Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?

[nick sussex]

I think the ECM op is on acid but I suspect that  mean is hiding a lot of drama to come .

The big 3 now have the shortwave dropping down from Greenland by day 7.

You now have a series of variables . How far west does it drop , where if any is the phase point with the Atlantic low .

Will height rises to the ne as in the GFS help to send it packing .

So fasten your seat belts coldies it’s going to be a bumpy night. A play on a line delivered by that wonderful actress Bette Davis in IMO one of the great Hollywood films from a bygone era All About Eve which I shall likely have to change to All About That Shortwave ! 

Edited December 4, 2022 by nick sussex

[seb]

4 minutes ago, IanT said:

It is always fascinating to see posters queueing up to say that the “…models are struggling…”. I assume this comment is based on the lack of consistency in model output. Whilst there will be only one resolution, at this point multiple evolutions are possible - as reflected by model output..!

Don’t be too quick to conclude that models are struggling because their output is inconsistent. It may be better to recognise that there is still significant uncertainty given the set of starting conditions.

I think that is the point people are trying to make

Struggling = not being able to provide any kind of agreement even at 5/6 days whereas during more common setups we can usually rely on a good few days beyond that.

The models are doing what they’re meant to do, it’s just that the output isn’t helpful to make much of a forecast. That’s not withstanding random hurricane-like low pressure systems being modelled lol.

[lawrenk]

4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Pretty Superb ECMWF 12z ensemble mean tonight if you’re a coldie?..which I assume the vast majority are?…otherwise, why is it so busy  busy in here.. hmmmmm?!!

 

 

Well let’s be honest there’s nothing on TV.

[sheikhy]

Fantastic update on the 12z guys  been away most of the day and tomorrow as well but back for now my minions!!!!!clearly missed some wiked cold runs this evening!!after viewing the ecm what a run up until 216 hours!!!!that is one huge outlier and i mean massive!!not worried one bit as it will come around in the morning!!!enjoy the snow and cold as we are now 2 or 3 days away from the start!!!!

[Malarky]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Fantastic update on the 12z guys  been away most of the day and tomorrow as well but back for now my minions!!!!!clearly missed some wiked cold runs this evening!!after viewing the ecm what a run up until 216 hours!!!!that is one huge outlier and i mean massive!!not worried one bit as it will come around in the morning!!!enjoy the snow and cold as we are now 2 or 3 days away from the start!!!!

Hope you’re ok mate means doing you proud at the mo.

Edited December 4, 2022 by Malarky

[Frigid]

Funny how the worst of the charts are in Fl, normally the other way around lol. Models really want to break down this cold spell.

ECM is a stinker but if you want cold, then GFS 12z is the one!

2m temperatures are very cold with continuous ice days 

  

  

  

Snowmageddon - i know its pointless to look at these in Fl but it's mesmerizing to say the least 

528 dam line over us most of the run. 

[Derecho]

16 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I think the ECM op is on acid but I suspect that  mean is hiding a lot of drama to come .

The big 3 now have the shortwave dropping down from Greenland by day 7.

You now have a series of variables . How far west does it drop , where if any is the phase point with the Atlantic low .

Will height rises to the ne as in the GFS help to send it packing .

So fasten your seat belts coldies it’s going to be a bumpy night. A play on a line delivered by that wonderful actress Bette Davis in IMO one of the great Hollywood films from a bygone era All About Eve which I shall likely have to change to All About That Shortwave ! 

Yeah there is a lot going on. We don't want the Greenland shortwave to phase with the low over us and we don't want the Azores low to deepen too much and bring milder air in. Still think there is a risk of a mild switch here but the EC ens are a bit reassuring.

Would be nice if the Greenland high strength is being underplayed and the shortwave heads towards us instead as part of a northerly reload.

Or alternatively, the Greenland shortwave phases with the Azores low, keeping it west. That would be interesting. 

Edited December 4, 2022 by Quicksilver1989

[Eagle Eye]

Just a little bit messy.

[Malarky]

2 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Just a little bit messy.

It’s like someone walked into a weather shop and said “I’ll have one of everything please”.

[RabbitEars]

19 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I think the ECM op is on acid but I suspect that  mean is hiding a lot of drama to come .

The big 3 now have the shortwave dropping down from Greenland by day 7.

You now have a series of variables . How far west does it drop , where if any is the phase point with the Atlantic low .

Will height rises to the ne as in the GFS help to send it packing .

So fasten your seat belts coldies it’s going to be a bumpy night. A play on a line delivered by that wonderful actress Bette Davis in IMO one of the great Hollywood films from a bygone era All About Eve which I shall likely have to change to All About That Shortwave ! 

Nick please could you pop up a chart showing the shortwave of which you speak? I can't access the charts at the moment and am interested as to why and when it might disrupt. 

[SqueakheartLW]

10 minutes ago, Frigid said:

Funny how the worst of the charts are in Fl, normally the other way around lol. Models really want to break down this cold spell.

ECM is a stinker but if you want cold, then GFS 12z is the one!

2m temperatures are very cold with continuous ice days 

  

  

  

Snowmageddon - i know its pointless to look at these in Fl but it's mesmerizing to say the least 

528 dam line over us most of the run. 

Remember GFS is first to pick up a trend, then the others get on board whilst it goes off on one before it comes back on board. If GFS in FI is cold then this gives us coldies hope of an extension to the cold or even a reload after a slight easing

[nick sussex]

7 minutes ago, RabbitEars said:

Nick please could you pop up a chart showing the shortwave of which you speak? I can't access the charts at the moment and am interested as to why and when it might disrupt. 

I used to do charts when I wasn’t on iPad .  But you can see the shortwave on the day 7 NH view on the big 3 models located se Greenland west of Iceland .

The ECM is a shallow feature a bit further east than the GFS and UKMO . It’s easiest to view on the GFS.

 

Edited December 4, 2022 by nick sussex

[Derecho]

EC control is crazy.... hurricane to the west of the Azores in mid December....

[weatherguy]

The shortwave in question is this feature, I believe

[Eagle Eye]

14 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

EC control is crazy.... hurricane to the west of the Azores in mid December....

Poor mid Atlantic fish (I know that makes no sense). Swim a couple hundred miles and they are freezing and then Swim towards the Azores and find themselves flying back towards the cold.

Edited December 4, 2022 by Eagle Eye

[Howie]

Sorry for the cliche but this definitely has 2009/2010 vibes to it. Ver cold for London 

[nick sussex]

5 minutes ago, weatherguy said:

The shortwave in question is this feature, I believe

Thanks for that . The big 3 have this to varying degrees of development . 

[LRD]

4 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

EC control is crazy.... hurricane to the west of the Azores in mid December....

Didn't realise the GEM Control went out to 384 like GFS

It's a bonkers run and this is a cherry-picked frame from that

It's an unusual set-up

[damianslaw]

Just had a look at the weather archive charts from previously cold Decembers, 1981 and 2009, the current synoptics and outlook bear very strong resemblence to the synoptics of both those years, perhaps more so 2009 - quite uncanny, that was on the back of the same type of November... that was an el nino east based ENSO, we have a la nina east based ENSO this year behaving like an El Nino. I looked at the synoptics just after christmas, low pressure threatened to charge in from the SW but heights fought back in the run up to New Year. 

[Frosty.]

Wowzers, these GEFS 12z perturbations mid month and England winning 3-0…!!!!!!!..life is good.. !
 

Edited December 4, 2022 by Frosty.

[sukayuonsensnow]

51 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Every time someone says that I'm convinced they curse the next runs

Yup. 

Every time someone says the FI charts are like 1963, 1981, 2009/2010, 2010 etc. the odds of them coming off become much less.

Also unless you're in Northern Scotland if you want it to snow just say we might get wintry showers, don't say "snow". You'll scare it away

[Day 10]

1 hour ago, Day_9 said:

No, there has been consistent output now forecasting a week/10 day long snap.

 Look at the ensembles.  Absolute consensus.  Anything after that timeframe is always spaghetti whatever the model…….. enjoy the next week or so if cold is your thing.  It is entirely conceivable that it becomes entrenched.  

Great post Day 9

[MATTWOLVES 3]

24 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

EC control is crazy.... hurricane to the west of the Azores in mid December....

Looks like a wild member of the pack as well regarding 850s. 

I've just noticed though a few straddlers towards runs end with that -10 being threatened!

Early sign of a festive run up to Xmas or just me talking through mistletoe and wine  

Either way folks something is coming home..I bloody well insist  either way a decent chunk of members keep us pretty cold.

Edited December 4, 2022 by MATTWOLVES

[northwestsnow]

I spy an EC  cluster going for a slider/Easterly

[bluearmy]

day 9 largest eps cluster which the op is lumped into ……I think we’d have a different tone in here if this was the 12z op!