Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived

[Rossmcfc]

Scenes if this comes off on Tuesday...interestingly the arome sees the South West also seeing a bit of snow over the weekend from that pesky low..more charts to watch.

 

 

 

 

 

[Midlander]

Steady UKMO 12Z

 

Edited December 9, 2022 by Midlander

[Tim Bland]

Some widespread light snow in England on Tuesday?

[Snowman.]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Some widespread light snow in England on Tuesday?

Lot of marginality about there. 

[Johnp]

Just now, Tim Bland said:

Some widespread light snow in England on Tuesday?

Weirdest dry spell I’ve ever known!

I’m really liking tonight’s Icon, having gone all wedgy in the Atlantic. 

[Bristawl Si]

1 minute ago, Johnp said:

Weirdest dry spell I’ve ever known!

I’m really liking tonight’s Icon, having gone all wedgy in the Atlantic. 

The weather has been dry so far, though (for maj of the country); it's only 'future' charts showing precipitation.

[Tim Bland]

2 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

Lot of marginality about there. 

Away from far south coast (esp south west) it looks like it’s conducive to snow …

[Captain Shortwave]

The solutions going further north are a little different to the more northerly solutions of a couple of days ago. The low engages the cold air pushing south by the develop Scandi trough, this is a better angle of attack as cold air will wrap into the system as it moves east. There is still the risk of marginality if the low tracks further north, but is a safer route than the potential slider scenarios we saw previously.

Edited December 9, 2022 by Captain Shortwave

[sheikhy]

4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Some widespread light snow in England on Tuesday?

Makes sense!cold 850s freezing dew points all snow mate!!

[Johnp]

2 minutes ago, Bristle Si said:

The weather has been dry so far, though (for maj of the country); it's only 'future' charts showing precipitation.

I’m talking about people boldly predicting the next 7-10 days as being ‘bone dry’. 

[bluearmy]

Gem won’t drop its mid Atlantic phasing low heights bone ..

[nick sussex]

Still waiting for the UKMO day 7. 

It would be good if those two jet streams and associated lows over the USA and Canada could phase and stop heights escaping further from Greenland . 

As that troughing then moves east it could then nudge those heights into the Atlantic and add some forcing onto that upstream low.

Edited December 9, 2022 by nick sussex

[Johnp]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Gem won’t drop its mid Atlantic phasing low heights bone ..

I think it might work out ok on this run due to that little bit of energy breaking off to the south of us?

[Snowman.]

Just now, Tim Bland said:

Away from far south coast (esp south west) it looks like it’s conducive to snow …

Just interesting to see the GFS not to have the hash affect on the precip, I’d imagine that even over London heavy precip would be more of the snowy type. 
 

Just an observation really. 

[Snowy L]

Happens a lot ahead of an Atlantic low where there is widespread light snow. A lot of the time (and almost certainly this time due to lack of strong easterlies) it will just be light stuff giving a dusting but sometimes (1st March 2018 best example) it can give a better snow event than the actual Atlantic low itself. Given how dry this cold spell had been I'll happily take the former.

[Cold Winter Night]

7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Gem won’t drop its mid Atlantic phasing low heights bone ..

If that's what it takes to get a Scandi High for Christmas, then fine!

[northwestsnow]

GFS looks good

[V for Very Cold]

More impressive charts on this run AND more members confident in using the S**w word (hope I got away with it )

 

[warrenb]

I am struggling to see what the GEM is seeing that none of the others are, it is the complete opposite of GFS and Icon at 84 with regard to the mid atlantic, and really blows the low up.

[Sweatyman]

2 hours ago, Speedbird said:

 Hardly in the freezer for the UK and, meantime, the proper cold heads down towards Greece again . . .

Always to Greece. Every time. Guaranteed 

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

Always to Greece. Every time. Guaranteed 

Like now ???

[nick sussex]

No resolution tonight given the wild differences upstream between the models out so far . 

So the drama continues ! 

[Weathizard]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

No resolution tonight given the wild differences upstream between the models out so far . 

So the drama continues ! 

Does the drama ever stop? I feel like nothing is ever resolved when it comes to winter model watching.

More runs needed  

[tight isobar]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

No resolution tonight given the wild differences upstream between the models out so far . 

So the drama continues ! 

they’ve (models)- got their lipstick on.. but are only showing a bit of leg- we wanna see the thighs, and backside ..@ the tease continues!!!

[TSNWK]

4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

No resolution tonight given the wild differences upstream between the models out so far . 

So the drama continues ! 

think I'm ok with that - rather that then momentum for less cold to build.