Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?

[Battleground Snow]

5 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

The less a model run makes of the East Euro/Northwest Russian high, the infinitely better it looks over the UK. Every time.

True  the cold from Asia has had to thread at needle in previous days, now it can march west unimpeded 

Even @jules216 must be happy with this run

Edited December 5, 2022 by Battleground Snow

[Johnp]

Hey Siri, show me where the M4 is:

 

[weatherguy]

15 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

"The GFS is still very cold"

Erm because of the low height's and a stagnant air flow from a surface perspective it may well get very cold but to be honest this is not out of the ordinary at all to have 850's between -4/-8, it's the set up that's different, a 3 wave long pattern, Atlantic dead, vortex in destruction mode, to have the trop dictating the way of play early December is alarming to say the least, 

But for low land Britain it will be at times marginal know getting round that.

I'd be alot happier with 850's sat at -10 but beggers can't be choosers! 

 

Yes, in that part I was referring to the net result at that timeframe ie. what would "currently" be felt on the ground at that time.  I believe I alluded to the excellent NH pattern within that post and, if not made clear there, then certainly in others!

Anyhow, the more the models play around with a scenario of LPs tracking south, the more we introduce continental air with low dew-points at which stage any potential lack of "deep" cold uppers becomes more of a moot point.

Plenty of sliders on the 18z!

Edited December 5, 2022 by weatherguy

[Jackski4]

@Day 10 thank you haha no clue how you guys do that 

[MJB]

Slider too far S , but impressive chart all the same 

Edited December 5, 2022 by MJB

[Ali1977]

If this run plays out there will be many planes that don’t get above freezing from this Thursday for potentially a week, especially with a dusting of snow

[Day 10]

1 minute ago, Jackski4 said:

@Day 10 thank you haha no clue how you guys do that 

Bookmark this link mate

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

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Météociel propose le modèle GFS à maille moyenne (0.25 degrés) jusqu'à 240h. Cartes de prévision des précipitations, des orages, de la neige, du vent, des températures à tous les...

 

[feb1991blizzard]

The only thing is those snow charts - how many times have i seen one with nearly the whole country with lying snow - loads - how many times has it actually happened - probably a handful in my life - the last around the turn of decade from the naughties into the 1ties.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Some of the output is simply stunning. One of my favourite synoptics is that little Griceland wedge of heights.

[Snowmadsam]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

The only thing is those snow charts - how many times have i seen one with nearly the whole country with lying snow - loads - how many times has it actually happened - probably a handful in my life - the last around the turn of decade from the naughties into the 1ties.

That’s why I ignore them and just look at the Synoptics. Saves the panic!

18z is looking nooiiiccceeeee for cold fans 

[blizzard81]

Just now, CreweCold said:

Some of the output is simply stunning. One of my favourite synoptics is that little Griceland wedge of heights.

Control looks to be going the same way as the op.

[Ice Day]

Ignore our little isle for a moment, just look at the state of the NH.  One word, bedraggled!

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, blizzard81 said:

Control looks to be going the same way as the op.

I might have to get the big coat out

[weirpig]

And the cold continues. Lows going under cold building even more in Europe  a sustained period of cold to very cold days on the cards 

[JR319]

7 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Hey Siri, show me where the M4 is:

 

‘What does a Midlands North event mean and look like?’ 

[Ali1977]

The control follows the op with a easterly edge to it by the weekend 

[Derecho]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Some of the output is simply stunning. One of my favourite synoptics is that little Griceland wedge of heights.

Yup I moaned about the output earlier (though it was still good) because I felt something like this could materialise. God knows where the CET would be if this came off. Please 00z's follow this lol.

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I might have to get the big coat out

I treated myself to a new one a few days ago. First one for 12 years

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Come on  folks calm yaself and for god sake tell no one of the potential yet! 

Thames streamers...North Sea hum dingers...Irish sea sizzlers and English Channel chasers we could be looking at the lot..

Edited December 5, 2022 by MATTWOLVES

[Duane S.]

The 18z raises the bar even higher!

This could be a memorable month

[Day 10]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

The control follows the op with a easterly edge to it by the weekend 

The continued trend of the cold pattern upgrading as it moves into the reliable, very good indeed. The Big Freeze 22/23 is on it's way!!

[January Snowstorm]

Yep all about whether it's a new trend that repeats in the morning.... no doubt the 18z would be a disruptive, memorable event!! Has it gone off on one though, I guess another night where we all wake up at 4am. It's about my 8th night in a row lol

[blizzard81]

Just now, Day 10 said:

The continued trend of the cold pattern upgrading as it moves into the reliable, very good indeed. The Big Freeze 22/23 is on it's way!!

Really good to have upgrades at relatively short notice. It has that 'feel' to it. 

[Allseasons-Si]

WOW,...just got in from work and the order on the menu for today's 12z and now 18z is....

>>and>>

=

we could looking at a prolonged cold spell for at least ten days

go's to check rest of the thread.

 

Edited December 5, 2022 by Allseasons-si

[Ice Day]

6 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

The control follows the op with a easterly edge to it by the weekend 

Yes, and a couple of frames further, the Control is still bringing winds from the east and is very similar to the op