Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?

[Alexis]

I think every model is just throwing a dart at the map of the Atlantic for every run and deciding that's where it'll put the centre of the low.

[Jan 87]

When does the UKMO 168 chart become available?

Would love to see what happens to the low, blasting north or undercutting?

 

[radiohead]

Think I would trust the ECM at the 96-120 range more than any other model. Should be an interesting evening!

[Mark wheeler]

Just now, Jan 87 said:

When does the UKMO 168 chart become available?

Would love to see what happens to the low, blasting north or undercutting?

 

About 16:40

[Johnp]

Although a cold run, GFS is synoptic garbage in my opinion. It’s just so messy. ECM next please!

[Jan 87]

GEM out a bit more.

[Derecho]

What an absolute mess, models never handle these slider scenarios well. There was one infamous occasion in January 2013 when the GFS did a complete u-turn at 48 hours. The GFS 12z is bizarre with the UK in a col.

The UKMO is a battleground scenario! 

[ICE COLD]

Add GEM T144 to the mix

[Frostbite1980]

Im not sure this low heading further south is nailed just yet.

Still the scenario of it heading a little further north then moving SE..... that would be a dream synoptic.

Edited December 7, 2022 by Frostbite1980

[Tim Bland]

Mighty battle between East and West!

[Jan 87]

Scandi block inflating on the GFS

[Guest]

If you like cold weather then tonight's charts are fantastic.  GEM 168 hrs keeps it cold:

[GSP]

Think GFS was trying to bring it’s mild default in too early.

[Frostbite1980]

My god peeps how much fun is this? Normally its how wet and windy it will be..... this is a real treat

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, Jan 87 said:

Scandi block inflating on the GFS

The GFS has been sniffing around a Scandi block scenario over the past few runs.

I personally think it’ll be nearer Christmas when we see the Scandi block form.

Edited December 7, 2022 by CreweCold

[V for Very Cold]

It’s 4:30 in the afternoon.... and we have 200 on the MOD thread... how many this evening??

[danm]

Inevitable we’ll see more twists and turns and differences between model runs. Expect that to continue until this weekend at least.

[ICE COLD]

Gem T180

[bluearmy]

Just now, Tidal Wave said:

If you like cold weather then tonight's charts are fantastic.  GEM 168 hrs keeps it cold:

Gem on meteociel is 24 hours on - hemispherically it’s excellent for continuity on the broad neg AO pattern 

[Jan 87]

You just know ECM is going to poop on the parade. Never seem to get a full set of good runs!

 

[Cold Winter Night]

A development that was expected, GFS is making more of renewed Scandi heights.
Serious attempt this time at Day 9.

Polar Vortex fully gone from the Western hemisphere, cold in situ, Scandi High building: Classic winter developments.

[Mark wheeler]

More variation from Gem , but the theme is Cold

Edited December 7, 2022 by Mark wheeler

[Battleground Snow]

Tbf to the gem it was the first to pick up this new FI trend.

Corker by 180

Even with 4 different models, they are all finding a route to cold.

[ICE COLD]

The gfs is trying to bring in the beast lol 

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

The GFS has been sniffing around a Scandi block scenario over the past few runs. 

It’s like me in my early twenties on a Friday night at a club around 1-30 am ………. Thrashing about with no strategy and nearly always empty handed when it came to verification!