Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?

[Fozfoster]

13 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Is that a polar low I spot trying to come down at 216?

And it’s still hard work to keep cold for any prolonged period

[IanT]

Which will prove to be the strongest feature on the charts? The block or the incoming low? That is the question…

[That ECM]

Looks like Ed is going to wake up with his stomker

Edited December 7, 2022 by That ECM

[John88B]

18 minutes ago, IanT said:

Which will prove to be the strongest feature on the charts? The block or the incoming low? That is the question…

It may be wishful thinking but I  believe the block. 

It's not going to be resolved for a few days so it's going to keep us on our toes.

In the meantime a a few days of seasonal cold, frosty weather to enjoy is nailed on.

Edited December 7, 2022 by John88B

[IrelandWeather]

36 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

The ENS are good, all the other models are great - the new GFS is  

Big upgrades this morning

Ah come on with this type of commentary. The GFS was king yesterday because it kept up a positive outcome for cold compared to the ECM 12z and now we’ve picked one out of the bin and placed the GFS there. 
 

ECM is good but GFS showing, as the ECM did yesterday, it’s not a done thing. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just to point out, even the poor GFS has surface temperatures struggling to get above freezing for many right out beyond D10. We’d still be frozen. The upper levels warm but the surface doesn’t…due to being near winter solstice.

Edited December 7, 2022 by CreweCold

[mulzy]

MOGREPS upgrading all the time.  Solid support for it to remain cold.  Just a few runs go to mild in London.

[Nick F]

Morning, only just seen all the 00z runs and the models certainly providing more twists and turns than an Agatha Christie novel.

The blocking high near Iceland seems to putting up enough of a fight against the low from the tropics as it moves NE to beat it into submission and weaken it NW of the Azores before sending it packing eastwards in a sorry state towards France next week on EC, GEM and UKMO.

However, the 00z GFS has a weaker high near Iceland which seems not to put up such a battle against the troublesome tropical low, which drifts a bit too far north for our liking and doesn't do the pattern any good thereafter. 

GFS looks on its own, so maybe one for the sin bin.

Edited December 7, 2022 by Nick F

[clark3r]

Although lovely charts again this morning this is far from sorted and models will be chopping and changing run to run. My concern is with the gfs assembles with more milder ones turning up. Let’s hope upgrades keep coming next few days  

[Weathizard]

We’ve seen the GFS(more so than others) countless times struggle with Atlantic energy against a firm northern block, the GFS ensembles are pretty unanimous when it comes to the period after the 12/13th with a clear breakdown of cold, so if the GFS has got this wrong it’s going to be a spectacular failure, you have to give it that.

[IanT]

The NOAA analysis suggests that the low may be less developed than is modelled, as it is subject to some disturbance during its formation. Perhaps that means it will be weaker?

[Bats32]

The GFS ensemble's are a worry to me, they can't be that wrong, can they? Let's see what the ECM ens say.

Edited December 7, 2022 by Bats32

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, Bats32 said:

The GFS ensemble's are a worry to me, they can't be that wrong, can they? Let's see what the ECM ens say.

I’ve seen GEFS suites flip in the space of one run, on more than one occasion.

[irish1]

A big drop back in 850 temps on this morning ECM ensembles with OP having a lot of support!

[mountain shadow]

2 minutes ago, Bats32 said:

The GFS ensemble's are a worry to me, they can't be that wrong, can they? Let's see what the ECM ens say.

Oh they can. There have been times when the full GFS ensembles were completely wrong.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, irish1 said:

A big drop back in 850 temps on this morning ECM ensembles with OP having a lot of support!

Yes, the cold cluster has cemented since yesterday’s 12z suite. The op and control sit in the middle of that cluster.

[Weathizard]

6 minutes ago, Bats32 said:

The GFS ensemble's are a worry to me, they can't be that wrong, can they? Let's see what the ECM ens say.

The GFS and ensembles are all ran from a similar start data point with slight variables so if the GFS has got the development of the tropical system wrong early, it’s likely the whole suite is about as useful as a chocolate teapot.

Thats not to say it is wrong 100% as the law of the sod means the model with the worst outcome often proves right

Edited December 7, 2022 by Weathizard

[That ECM]

2 minutes ago, Bats32 said:

The GFS ensemble's are a worry to me, they can't be that wrong, can they? Let's see what the ECM ens say.

 

2 minutes ago, Bats32 said:

The GFS ensemble's are a worry to me, they can't be that wrong, can they? Let's see what the ECM ens say.

Some are ok. The fact is that they have no idea where to place the low. Looking at met their guess is no further north than Swindon sort of area but this will change. 
has to be one of the best times for out hobby.

[Nick F]

Does look like the pendulum has swung back more in favour of cold staying through next week across all the UK this morning, but still too early to call, given the GEFS ens.

[Ruzzi]

4 minutes ago, Bats32 said:

The GFS ensemble's are a worry to me, they can't be that wrong, can they? Let's see what the ECM ens say.

I'd be more worried if it was ECM ensemble suite or mogreps. Personal opinion is that the gefs are more volatile and more prone to bigger wilder full suite switches than the others. The flip side to what you're saying is that mogreps are looking very promising on the most recent run and ecm ensemble improving aswell with a lot more support for the desired outcome than the milder one. All of the above have already been posted so I won't repost them.  With the volatility involved of such a complex and notoriously difficult to forecast system, there is never going to be a full rock solid support for one outcome, but the evidence this morning is that the there is more support for the low not to barrell through the UK too far north. 

Caveat is that there will absolutely still be flip flopping and its very much a sit back and watch for the time being.

[Day 10]

Not looking too far ahead at all....

The start of this cold spell is on our doorstep, I wonder where it will take us?

The first chart of each run, what a way to start Winter.....

UKMO, GFS, ECM

[seb]

Great charts this morning. ECM and GFS almost swapped places with the GFS now on its own, but overall more cross-model agreement to keep us cold. Still, nothing is nailed on so best to stick to not taking anything post Sunday for granted.

[throwoff]

16 minutes ago, Bats32 said:

The GFS ensemble's are a worry to me, they can't be that wrong, can they? Let's see what the ECM ens say.

The GFS has over the past few years been completely wrong multiple times in winter. It’s a bit like a dog with a bone, once it’s got hold of it sometimes it refuses to let go.

[Johnp]

1 hour ago, Ali1977 said:

Much better , delaying the low from the west. The GEFS look great on Wetterzentrale, they also delay the low and bring it across the south by T178 ish 

I’m confused. Everyone else is saying the GEFS are cr@p this morning. 

[Eagle Eye]

I don't know if this has been posted here before but here's what the NOAA have said about the development.

"A large non-tropical area of low pressure located over the central subtropical Atlantic about 800 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for development and a subtropical or tropical storm could form within the next day or two. By Thursday night or early Friday, the low will move northeastward over cooler waters and interact with a mid-latitude trough, limiting the chance for additional subtropical or tropical development of the system."

vs yesterday's 00Z, 06Z, 12Z and 18Z ensembles (00Z hasnt been added yet for today) for the track. Up until 168 hours for each run.

Clearly nothing is set in stone yet.