Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived

[tight isobar]

8 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Op towards the mild end of the ensembles this morning, 

Extreme scatter after the 18th.

I don't think the relaxation of cold is guaranteed yet, but looks the trend at thee moment 

The ML takes an abundance of members on uptick!. Scanning through the local plots @ Aberdeen/ Birmingham/ London..! The 850 notifications are all onboard @ cold mix out. But for me this is what I wished for, The rotational gains are for “wanting “ And give the backstretch forcing a breath... then it’s pump n go again- then look for sharpening on vortex delivery and height placement ...the game is on The Pacific fist is our friend this season.....

Edited December 10, 2022 by tight isobar

[BlueHedgehog074]

As I’m sure has probably been mentioned by a lot people in the past, changes to a milder/less colder outlook still feels fairly comfortably far away to get too alarmed about yet (but to be fair some of the possible trends being picked up towards a less cold/milder period is getting apparent). 

With this not being too certain at the moment, then how long any less cold/milder period lasts won’t seem certain either.

For the sake of it though, I hope any break to less colder or milder conditions goes off with a snowy bang.

[nick sussex]

Not the excitement of last nights ECM as the upstream pattern isn’t as condusive . Without the nudge se of heights into the Atlantic the lack of forcing allows the Atlantic low to phase with shortwave energy near the UK.

Having said that it’s not miles away from being good and it wouldn’t take much for the cold air to hang on.

The GFS is quite different upstream barreling low pressure further east and it’s harder to see a cold extension without more major changes .

So still a chance of a cold extension but the odds have increased somewhat so far today .

It could still change and there’s time for that given the timeframes involved .

[Lukesluckybunch]

Same theme from ICON at 120..keeping things very cold..2m temps even colder then 0z at 120

[TEITS]

1 minute ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

As I’m sure has probably been mentioned by a lot people in the past, changes to a milder/less colder outlook still feels fairly comfortably far away to get too alarmed about yet (but to be fair some of the possible trends being picked up towards a less cold/milder period is getting apparent). 

With this not being too certain at the moment, then how long any less cold/milder period lasts won’t seem certain either.

For the sake of it though, I hope any break to less colder or milder conditions goes off with a snowy bang.

Unlikely to be a snowy breakdown.

Quick summary from me is the less cold spell next weekend looks like being very shortlived. The ridge of high pressure bringing the S,lys will be shunted E and be replaced by low pressure. However because of the pressure remaining relatively high across Iceland/Greenland, the position of the jet stream and the passing of the low pressure will see the UK returning back to colder N/NE,lys. The likes of Scotland will hardly notice any warming up.

[Lukesluckybunch]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Not the excitement of last nights ECM as the upstream pattern isn’t as condusive . Without the nudge se of heights into the Atlantic the lack of forcing allows the Atlantic low to phase with shortwave energy near the UK.

Having said that it’s not miles away from being good and it wouldn’t take much for the cold air to hang on.

The GFS is quite different upstream barreling low pressure further east and it’s harder to see a cold extension without more major changes .

So still a chance of a cold extension but the odds have increased somewhat so far today .

It could still change and there’s time for that given the timeframes involved .

Where do you think the jet would be heading at 240 on ECM..would the low engage with the trough to the northeast..or would the Azores high take over?

[nick sussex]

2 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Where do you think the jet would be heading at 240 on ECM..would the low engage with the trough to the northeast..or would the Azores high take over?

I’d expect the next low upstream to disrupt energy se wards . I don’t see the Azores high being a factor at that point . The day ten really isn’t far from being a very nice chart .

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Same theme from ICON at 120..keeping things very cold..2m temps even colder then 0z at 120

Two things 

a) the first feature running across n France much further south than it’s last run which is exoected

b) the jet in the west Atlantic is not recurving back towards Nova Scotia which means that system is now looks close to the other models 

[nick sussex]

I’m very dubious of the GFS upstream . What it does with that low crossing the states .

I think the 00hrs is a non starter and NCEP don’t think much of it or the previous few runs of the GFS .

The GFS wasn’t included past day 4 in their deliberations.

Edited December 10, 2022 by nick sussex

[TSNWK]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Two things 

a) the first feature running across n France much further south than it’s last run which is exoected

b) the jet in the west Atlantic is not recurving back towards Nova Scotia which means that system is now looks close to the other models 

Thanks. So conclude from 2nd sentence thst this mornings 180 icon  potential for cold extension is a big outsider ?

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Thanks. So conclude from 2nd sentence thst this mornings 180 icon  potential for cold extension is a big outsider ?

Probably 

a cursory glance through the eps NH plots reveals that the Alaskan ridge could be a monster feature in week 2. It’s pretty much the retrogression of the scandi ridge from late November that has worked its way around the NH and ends up over Alaska.  if it makes it towards the pole and splits the tpv then our propensity to Greenland heights rises could make for an interesting solution …….

[IDO]

The GFS 06z op going with the 30-40% of GEFS with the SE/S getting some snow Sun-Mon:

Accumulations: 

[IDO]

Manchester Airport closed due to heavy snowfall, a small feature that popped up:

Congrats to Manchester (M62) viewers!

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, IDO said:

Manchester Airport closed due to heavy snowfall, a small feature that popped up:

Congrats to Manchester (M62) viewers!

That finger of snowfall from liverpool to Manchester and beyond was shown on ec ops from yesterday morning onwards. It’s verified about fifteen/twenty miles south 

Edited December 10, 2022 by bluearmy

[clark3r]

5 minutes ago, IDO said:

The GFS 06z op going with the 30-40% of GEFS with the SE/S getting some snow Sun-Mon:

Accumulations: 

Still a low chance then 

[chiffer]

Just now, bluearmy said:

That finger of snowfall from liverpool to Manchester and beyond was shown on ec ops from yesterday morning. It’s verified about twenty miles south 

Plenty of snowfall in Merseyside too, had been slightly right.

[IDO]

Just now, clark3r said:

Still a low chance then 

...wait for the GEFS to see if it has increased in the ensembles. The good news is the chance is still there.

[feb1991blizzard]

6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

That finger of snowfall from liverpool to Manchester and beyond was shown on ec ops from yesterday morning. It’s verified about twenty miles south 

yes, there is still some to the North of it though, ive got a very slight covering but would have been an inch if it would have tracked further North.

Edited December 10, 2022 by feb1991blizzard

[kold weather]

Definate trend towards somewhat milder 850hpa temps, but I'm far from convinced its going to be lasting all that long, especially with the cold pool really still close by.

Regardless, we have an other 7-10 days of cold surface temperatures and I think we will again see a tendency towards some sort of Greenland high feature near Xmas. I doubt it will be as strong but with the cold pool being so close even a  modest feature will probably do the trick this time (thats a feature we see in very cold winters of the past, big blocking followed by weak wedge blocking that keeps reintroducing the colder air even if its dislodged. 

[Anthony Burden]

Morning all,ECM/GFS going for some less cold air pushing up next weekend from Atlantic low before then very cold snow in places and severe frosts,not bad for early December.Lots of swings and roundabouts in regards to the unreliable time frame could well be a Christmas to remember in terms of cold and snow fingers crossed a definite chance.

[That ECM]

1 hour ago, Kentish Snowman in Yorks said:

 

Yes an uptick in cold options in the lead up to the big day on this morning's GFS ensemble runs.

Maybe a temporary relaxation of the cold before it bites back in time for Christmas?   

 Slightly stronger heights to nw and low not as east.

Edited December 10, 2022 by That ECM

[sheikhy]

Gfs looking different at 150 hours again!!underestimatimg the cold air over the uk?!!i did say this aint over yet!!!

Edited December 10, 2022 by sheikhy

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

GFS 06z far more interesting next Fri as the LP in Atlantic further south and being squeezed by nudge of HP from Greenland

 

BFTP

[TSNWK]

3 minutes ago, That ECM said:

 Slightly stronger heights to nw and low not as east.

Yes. Less phasing ofctge atlantic low with trough to our north. Probably delaying the inevitable by a day I guess  

[That ECM]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

Yes. Less phasing ofctge atlantic low with trough to our north. Probably delaying the inevitable by a day I guess  

Maybe but I honestly think that this is difficult to model that far out. As I said earlier I’m not convinced this is done yet. We will see.