Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?

[Snowy L]

 

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Think ECM might be going the way of the GEM here, at T144:

Would be nice if the UK low wasn't too far North though, risks sending everything to our Northwest.

Yes indecisive Scandi High screwing us over again. We miss out on the northerly and an easterly.

Edited December 5, 2022 by Snowy L

[icykev]

If she slides looks to be a screaming easterly incoming @+168 with scandi heights building and a Genoa low!!

[Mike Poole]

ECM T168, welcome to a world with half a vortex!

[TSNWK]

dont like 168 ECM - is that Benulux heights forming.

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T168, welcome to a world with half a vortex!

You'd have to say that is a great chart. Even if the LP tries to swing up, somewhere would get a snowstorm with pressure from the cold air to the N

[Froze were the Days]

27 minutes ago, icykev said:

If she slides looks to be a screaming easterly incoming @+168 with scandi heights building and a Genoa low!!

If what slides?...that LP (near the north of the UK) has been modelled to stay in that position for the last couple of days or a col to form and has never been forecast to slide if that's what you're referring to.

Edited December 5, 2022 by Blessed Weather
Comment removed.

[Derecho]

6 minutes ago, icykev said:

If she slides looks to be a screaming easterly incoming @+168 with scandi heights building and a Genoa low!!

Not much cold pooling over Scandi on this run though and the Greenland high could do with being stronger, still it's subject to large changes at this point. Not as good as some of the other output this evening but can be salvaged if we can get some cold air from the NW.

And right on cue, 192 has cold uppers imminent from the NW!

Edited December 5, 2022 by Quicksilver1989

[Snowy L]

4 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

dont like 168 ECM - is that Benulux heights forming.

Yes this can so easily turn Southwesterly. Scandi High 500 miles further east we get a northerly, Scandi high 500 miles further west we get an easterly, this is an incredibly frustrating run.

Possibly just about rescuing a northerly on this run, would be a lot less painful if the Scandi high can just do one and stop being a nuisance.

Edited December 5, 2022 by Snowy L

[Howie]

I really hate how this surprise tropical storm has complicated things, but we'll see

[Bats32]

Delete.

Edited December 5, 2022 by Bats32

[weatherguy]

Good grief what a chart!

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, Bats32 said:

Horrible run tbh.

eh?

[Ice Day]

We could be about to hit the jackpot here!  

 

[on the coast]

Wow what a chart at 192. Shame is no way near in the reliable

 

[frosty ground]

Just now, weatherguy said:

Good grief what a chart!

Exactly what I said to my self when I saw it.

[Derecho]

1 minute ago, Bats32 said:

Horrible run tbh.

It's still a great run, just complicated.  

[Tim Bland]

2 minutes ago, Bats32 said:

Horrible run tbh.

Horrible ?  For Glasgow ?  Are you sure?! 

[Bats32]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

eh?

Just saw that wow.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, on the coast said:

Wow what a chart at 192. Shame is no way near in the reliable

 

The general theme is exactly the same as its 0z run...maybe even a tad colder in its later frames. This is one time where people are focusing on specifics when they should be looking at the overall hemispheric set up.

[Day 10]

Bitter air to the north, what a chart!

[Jackski4]

I really wish those of you making flippant comments before the run has even come out fully or been analysed by someone more knowledgeable than you could just hold off a bit 

[booferking]

Wow deep reload incoming

[Kasim Awan]

The low centre completely stalled out longitude wise from 144/168, - good sign. If it stalls, the cold to our NE will win as that airmass is NOT stagnant...

[danm]

Just now, Jackski4 said:

I really wish those of you making flippant comments before the run has even come out fully or been analysed by someone more knowledgeable than you could just hold off a bit 

Completely agree. If you aren’t sure what the charts are indicating, please let the run unfold. 

[swilliam]

The shape of the low is much better on this run - plenty of undercutting