]

We have lift off for London area - you'll need a magnifying glass tho

[Bald Eagle]

Over analysis leads to murky waters in Mad..I'll simplify it. Dry and cold for most, some snow for some. That's based on a computer algorithm. Everything can and will change

[The Enforcer]

9 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

ICON and UKV correctly phase the trough - needs to be watched. These 2 models alone carry significant weight.

How do we know if it is correct without a T+0 chart to compare it to? Also, the two models have preciptation in completely different locations, so I guess the inference is, the even where the development is the same, the outcome could be very different?

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, The Enforcer said:

How do we know if it is correct without a T+0 chart to compare it to? Also, the two models have preciptation in completely different locations, so I guess the inference is, the even where the development is the same, the outcome could be very different?

its likely to happen. icon and ukv together are a strong combo

fence between wales OR nw eng - n mids atm

eastwards progression is a function of intensity

needs watching

[Iceaxecrampon]

4 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Yellow ice warning issued for parts of the east close to the coast from 6pm tomorrow to 12:00 Thursday

Some disruption is likely due to icy surfaces

What to expect

• Some injuries from slips and falls on icy surfaces
• Probably some icy patches on some untreated roads, pavements and cycle paths

Frequent wintry showers running down the east coast are likely to fall on frozen surfaces in places, leading to the formation of icy patches. These showers are likely to fall as snow on high ground, with the potential for a few centimetres to accumulate on the North York Moors.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2022-12-07&id=f8266282-3a5f-4d9d-a25d-0201b9def940&details

 

Ice =  Slippy? 
 

Whouldve though it. 
 

Rain = Wet? 
 

 

 

[johncam]

To be honest last thing I want is frontal snow that turns to rain then becomes milder , want the snow on the ground for a fewvdays at least 

[V for Very Cold]

Christmas is early for cold lovers!

whether the snow lovers are equally chuffed... I think it’s going to be nowcasting 

[The Enforcer]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Ukmo day 6 brings the low across and the snow line central midlands (Norwich to Birmingham) 

To clarify, am I correct in assuming "snow line" in this context means snowfall remaining as snowfall and anything south of that is snowfall to rainfall (possibly back to snowfall eventually)?

[The Enforcer]

4 minutes ago, Midlander said:

For those who were wondering what the UKMO would like, if it came off, which as we know at that lead-time is very unlikely. 

Rain here, of course. But I have very little confidence in a chart that shows rain over places such as Yorkshire and East Anglia under this scenario.

[markyo]

For weird folk like myself this is the best spell of weather since 2018, best early spell since 2010. Loving the feel, that opening the door in the morning to that lovely Winter air, so clean, so fresh, beats any summer weather hands down, especially after vile heat of this summer. might even have to sneak my heating on soon for an hour....ok may be half an hour, don't want to go crazy!

[RJBingham]

Take care when walking past a pram. severe danger of being struck by flying toys 

[Sceptical]

12 minutes ago, RJBingham said:

Take care when walking past a pram. severe danger of being struck by flying toys 

Has it gone tits up on the Mad thread again?